Winter Wizard

Pivoting to Bar Harbor and will likely move north from there on Eclipse Day. The farther east you can get, the better I think. 

I decided to abandon ship in Texas and opt for New England. Logistically pretty easy to pull off, and it's hard to ignore the data. I actually think DFW area northeastward to southern Illinois could also be a sweet spot since they're between the two shortwaves. Best of luck everyone. 

I was supposed to go to Texas for this but decided to pull the plug and stick to New England. Aiming for Maine since I think the eastern side of the blocking ridge has the best odds of surviving any last second trends. 

I decided to pull the plug and go to Northern New England instead of Texas. Logistically is pretty easy to switch, and I think the omega block should hold strong, at least if you're in Vermont and Maine.

I actually think Arkansas to southern Illinois may also be a sweet spot sitting in between the troughs. Best of luck everyone. 

49 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

What is your reroute plan if you needed to? We are flying into Dallas and landing at 9:00ish that morning and getting a rental car….we’d have about 3 hours to get rental and go to a target but that’s only gonna buy us like 100 miles radius tops, which if there’s significant clouds won’t work probably…..I’m getting nervous for sure….we spent way too much dough on the flight and it’s part of a larger vacation where we leave Dallas that night to Reno for snowboard vacation in Tahoe….the logistics are a nightmare…..

Were you prepared to fly elsewhere or get in earlier and drive further?

So the plan is to fly into San Antonio on Thursday and leave Tuesday - I've had that flight and hotel booked for months. If we get rerouted, I think the most likely plan would be to spend Sunday driving toward AR. If it turns out we need to be in MO/IL, may actually end up leaving Saturday or just get up at the crack of dawn and push as far as we can. Ideally, if we have to move, it would be within reasonable distance of STL or MEM, so I'd fly from there to San Antonio Tuesday evening, then push my flight back to Wednesday evening. 

The absolute last resort would be to fly into New England and head north but logistically that's very difficult for our group, who's coming from all over the US. 

Any chance you could get in earlier?

I don't think the cloud cover maps are worth anything at this lead, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous for TX. Pretty overwhelming signal for at least some cloud cover if not precip at the leeside of the trough. Need that thing to hold off 24 hours or so.

Odds have of sunny skies have definitely increased in New England and near the Lakes with the ridge, but I caution that mesoscale processes that can't be sniffed yet have often ruined sunny days. I would not really feel comfortable on the northern edge just knowing climo. 

I'm staying in San Antonio but bracing for a backup in Arkansas. Backup to the backup is in Illinois or Missouri. And final option would be Boston to northern New England. Hopefully doesn't come to that.

Deterministic models tend to vastly overestimate cloud cover in the long range. We won't truly have an idea what the situation will be until we start to get into hi-resolution model territory. I would not be concerned on the southern edge of the path yet, nor would I be spiking the football in New England or near the Lakes. There are lots of ways that this could still go wrong on the mesoscale.

I say this as someone flying to San Antonio, who is prepared to reroute if need be. 

When I first saw the headline I imagined it was like the Philly bridge collapse last year and that it was only a small segment of a bridge that would be repaired in a few weeks. Seeing the entire thing collapsed made my jaw drop. I've taken that bridge a few times to go home when I lived in Maryland, and whenever I drove on that or the Bay Bridge at night, I always felt a little uneasy for that reason. I've felt that way ever since the Minneapolis bridge collapse a while back. Just a terrible tragedy and there are going to be significant supply chain and economic ramifications around here. Not to mention traffic through the tunnels, which are a major artery for East Coast travel, will be even more of a nightmare.

40 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m flying in Friday night and spending Saturday in SA. Driving west a couple hours for Sunday and Monday, and back to SA Tuesday and Wednesday.

Nice. I'll be flying in Thursday and staying until Tuesday. Sunday and Monday will depend on weather conditions, but probably going to be somewhere within a few hours of downtown. Very excited, never been to that area before. 

I'll be in San Antonio for this. Would be nice to run into some of you folks down there. 

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

3k looks really good. Both NAMs look good with precip. What's the deal with Kuchera? 12:1-15:1 rates are what I thought we were expecting? I would expect the clown maps to be throwing out 6-8+, not actually giving us less than 10:1 rates.

Temps are basically at freezing near the cities. Once you move toward mountains and the Mason-Dixon Line, different story. 

I think this looks good for another region wide advisory event, would put 2-4” as a starting point for most. Still room for a bit more upside, and I think we’ll see pockets of 6”+ near the Mason-Dixon Line. Perhaps a lite version of 1/19? I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a last second tick north but most should be immune from that.

Um?

Nothing but white rain in Somerville. 

HRRR and RAP are both trending toward the Euro clearly at 18z. Not just in terms of south, but in terms of withering away the dynamics. This one is slipping away. 

I hate to say it, but there is a pathway for the Euro/UK to be right if the weakening trend continues. Trim back the dynamics of the storm, and it becomes harder to overcome a marginal airmass. 

Hard to bet against the majority of guidance in favor of an outlier, but this raises a red flag to me. Models seem to really be struggling with the convection. I'm holding the line for a significant snowstorm for all of SNE, but with more caution. 

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

valley floor vs 500-1000ft can mean the difference between 0 and 10" in many events, sometimes within the same town. And with this type of marginal shit airmass you're probably gonna need it. I'm not bailing yet well see what tonights runs look like, but it's looking kinda bleak for the CT shoreline..need a lot to go right

I agree with you on this one, this airmass is poor and I would keep expectations very low near the coast. I do think everyone will changeover at the end as colder air advects, but the question is, would that be too late for anything appreciable? It can work with a Euro like amped solution, but not so much if it's weaker like some of the other models. 

This is one of the most thread the needle storms I've ever seen. 

I'm told we have between 4 and 5 inches at our house in Wilmington. I no longer live there, but nice to see the area finally get a WSW event. Haven't seen one there since March 2018. 

This storm ticks all the boxes you want…fresh injection of Arctic air and deepening vort passing to the south. I think it looks good for another moderate event forum wide with some room to go up. Consider me bullish. 

Looks good for area wide 2-4. Some could eke out a bit more depending on banding. 

Mixing issues near the coast otherwise Euro looked sweet for most people. Getting closer to locking in a nice hit. 

The trailing vort over the Deep South tells the story here...it's more progressive, so the trough turns negative sooner, and that allows our storm to deepen further. The ceiling has been raised with this one. 

Wow, that's a crusha. 




 

Hour 108 looks pretty juicy too with the stronger storm just off the Cape. May open up the door for a longer duration event as this continues to throw moisture back toward the coast. Perhaps that could make up for a potential messy start?