Wxoutlooksblog

I think maybe I do actually. I do not know exact timing. But given the computer model output of the last few days it seems to me that the pattern is trying very hard to change. The blocking has to decrease to allow that to happen and something has to trigger the blocking to break down. And I can now see several ways that it might occur. The maps go back and forth and I think the GFS frankly is in a bit of a rush trying to change the pattern, it might be slower and later on. But the GEFS has been trending warmer with less blocking for the passed several runs and the EPS towards the end of its runs has begun trending that way as well. There is uncertainty and the blocking could return quickly. But if we're in a different spot in the flow and the blocking returns with our being under WAR, it's a whole new ballgame. And that's how we'd get a very long duration heatwave. WX/PT

Why do you say this? It's July 4th. We could get a ten day heatwave from July 24th to August 3rd and nobody would remember that we hadn't had a heatwave yet at this point. WX/PT

There's a chance but I wouldn't bet on it. WX/PT

Dew points seem to be dropping slowly from west to east. I think the t-storm threat is primarily north and east. If the cirrus were to thin out Central Park could still have an outside shot at 90 today. I think they also have an outside shot Tuesday ahead of the next cold front and t-storm threat. WX/PT

I think some locations from NYC south and west will hit 90 on the 7th or 8th. It will depend on the coverage of storms with the warm front then cold front. I think there are more *possible* 90 degree days than initially meets the eye. WX/PT

Just wait until we get that ridge over us in August. WX/PT

Almost all of the models are timing the front for Saturday mid-day. Tomorrow night kind of a pre-frontal trough will most likely ignite storms. The question being will there be enough sun to lift the temperatures to hot levels Saturday before the storms pop back up along the front as it passes to our south. WX/PT

It probably is not a question of "if" but a question of "when". Now the cracked up GFS which at this point has ZERO support (someday it will be right, maybe) is saying goodbye to the blocking around July 10th as it builds the ridge out west eastward over and around what was originally a cool Canadian HP on July 8th. If you cancel the blocking this is actually a logical outcome and transition. The question being is it real? The answer at this point in time is "probably not". We'll keep an eye on the ensembles for any developing support of this idea but frankly I doubt we'll see it this early. Later on? There's a better chance IMO. WX/PT

The big quesstion now has to be will the dome of heat which has dominated the center of the CONUS stay there most of the remainder of the summer or will it finally shift to cover the northeastern states including NYC during the second half of July and August? It has remained nearly frozen in the same place for the better part of the last 6 weeks with a little piece of it breaking off into our region for a day or two every ten or so days. If it is to shift to cover the northeast states later in the summer exactly what will be the mechanism to cause that shift and how will it occur? Will the ridge retrograde further and further allowing WAR to work its way in from the south and east or will blocking over the North Atlantic subside allowing the ridge to expand and build in from the west? Or will we remain in this relatively average temperature pattern (below average over parts of New England) with heat every ten days or so throughout summer? WX/PT

Don't be so sure. For now yes there's no heat in sight. But remember, 1955 started out very very slowly in terms of heat and featured a blocking pattern like we've had this June. And they ended up with 14 90+ days in July and 10 90+ days in August. Frankly, if the pattern does flip, you can reverse that for this summer (if the pattern flips) and make it 10 in July and 14 in August, then add a few in September. It *could* happen, not saying that it will. WX/PT

Again, heat doesn't have a chance to build as cold front approaches. WX/PT

A kind of shriveled up shrunken ridge and low pressure off the Carolinas does not bode well for heat. Just days ago the heat ridge on the models stretched from coast to coast and up at least to the US/Canadian border. Now it's a mini ridge over the nations' mid section. WX/PT

Heat is generally considered to be 90+ temps. There are lots of problems with getting that right now particularly in NYC. The heat ridge is out west and there's an absence of WAR. There will also be a stationary front or trough setting up somewhere near the eastern seaboard acting as a conduit for waves of low pressure and/or possibly some tropical cyclone development down the road. All in all it's a pretty bleak picture for heat at this point in time. Yes there could be some briefly warm/muggy conditions over the next week or so but it won't last. WX/PT

Cool/wet pattern continues with no signs of heat in the northeast on any of the overnight operational model runs. WX/PT

GFS has July 4h weekend hazy hot and humid but from what we've seen the last two weeks that means about as much as the tooth fairy. WX/PT

I could see this kind of weather (maybe not quite this extreme) happening in several episodes over the next 2-3 weeks. There are some indications we might heat up a little at some point over the July 4th holiday weekend time-frame but most of the time the ridge is out west and we have cool high pressure systems moving e-se from central Canada and a stalled out frontal boundary setting up just offshore with waves of low pressure developing along it. We may squeeze in a day or two of warmer more summer-like conditions here and there but at the moment I'm not seeing any heatwaves prior to the second or third week of July. If this pattern were not to change, we could go the whole summer without a heatwave. I do not think that will happen but you never know. WX/PT

This picture has no heat. Maybe raw easterly winds, lots of clouds and dare I say rain. But it's the GFS which has been a joke so maybe these maps are a joke too. Plenty of heat out west. WX/PT

Most of the very latest guidance is downplaying heat for next week. The tri-state region is on the very outskirts of the ridge with frequent rounds of storms. Given ensemble trends and extrapolating forward the ridge seems more and more at least for the first half of this summer to be anchoring itself out west. Generally, this set up would usually favor a cooler 2014 type summer. But given the Euro seasonal forecast, maybe we here in the northeast are looking at primarily a second half summer from the second or third week of July on. WX/PT

Tonight with the exception of the CMC, the models so far are heating up. It's kind of a tug of war between the Euro and the GFS which has by running ridiculously hot two runs in a row defied the Euro. The Euro idea of either a big cut-off dropping south from eastern Canada and chilling us until almost the end of June vs. the GFS idea of recurring heat. Up until tonight the ECMWF camp was gaining momentum and traction but the cooler camp seems to have hit a little hiccup in that the GFS which caved to the coolness last night has reverted back to heat for two consecutive runs. Also the GEFS is heating up a bit. If tonight's Euro shows any signs of caving to the GFS, it will be kind of a coup. I wouldn't bet on it, however. WX/PT

Major changes continue on the all the models particularly the GFS which had us in chilly weather June 18th-19th and now we're mid-upper 80s if not 90. Map features adjusting by anywhere from 300 miles to 1500 miles a good argument to pay no attention. WX/PT

The first heatwave this summer IMO could wait until mid July and we could still end up with over 20 90+ days. In the current pattern we'd only likely get a day or two of heat at the most during June and much of the latest guidance isn't even particularly favorable about that. But I do think we'll probably squeeze out a day or two of 90 in June. But a heatwave before the second week of July at this point just doesn't seem very likely. Of course things can change and the maps (ensembles and operationals) have been changing erratically and will probably continue to do so. WX/PT

The models are definitely in a state of flux and I suspect large scale changes will continue to occur over the next several days. The difference in heights on the west coast from model to model is significant and has an impact on what happens in the east. I suspect a piece of the big heat ridge will break off and move east then there'll be a cold front then another piece breaks off and moves east and so on until we get into a little more sustained heat during July. WX/PT

I do not know if we're yet getting an accurate idea as exactly how this summer will turn out. Just a tiny shift in the position of the heat ridge and the blocking will make a world of difference particularly in terms of number of 90+ days in the cities of the northeast. And the thunderstorm activity can also make a huge difference since it has the potential to be extremely active with lots of severe weather in our area. If we get stuck under a ring of fire the lower levels can only warm so much before t-storm activity caps temperatures in the upper 80s. Depending on exactly where that active zone sets up can be the difference between 30 90+ degree days and 10. WX/PT

Sometime between June 14th-18th it's looking as though it's going to get to be at least quite warm, maybe hot. But it appears there'll be a very active ROF at the leading of this hot air mass and any kind of wave of low pressure development or stronger upper air disturbance moving over and down around the big ridge can delay the eastward progression of the heat ridge. WX/PT

This is fantasy range for the GFS but it may worth noting that this heat was gone on 3 out of the last 4 runs of the model. Let's wait a few more days before believing this kind of thing. If it's right, we will have 90+ days during the middle of June. WX/PT