Sydney Claridge

New tornado warning in effect for McKinney and NE Collin County.  Rotation signature and small "hook" roughly over US 75 and the Sam Rayburn Tollway.

EDIT: strong winds and almost-horizontal rain are now hitting my location in west Fort Worth.

And here comes Round 2.  There's already been so much damage that I hope things don't get worse, but this line is turning quite severe pretty rapidly.

Quote

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

TXC121-367-439-497-210545-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0334.191021T0441Z-191021T0545Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1141 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Wise County in north central Texas...
  Southern Denton County in north central Texas...
  Parker County in north central Texas...
  Northern Tarrant County in north central Texas...

* Until 1245 AM CDT.

* At 1140 PM CDT, a line of severe thunderstorms was located from
  near Denton to Mineral Wells, moving east at 40 mph.  A 75 mph
  wind gust was reported at Mineral Wells Airport in the last few
  minutes.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to
           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
  Fort Worth, Arlington, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Euless,
  Bedford, Grapevine, Haltom City, Keller, Hurst, The Colony,
  Southlake, Weatherford, Watauga, Colleyville, Benbrook, Corinth,
  Saginaw and Mineral Wells.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for north central
Texas.

For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3329 9684 3299 9703 3271 9720 3268 9806
      3291 9806 3327 9740
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 264DEG 36KT 3295 9758

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
$$

Dunn

18 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

 

Dunno how accurate this is but the Home Depot near 75 and coit has definitely been mentioned as being destroyed so that part checks out

So far, from what I've heard and seen from videos, this tornado was a stovepipe rather than a wedge.  Some of the traffic backups, of course, would extend outside of the damaged area.  The question will be where the damage path is within that blue area.

That's not to say you can't get damage well away from the visible tornado itself (since the width of the tornadic winds can extend outside that) or even straight-line wind damage from a rear-flank downdraft.

7 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

This is about 5 miles south of my location by St. Marks School. Whole area is heavily populated and am dreading what morning will bring. Also worth noting this thing didn't even occur in either the enhanced or hatched risk areas

Definitely a significant tornado for sure.  The monetary damages will probably be quite high as this tornado moved through an affluent neighborhood (Preston Hollow area), but less so than if this tornado had moved through a major commercial district (such as the one at 635 and the Tollway).  I just hope that everyone in the path is okay, though hearing reports of building collapses leaves me at least somewhat pessimistic.

The northernmost area of DFW (Denton, Frisco, etc.) was actually under the enhanced and hatched risk, so it was close.

PDS tornado warning continued for NE Dallas County and SE Collin County for a tornado over Richardson.  There are now two (!) rotation signatures, one over Richardson and the other one over Garland.

New SPC MD suggests that an "intense" tornado may be ongoing: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2091.html
 

Quote

   Mesoscale Discussion 2091
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0908 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

   Areas affected...North Dallas Metropolitan Area

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 676...

   Valid 210208Z - 210245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 676 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado is currently ongoing across northern Dallas
   County. The environment is supportive of a strong tornado, with
   additional tornadoes possible downstream in the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar signatures from KFWS reveal an intense
   supercell characterized by a 0.5 degree rotational velocity between
   60 and 65 kt. A tornadic debris signature has also been noted on
   recent radar scans. This signature is occurring in an environment
   characterized by STP between 3 and 4. Previous signatures within
   similar environments produced damage-estimated wind speeds from 120
   to 160 mph and a confidence is high for an intense tornado.

   ..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/21/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32879602 32779632 32769683 32909703 33059702 33139702
               33169684 33219651 33189612 32979590 32879602 

Confirmed tornado over Love Field area per WFAA live broadcast, with tornadic debris signature just NW of the the Park Cities.  That could rack up a lot of damage pretty quickly depending on its strength.

EDIT: it seems that there is a debris ball.  PDS tornado warning now in effect.  This is getting to be quite a serious situation.

Tornado warning now in effect for northern Dallas County, including the Park Cities and Garland.

21 minutes ago, Kyle-1 said:

Storms moving into Dallas are starting to get a suspicious look to them.

Looks to be a hook (possibly) trying to form on the radar over Southlake.  That storm seems to be intensifying too.

EDIT: new SPC MD seems to suggest that then environment is favorable for tornadoes, though fortunately these storms seem to be struggling to show more significant rotation: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2090.html

A hatched tornado risk area is now present on the new SPC outlook within most of the 10% area (in NE TX from just north of DFW, SE OK, and W AR).

EDIT: and there is now a tornado warning west of La Grange, much further south along I-10.

Looks like storm initiation may be starting SW of DFW (around Stephenville) based on radar and satellite imagery.

1 hour ago, juliacarolecat said:

Columbus, OH now included in the Enhanced region for the latest Day 2 outlook.

Will be interesting to see if the initial convention will clear away fast enough for substantial destabilization in the afternoon.

Definitely noticed a few models potentially showing a tornado threat for southeastern Ohio (today's 09z RAP, the last few NAM3K runs), and perhaps into central Ohio (especially in the last few NAM runs) as well, that is if some isolated storms can get going.  These models show some high EHI values in these areas (and the 12z NAM3K extends high EHI into western PA as well).  GFS is much more bearish though.

Would like to see some more model consistency, but over the last day or so the models suggesting a potential tornado threat do seem to have reduced the amount of forecasted VBV in the Upper Ohio Valley region.

Tonight's 0z NAM and ECMWF are trying to bring mid-60s dewpoints into Ohio for Sunday, though the NAM shows some VBV issues (I don't have access to ECMWF upper-level winds).  SPC has a broad ENH risk from GA/AL all the way up to southern Ohio (just south of KCMH).  The NAM and ECMWF bring this warm sector further north than the ENH risk, up to at least Mansfield or so (around the north end of the Slight risk or so), and ECMWF gets 60-degree dewpoints as far north as Cleveland.  Would expect to see the ENH moved north (to include Dayton and especially Columbus) if NAM and/or ECMWF verify.

SPC says damaging winds are the primary threat, though they predict tornadoes will be possible near and west of the Appalachians.  I'm slightly skeptical with the VBV issues (and with the GFS being less aggressive into the OH/KY/WV area), but we'll see what happens.  This would be with the same system responsible for tomorrow's severe in east Texas and LA/AR (and that is where the bulk of the tornado threat with this system will likely be).

The 6z NAM run is a little less aggressive in the Ohio area I would say, with slightly lower dewpoints and lower temperatures, and less EHI present.

The GFS-based models (GFS and GFS-FV3) are placing the warm front with the Saturday system just south of DFW on the 0z runs.  Those models do seem to have moved the front's location slightly further north with each of the last few runs.  The 0z runs puts DFW in the upper-50s for dewpoints with mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints just to the south and SE.

It will be interesting to see how far north the warm front can come, as well as what the NAM has to say about it as it comes into range.

1 hour ago, cstrunk said:

It's not over yet, but if doesn't look like there will be any snow here this winter. 

I'm ready for severe weather season. 

Me too.  GFS is showing a pattern suggestive of cold waves in the Northern and Central Plains (along with surging cold fronts) but I'm not counting on that to translate into the Southern Plains as I've always noticed a cold bias with the GFS in the longer ranges.

And we're down to a Slight Risk now.  According to the reports so far the Moderate Risk seems like a bust, aside from the Columbus tornado.  (there's not many severe reports in the former MDT zone)

Just wanted to pitch in and say that today's 0z NAM3K solution looks a bit ominous for W TN and N MS, with broken cells traversing across a fairly high-EHI environment. 0Z HRRR is even more ominous, showing isolated cells from south-central MS up into central IL (with dewpoints >= 60F even there), with particularly severe-looking cells ahead of the cold front (which itself has broken cells along it) from south-central MS into southernmost KY, though I'm aware that specific model can be somewhat overdone.

33 minutes ago, bjc3395 said:

SPC just put out a day 6 for the event, mentioning tornadoes and damaging winds. 

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a little bit of a Wwd shift but I don’t think this will be all that chaseable regardless. Should be pretty messy.. but definitely has some decent severe potential.  

The other region forum has not a peep about it lol. The winter wx weenies, I tell ya. 

NE Texas is in the Day 6, so they might get involved it seems.  Like you said, barring a westward shift, north-central Texas and DFW probably will not be involved.  Seems like a potential western Dixie and mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio valley event based on the SPC outlook thus far.

1 hour ago, bjc3395 said:

This one won’t garner a ton of interest anytime soon but I’m becoming intrigued of a robust severe weather event happening across Louisiana into states to its east next weekend. General pattern progression favors the increase of low level moisture with decent instability on tap by Saturday next week. A significant wave looks to take on a neutral-negative tilt as it ejects into the Plains, inducing substantial cyclogenesis as a result. Won’t really go into more details.. but this one looks to target my forecast/WWA AOR, so I’m a bit peeped for that.  

I was noticing that on the model runs as well.  What are the probabilities that north-central and NE TX gets involved here?  (though it's probably a bit early to say)  Today's 12z and 18z GFS runs are at least hinting at the idea (though somewhat earlier in the day), but that is just two runs of the same model.  The potential event is still over a week out so the models will definitely become more refined as it draws closer, and perhaps more questions can be answered then.

I cannot help but notice that the models are depicting a fairly active pattern over the next few weeks, with multiple systems off the Pacific coast (some fairly strong), and some staying fairly strong as they emerge onto the Plains.  If we can get sufficient moisture return (the big "if" in February), perhaps we might be entering a favorable pattern for severe thunderstorms soon if the models verify.

8 hours ago, cheese007 said:

Slight risk extending into DFW metro. Spring getting started early I guess

And the slight risk is back into the DFW metro as well, and even now extends south of DFW for wind and hail.  Highest tornado probabilities (5% within 25 miles) are in the northern section of the metro northwards to the Red River and over towards NE TX, SE OK, and central AR.

It's also interesting to see the elevated thunderstorms in NW OK, where there is a severe thunderstorm warning in effect for an area where some of the surface temperatures are hovering near the freezing mark.  Now if only that activity was in the warm sector...

I know it's still early, but I'm already starting to get a bit concerned for this year's severe weather season with the arctic outbreaks happening over the eastern US, especially if the whole pattern with western ridging and eastern troughing gets established; to my understanding, this pattern ruined the severe season many times in the middle of this decade.  With drought expanding in the west there may be more concern for western ridging.  That said, if a western ridge can be combined with a ridge over the East Coast and troughing in the central U.S. (as the aforementioned CPC outlook seems to suggest) then maybe we will get several storm systems that move from the southern Plains towards the Great Lakes region.  To my (limited) understanding this would be better with La Niña conditions though if you wanted to bet on tornado outbreaks.

I'm going to be a bit more optimistic here and guess first high risk on April 11th in the southern Plains, with 1200 tornadoes overall.

5 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Models are doing terrible on surface temps today. They are running way too warm. Which in turn leads to forecasts including the NWS being way warm.

Agreed.  Even just looking at the RAP used on the SPC Mesoanalysis site, that model placed the freezing line about three counties too far west.  At least most of DFW seems to be above freezing (though just barely) now, though some places in Tarrant and Denton counties still seem to be at or just below the freezing mark.

6 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Looks like the freezing line is pushing a bit further through DFW now. Hearing reports of icing on elevated roads in western and northern DFW. Temps are nearing freezing in Dallas County now. 

Interesting note regarding the location of the freezing line.  Some of the personal weather stations on Wundermap (accuracy is a concern though) are averaging around 32 in portions of southern Dallas County (and close to it in Irving and NW Dallas County), and even in the areas that based on radar data appear to be just plain rain in SE Tarrant are averaging around 32 as well.

Here in west Fort Worth a light coating of ice has formed on my tree branches.  It will be interesting to see how far west the freezing line shifts over the next few hours, and part of me wonders if it will not shift as far west as forecasted.  Hopefully the freezing line shifts west out of DFW in the next couple of hours as forecasted, before there is an opportunity for ice accumulation to become a major issue.

I'm on the west side of Fort Worth and there is currently a light rain with temperatures just below freezing (31F), with most of Tarrant County (aside from the easternmost portions) also at or just below freezing.  Paved surfaces seem wet and not icy at the present moment, although there does seem to be a little bit of ice on surfaces that are less likely to retain warmth (like leaves and the metal railing just outside my house).  Concern for icing seems to be further west where precipitation has yet to develop (but will), as per SPC mesoscale discussion.