Sydney Claridge

It looks like a storm is trying to go up south of Mineral Wells, TX, west of DFW, within a recovered airmass behind the MCS.  Not severe at the moment, but there seem to be some good parameters in place there per SPC Mesoanalysis (supercell composite, EHI, CAPE, shear), and it's not even within the general thunderstorm outline area.  It would probably encounter some issues as it reaches the more stable air over DFW though.

I'm getting sunshine in west Fort Worth now so there's definitely instability building ahead of this new cell.

EDIT: SPC has issued an MD regarding the possibility for large hail in the DFW area:
 

Quote

   Mesoscale Discussion 0676
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0637 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

   Areas affected...portions of north Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182337Z - 190030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A storm or two may pose a brief threat for large hail this
   evening across the MCD area.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has developed in Palo Pinto
   County TX this evening amidst strong low level convergence along the
   dryline. Earlier convection has generally resulted in surface
   inhibition, though latest surface observations have shows some
   recovery across a small area from near MWL toward Collin, Dallas and
   Ellis counties. Temperatures have rebounded from the mid 60s into
   the low and mid 70s and dewpoints were in the upper 60s to near 70
   as of 23z. As a result, a narrow corridor strong instability atop a
   weakly capped boundary layer exists just downstream from the surface
   dryline. While convection is not expected to be widespread, a couple
   of storms could pose a threat for large hail in the short-term
   across the MCD area. At this time, a watch is not expected, but
   trends will be monitored closely.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/18/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33549770 33659750 33659724 33609695 33379678 33029672
               32709673 32599686 32479707 32439752 32489790 32639816
               32809820 33119802 33429784 33549770 

EDIT 2: The cell seems to be struggling to strengthen, so I'm not sure if it will amount to anything.

And while we're at it, there is a tornado warning ongoing in San Angelo, TX right now.  Surprised no one has mentioned this given the potential impacts to a major population center should a tornado touch down.

EDIT: and now there's a tornado warning for Abilene, TX as well with the storm moving into that area, so now another major population center is under a tornado warning.
 

I'm in the DFW area and we already have a (non-severe) thunderstorm complex knocking on our door right now.

I wonder if we will manage to clear out earlier than expected?  That said, there are still storms west of Abilene, one of which is severe, so it doesn't seem like things will clear out.  I believe those storms are the ones that were modeled to form the main MCS, but this complex ahead of them might be problematic as they move eastwards.

4 minutes ago, mob1 said:

The isolated cell north of KFDR is starting to look very impressive on radar. 

Tornado warning now on this storm.

4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Mod threat for today.

Yep, tornado threat ramped up to 15% hatched near and east of Amarillo.

For what it's worth, today's 6z NAM3K (and the 0z) seem to juice things up enough to initiate storms in OK on Wednesday evening.  Today's 6z HRRR (that goes out to 36 hours) puts the MCS' outflow no further south than the northern suburbs of the DFW area at 18z on Wednesday... if that were to verify, seeing an outflow over a populated area does raise my eyebrows just a little bit.

I have noticed some "popcorn" showers forming on radar to the south of the storm complex currently over NW north Texas.  I'm a little surprised that nothing has developed from them (capping?), but part of me is wondering if that could change.  I'm not saying that's going to happen, but I'm just wondering about the possibility.  Seems like some of the echo tops might be trying to come up.

And yet another tornado warning now up west of Wynnewood, OK.

I'm starting to wonder whether this severe thunderstorm watch will need to be replaced with a tornado watch.  We already have 3 active tornado warnings here, 2 with confirmed tornadoes.

Tornado warning polygon over and in the vicinity of Waurika, OK. 

EDIT: tornado confirmed per warning message.

Watch likely for portions of north Texas and southern Oklahoma, per new SPC mesoscale discussion.

SBCAPE is already in excess of 4000 J/kg and MLCAPE above 3500 J/kg at my location in Tarrant County per SPC Mesoanalysis.  I'm wondering if the extreme instability will compensate for lower levels of shear today.

With less SRH modeled for today (but with greater modeled SBCAPE in excess of 4000+ J/kg) I'm starting to think today may be more of concern for damaging winds with MCS potential.  Outflow boundaries can be interesting though; I recall how the April 3, 2012 tornado event over DFW was sparked by the presence of an outflow boundary over the DFW area (not saying that's going to happen though).

Unlike yesterday I'm actually getting sun here on the west side of Fort Worth.  It'll be hard to beat yesterday though with the tornado-warned storms in Parker/Tarrant/Denton counties though, but a more widespread damaging wind event is always a concern.

Starting to wonder about the thunderstorm activity down by Granbury (currently sub-severe) for areas to the ESE of those affected by the tornado warned storms in Tarrant and Denton counties.  If this area of storms can strengthen this would be the next threat for DFW.

7 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said:

Doesn't look like much now, but it is clear of rain at the moment, so it has time to gather itself.

New tornado warning incoming for area of rotation with that storm near Haslet per WFAA livestream.

Just now, J_Prothro said:

Might be another couplet forming out by Ft Worth. Just south of other previously warned one. 

Was about to mention that... looks like some (fairly broad) rotation trying to form near Saginaw.  Would pose a greater threat for highly populated areas if it tries to tighten up.

Strengthening rotation near Azle, TX.

Tornado warning for eastern Parker and NW Tarrant Counties just west of Fort Worth.

9 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said:

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1123328667038486529

I wonder if that is also affecting the storms around Glen Rose right now or not?  It is looking a bit healthier on radar than the ones further west (between Abilene and DFW), though still sub-severe.

Though the main focus is currently on the OK/MO/AR/KS border area, I'm starting to wonder about the storms in Texas, especially the cells west of DFW and around Hico and Glen Rose.  None are severe at the moment, but I have my eye on those storms near Hico and Glen Rose as they are moving towards DFW.  That said, those storms south of Graham (W of DFW) look stronger and would probably be more likely to go severe if they do so.

Just now, pbrussell said:

The storm around Springfield mo is the next one to go

Yep, tornado warning now up on that storm per Wunderground radar (sometimes that will show warnings before the NWS text comes out).

It looks like something may be trying to form SW of DFW now, especially just west of Stephenville.  Will watch to see if this area of showers can form into some thunderstorms, as the atmosphere there seems volatile.

EDIT: and just as I say this, SPC puts out an MD saying that a watch is likely for north-central Texas.

Ada storm seems to have a funnel on it (per KOCO livestream) but the storm seems to be weakening on radar.

New tornado warning up on the storm NE of Ardmore and SE of Sulphur.

Only minor radar returns around my area right now but I'm wondering if something could evolve out of it later today near DFW.  HRRR has been playing on the idea of storms near DFW for quite some time, but that model could be overdoing it.

It looks like convective initiation is trying to take place around Ardmore as well.  I'm wondering if this will try to develop into something more significant, though the best conditions would be later in the day.

EDIT: new tornado warning in northern OK north of Pawhuska.

And here's an SREF forecast this for what it's worth.  60% sigtor probability contour showing up in a small area of southern OK, with a 45% contour across much of central OK and a small area of north-central Texas along the Red River:



I only wish I could find the calibrated SREF that jojo762 speaks of. 

SPC also now has a 10% hatched tornado risk in south-central OK and much of SE OK.  A small area along the Red River in north Texas is also under the 10% hatched risk; furthermore, the slight risk has been shifted back south across all of the DFW metro area, but it seems that the worst will be NW of DFW.

EDIT: and it looks like we have our first tornado warning of the day NE of OKC, in Payne and Lincoln counties.  Not surprised with the fairly high EHI out ahead of that storm cluster in central OK.