Sydney Claridge
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Posts posted by Sydney Claridge
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And here comes Round 2. There's already been so much damage that I hope things don't get worse, but this line is turning quite severe pretty rapidly.
QuoteSevere Thunderstorm WarningTXC121-367-439-497-210545- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0334.191021T0441Z-191021T0545Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1141 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Wise County in north central Texas... Southern Denton County in north central Texas... Parker County in north central Texas... Northern Tarrant County in north central Texas... * Until 1245 AM CDT. * At 1140 PM CDT, a line of severe thunderstorms was located from near Denton to Mineral Wells, moving east at 40 mph. A 75 mph wind gust was reported at Mineral Wells Airport in the last few minutes. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Fort Worth, Arlington, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Euless, Bedford, Grapevine, Haltom City, Keller, Hurst, The Colony, Southlake, Weatherford, Watauga, Colleyville, Benbrook, Corinth, Saginaw and Mineral Wells. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for north central Texas. For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3329 9684 3299 9703 3271 9720 3268 9806 3291 9806 3327 9740 TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 264DEG 36KT 3295 9758 HAIL...<.75IN WIND...70MPH $$ Dunn -
18 minutes ago, cheese007 said:
Dunno how accurate this is but the Home Depot near 75 and coit has definitely been mentioned as being destroyed so that part checks out
So far, from what I've heard and seen from videos, this tornado was a stovepipe rather than a wedge. Some of the traffic backups, of course, would extend outside of the damaged area. The question will be where the damage path is within that blue area.
That's not to say you can't get damage well away from the visible tornado itself (since the width of the tornadic winds can extend outside that) or even straight-line wind damage from a rear-flank downdraft.-
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7 minutes ago, cheese007 said:
This is about 5 miles south of my location by St. Marks School. Whole area is heavily populated and am dreading what morning will bring. Also worth noting this thing didn't even occur in either the enhanced or hatched risk areas
Definitely a significant tornado for sure. The monetary damages will probably be quite high as this tornado moved through an affluent neighborhood (Preston Hollow area), but less so than if this tornado had moved through a major commercial district (such as the one at 635 and the Tollway). I just hope that everyone in the path is okay, though hearing reports of building collapses leaves me at least somewhat pessimistic.
The northernmost area of DFW (Denton, Frisco, etc.) was actually under the enhanced and hatched risk, so it was close.
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PDS tornado warning continued for NE Dallas County and SE Collin County for a tornado over Richardson. There are now two (!) rotation signatures, one over Richardson and the other one over Garland.
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New SPC MD suggests that an "intense" tornado may be ongoing: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2091.html
QuoteMesoscale Discussion 2091 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0908 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Areas affected...North Dallas Metropolitan Area Concerning...Tornado Watch 676... Valid 210208Z - 210245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 676 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado is currently ongoing across northern Dallas County. The environment is supportive of a strong tornado, with additional tornadoes possible downstream in the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...Recent radar signatures from KFWS reveal an intense supercell characterized by a 0.5 degree rotational velocity between 60 and 65 kt. A tornadic debris signature has also been noted on recent radar scans. This signature is occurring in an environment characterized by STP between 3 and 4. Previous signatures within similar environments produced damage-estimated wind speeds from 120 to 160 mph and a confidence is high for an intense tornado. ..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD... LAT...LON 32879602 32779632 32769683 32909703 33059702 33139702 33169684 33219651 33189612 32979590 32879602
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Confirmed tornado over Love Field area per WFAA live broadcast, with tornadic debris signature just NW of the the Park Cities. That could rack up a lot of damage pretty quickly depending on its strength.
EDIT: it seems that there is a debris ball. PDS tornado warning now in effect. This is getting to be quite a serious situation. -
Tornado warning now in effect for northern Dallas County, including the Park Cities and Garland.
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21 minutes ago, Kyle-1 said:
Storms moving into Dallas are starting to get a suspicious look to them.
Looks to be a hook (possibly) trying to form on the radar over Southlake. That storm seems to be intensifying too.
EDIT: new SPC MD seems to suggest that then environment is favorable for tornadoes, though fortunately these storms seem to be struggling to show more significant rotation: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2090.html -
A hatched tornado risk area is now present on the new SPC outlook within most of the 10% area (in NE TX from just north of DFW, SE OK, and W AR).
EDIT: and there is now a tornado warning west of La Grange, much further south along I-10. -
Looks like storm initiation may be starting SW of DFW (around Stephenville) based on radar and satellite imagery.
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On 9/23/2019 at 2:49 PM, beavis1729 said:
Although it’s technically in MT instead of WY, the West Yellowstone area is beautiful. I was there in early June. Mild to warm days, with cool nights. Nearly every night drops into the 40s or lower, even during the heart of summer.
If you like winter, it’s a paradise. Nearly 150” of annual snowfall, with 5-6 months of snow cover in most years. I think the normal high/low in January is around 20/-5, with temps easily hitting the -20s or lower during the colder periods. And the scenery is amazing, especially compared to the suburbs of Chicago.
Agree about low property taxes; I noticed that when looking at homes out there too. Not sure about other economic opportunities, as my focus is on retirement considerations in the next 5-10 years.
On 9/22/2019 at 2:43 PM, Polarbear said:What other pro/cons should we be aware of? Coming from NY we are familar to cold/snow though I suspect these areas see more extended periods of extreme cold than we might be use to. We usually get 2-3 days below zero/ single digit highs and 1-2 nights -10/-15 lows per yr.
Just keep in mind that West Yellowstone's climate is subarctic (by virtue of its elevation), so it will get colder than you are used to in the winter. At your longitude, you would have to get into far northern Ontario or Quebec before you found a subarctic climate, although West Yellowstone would still be (on average) warmer in the winter than those locations are. Though in terms of climatic extremes, West Yellowstone has recorded the coldest temperature of any populated community in the lower 48 states.
The climate in somewhere like Rexburg, ID or Idaho Falls would probably be more manageable, though the surroundings are less scenic.
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I had a tree uprooted in my west Fort Worth neighborhood.
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Area of rotation is to my north (I'm in west Fort Worth).
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Is that cell southwest of Mineral Wells trying to develop some rotation by chance? There might be a couplet near the Palo Pinto Creek Reservoir, though the storm is non-severe at the moment.
EDIT: at least it looked like one for a couple of frames on the radar loop.EDIT 2: Storm may now be developing a hook near Weatherford. Still non-severe.
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KCTV5 livestream might have shown something trying to tighten up around Parkville.
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New tornado emergency including the Bonner Springs and western KC areas.
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The 06z run of the NAM3k is presenting a somewhat-concerning scenario for the DFW area, starting with some fairly discrete storms tomorrow afternoon (they do seem to congeal into a line east of DFW with time). SPC mentions that some tornadoes are possible, provided that the thermodynamics are in place:
QuoteSPC AC 280824 Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TX...FAR SOUTHEAST OK...FAR WESTERN AR... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OH VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across portions of the southern Plains northeastward through the Ozarks Wednesday. More isolated severe storms are expected from the Mid-Mississippi Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Primary features within the upper pattern early Wednesday morning will likely be an upper low centered over NE and a strong high centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft will likely exist between these two features, extending from northern Mexico northeastward into the middle MS Valley and then eastward across the OH Valley. A shortwave trough is expected to move quickly within this band of enhanced flow aloft, moving across the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and reaching the middle MS valley by early Thursday morning. At the surface, low centered over the middle MO Valley early Wednesday will gradually drift eastward while weakening. This eastward motion coupled with the progression of the previously mentioned shortwave trough will help push a cold front southeastward. By 12Z Thursday, this cold front will likely extend from the lower OH Valley southwestward through the Arklatex to the Edwards Plateau. ...Southern Plains...Ozark Plateau... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across west TX at the beginning of the period Wednesday morning, with development aided by a combination of the nocturnal low-level jet and the approaching shortwave trough. Steep lapse rates and strong vertical shear suggest the potential for hail with this early development. This activity is expected to gradually spread northeastward along the frontal boundary, preceding much of the stronger flow aloft and ascent attendant to the advancing shortwave trough. As such, the strength of these storms may be mitigated somewhat while their presence also limits prospects for air mass recovery later during the afternoon/early evening when the shortwave moves through. Overlap between the strengthening low and mid-level winds will result in large, looping hodographs supportive of updraft organization during the late afternoon/early evening. As such, if the thermodynamics are supportive, thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes and very large hail, may develop Wednesday evening across north-central/northeast TX, eastern OK, and western AR. The development of a strong convective line is also possible. Consensus amongst the regional guidance as well as the convection-allowing models is that the air mass will recover and support additional thunderstorm development during the late afternoon and evening. Given this consistency, 30% probability/Enhanced Risk was introduced with this forecast. ...OH Valley...Northern Mid-Atlantic... An organized line may be ongoing over IN with continued eastward progress throughout the day. Thunderstorms are also anticipated in the wake of this convective line as an air mass characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s advects into the region. The strength of the instability will be mitigated by the amount of diurnal heating but even minimal heating should result in enough instability for storm initiation. Strong unidirectional flow aloft will support fast storm motions and potential for multiple bowing line segments. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% SIG - Slight Hail: 30% - Enhanced ..Mosier.. 05/28/2019
I'm hoping this will be my last severe weather event for quite some time; climatologically north-central Texas is at the end of the severe storm season, and it is about time for the summer pattern to take hold. Especially after what happened in Dayton (not saying that will happen in DFW this time around), I'm hoping I will not need to deal with severe storms for a while.
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Was about to mention that storm in SW OK as well. Definitely starting to show that "look" to it. Fairly good ingredients in place too. Wonder if SPC will issue an mesoscale discussion for that area given the storm development happening there.
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Just now, yoda said:
Looks like it made a right turn
That could be concerning if this storm can hold together and head towards the major population centers in NW AR like Bentonville or just north of there.
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Just now, raindancewx said:
My informal measure for severe outbreaks is unusually low-elevation or unusually far south in New Mexico. Quemado, Santa Fe, Taos, Gallup, Grants, Zuni Pueblo all had snow today - some record late accumulating snowfalls were reported, so I wouldn't give up on the tornado outbreak yet, the lows this Spring have been extraordinary.
Definitely noticed the flurry of tornado warnings going up NW of Abilene (including for Hamlin) recently. I am keeping my eye on that area for sure.
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5 minutes ago, Natester said:
Initiation east of Cooperton, Oklahoma. Lets see if they blow up or if they fizzle out. They show up as little tiny showers on KFDR.
Was about to mention that... NWS was putting out significant weather advisories for the areas of thunderstorm initiation. Also mentioning other areas of initiation near Fitzhugh and near Gene Autry, off to the east.
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I know it's just one model, but the 0z HRRR is trying to send up storms as far south as the DFW area. I have an afternoon-shift job, and I'm starting to get concerned about the potential for severe weather here in Fort Worth. Given what I've read it seems most likely to stay in NW TX and OK (and perhaps AR given Quincy Vagell's post), and from what I can tell the other models seem to agree with that perspective.
Wondering if anyone with more expertise might be able to tell if the HRRR might be trying to catch on to something, or if it is overdone for areas this far south. -
Severe thunderstorm warning cancelled for the DFW area as that storm has weakened below severe limits.
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Severe thunderstorm warning now up for eastern Parker and western Tarrant counties in Texas:
QuoteSevere Thunderstorm Warning TXC367-439-190100- /O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0185.190519T0007Z-190519T0100Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 707 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Parker County in north central Texas... Western Tarrant County in north central Texas... * Until 800 PM CDT. * At 706 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Willow Park, or near Weatherford, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Fort Worth, Weatherford, Benbrook, Saginaw, White Settlement, Azle, River Oaks, Sansom Park, Lake Worth, Eagle Mountain, Willow Park, Aledo, Westworth Village, Hudson Oaks, Annetta, Lakeside, Westover Hills, Annetta South and Annetta North. This includes the following highways... Interstate 20 between mile markers 410 and 433. Interstate 30 between mile markers 1 and 11. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3265 9774 3284 9776 3292 9738 3262 9737 TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 267DEG 13KT 3276 9767 HAIL...1.00IN WIND...60MPH $$ 05/And it's a slow mover indeed. Minimally severe at the present moment though.
Severe weather for 10/21-10/23
in Central/Western States
Posted
New tornado warning in effect for McKinney and NE Collin County. Rotation signature and small "hook" roughly over US 75 and the Sam Rayburn Tollway.
EDIT: strong winds and almost-horizontal rain are now hitting my location in west Fort Worth.