Sydney Claridge

The GFS-based models (GFS and GFS-FV3) are placing the warm front with the Saturday system just south of DFW on the 0z runs. Those models do seem to have moved the front's location slightly further north with each of the last few runs. The 0z runs puts DFW in the upper-50s for dewpoints with mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints just to the south and SE. It will be interesting to see how far north the warm front can come, as well as what the NAM has to say about it as it comes into range.

Me too. GFS is showing a pattern suggestive of cold waves in the Northern and Central Plains (along with surging cold fronts) but I'm not counting on that to translate into the Southern Plains as I've always noticed a cold bias with the GFS in the longer ranges.

And we're down to a Slight Risk now. According to the reports so far the Moderate Risk seems like a bust, aside from the Columbus tornado. (there's not many severe reports in the former MDT zone)

Just wanted to pitch in and say that today's 0z NAM3K solution looks a bit ominous for W TN and N MS, with broken cells traversing across a fairly high-EHI environment. 0Z HRRR is even more ominous, showing isolated cells from south-central MS up into central IL (with dewpoints >= 60F even there), with particularly severe-looking cells ahead of the cold front (which itself has broken cells along it) from south-central MS into southernmost KY, though I'm aware that specific model can be somewhat overdone.

NE Texas is in the Day 6, so they might get involved it seems. Like you said, barring a westward shift, north-central Texas and DFW probably will not be involved. Seems like a potential western Dixie and mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio valley event based on the SPC outlook thus far.

I was noticing that on the model runs as well. What are the probabilities that north-central and NE TX gets involved here? (though it's probably a bit early to say) Today's 12z and 18z GFS runs are at least hinting at the idea (though somewhat earlier in the day), but that is just two runs of the same model. The potential event is still over a week out so the models will definitely become more refined as it draws closer, and perhaps more questions can be answered then.

I cannot help but notice that the models are depicting a fairly active pattern over the next few weeks, with multiple systems off the Pacific coast (some fairly strong), and some staying fairly strong as they emerge onto the Plains. If we can get sufficient moisture return (the big "if" in February), perhaps we might be entering a favorable pattern for severe thunderstorms soon if the models verify.

And the slight risk is back into the DFW metro as well, and even now extends south of DFW for wind and hail. Highest tornado probabilities (5% within 25 miles) are in the northern section of the metro northwards to the Red River and over towards NE TX, SE OK, and central AR. It's also interesting to see the elevated thunderstorms in NW OK, where there is a severe thunderstorm warning in effect for an area where some of the surface temperatures are hovering near the freezing mark. Now if only that activity was in the warm sector...

I know it's still early, but I'm already starting to get a bit concerned for this year's severe weather season with the arctic outbreaks happening over the eastern US, especially if the whole pattern with western ridging and eastern troughing gets established; to my understanding, this pattern ruined the severe season many times in the middle of this decade. With drought expanding in the west there may be more concern for western ridging. That said, if a western ridge can be combined with a ridge over the East Coast and troughing in the central U.S. (as the aforementioned CPC outlook seems to suggest) then maybe we will get several storm systems that move from the southern Plains towards the Great Lakes region. To my (limited) understanding this would be better with La Niña conditions though if you wanted to bet on tornado outbreaks. I'm going to be a bit more optimistic here and guess first high risk on April 11th in the southern Plains, with 1200 tornadoes overall.

Agreed. Even just looking at the RAP used on the SPC Mesoanalysis site, that model placed the freezing line about three counties too far west. At least most of DFW seems to be above freezing (though just barely) now, though some places in Tarrant and Denton counties still seem to be at or just below the freezing mark.

Interesting note regarding the location of the freezing line. Some of the personal weather stations on Wundermap (accuracy is a concern though) are averaging around 32 in portions of southern Dallas County (and close to it in Irving and NW Dallas County), and even in the areas that based on radar data appear to be just plain rain in SE Tarrant are averaging around 32 as well. Here in west Fort Worth a light coating of ice has formed on my tree branches. It will be interesting to see how far west the freezing line shifts over the next few hours, and part of me wonders if it will not shift as far west as forecasted. Hopefully the freezing line shifts west out of DFW in the next couple of hours as forecasted, before there is an opportunity for ice accumulation to become a major issue.

I'm on the west side of Fort Worth and there is currently a light rain with temperatures just below freezing (31F), with most of Tarrant County (aside from the easternmost portions) also at or just below freezing. Paved surfaces seem wet and not icy at the present moment, although there does seem to be a little bit of ice on surfaces that are less likely to retain warmth (like leaves and the metal railing just outside my house). Concern for icing seems to be further west where precipitation has yet to develop (but will), as per SPC mesoscale discussion.

Should be interesting to watch, that's for sure. And in fact, this morning's 6z NAM run is showing a potential icing event from the Hill Country up towards DFW, with greater ice accumulations showing up around Llano and Gatesville (with the event ongoing at the end of the run, though it's too early to delineate where winter precipitation may accumulate at this time). But like you mentioned, the GFS and other global models are not picking up on anything.

I wonder what everyone is thinking about the severe weather potential tomorrow in Texas? Currently SPC has a slight risk in place for an area roughly bounded by Fort Worth to the NE, Killeen to the SE, and Abilene to the W. Multiple NAM and NAM3K runs are getting some pretty high EHI values into parts of the north-central Texas region, though SPC is calling the NAM overdone. Just waiting for what the 18z HRRR run has to say, though; that said, the 12z HRRR run does keep the surface-based instability south of the DFW Metroplex by about 2 counties or so.

Tornado warning now for Collin County, including highly populated areas of McKinney and Plano.

Seems a bit weaker on radar now, but there is a severe-warned storm just to the west on its heels. The storm near Celina also seems to be developing a hook with what appears to be some rotation on radar.

That storm only took like 20 minutes to go from a blip on the radar and then go severe... talk about explosive development. The atmosphere is indeed very unstable.

Severe thunderstorm warning now up for northern Denton and Collin counties. Although this warning is mostly north of the built-out parts of the DFW metroplex, to the southwest of the warning, storms trying to form near Springtown and Azle could potentially grow into a hail threat for the Metroplex.

Severe thunderstorm watch now out along the I-35 corridor in Texas from the Red River down to Temple, including the DFW area.

Yeah, the models apparently want to fire up some storms along the cold front within the next 2 hours or so, possibly bringing a chance for severe to the DFW area if they can become more intense.

That said, the GFS has been trying to show an active period around the beginning of April. Don't know what this means for severe potential though, but if the GFS verifies on delivering storm systems and we can have sufficiently high parameters for severe thunderstorms perhaps we'll at least get something out of it.

Feeling like north central Texas caught a break in terms of severe storms for today, but the 18Z NAM and NAM 3k are wanting to drive a big supercell through the DFW area for tomorrow, though the previous runs aren't really catching on to this idea. EDIT: 18Z GFS also hints at this idea with heavier precipitation in Denton and Collin counties; a similar placement to the 18z NAM 3k. I'm not too concerned with the exact placement as the models are just hinting at the idea that something could happen in the DFW vicinity, but it wouldn't be too pretty to see a big hailstorm go through the DFW area.

I believe that the frontal boundary is a bit further north than the models were forecasting, which seems to be located immediately south of the DFW metroplex, along roughly a Cleburne-Midlothian-Terrell line. There's still some dry air in place over DFW (30s and 40s dewpoints compared to 50s and 60s DPs to the south), so we'll have to see how long it takes to moisten up over DFW.

Interesting, as I just noticed that the models (GFS, NAM, and NAM 3k) were suggesting that a complex of vigorous storms (possibly supercells transitioning to an MCS?) may form in the vicinity of the DFW metroplex tomorrow (especially in areas S/SW). I would place my bet on a slight risk if the models continue to suggest the formation of a storm complex. EDIT: SPC 6z outlook confirms slight risk (5% tornado/15% hail) for north central Texas, including the southern portion of the DFW metroplex. NAM and GFS place the warm front slightly further north (into Denton and Collin counties) so if this holds I wouldn't be surprised to see the slight risk adjusted northwards, though the NAM 3k places it on a line from downtown Fort Worth to north of downtown Dallas (resolution differences?). If the warm front moves further north (as NAM and GFS suggest) I'd expect the bulk of the DFW area to get in more on the storm action.

GFS is showing a storm forming somewhere in the central Plains for next weekend. There's some run-to-run disagreement on where the humid air in the warm sector sets up though, as can be expected this far out. Today's 6z GFS run forms a major storm (probably overblown with sub-980mb MSLP tracking from CO into NE) and would suggest some severe weather potential for eastern OK and north central TX for next Sunday (3/18), albeit with some capping issues. Waiting for the 12z GFS to reach this time period to see what it shows...