Will - Rutgers

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Some do slow down though like Eduouard in 1996, the slowing down of the forward speed caused it to weaken though and not even E NE saw much outside of some tropical storm winds.  We had a couple of storms slow down just offshore in the last couple of years also with similar results.

Oh absolutely, and you might be thinking of Jose last year, which was around the benchmark's latitude and then just went nowhere.  It'll always depend on the setup.  And some of the modelling indicates scenarios where high pressure really traps this thing.  I'm just a hard sell on it until we get much closer.  The storm is going to change in size and intensity, probably very significantly, in a way that will change how it interacts with any ridging.  The strength and positioning of said ridging isn't set in stone, and then you'll have more discrete low pressure features that could give this a lane to escape, which are even harder to model.  Just way too early.

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The Upper Level environment must be superb on the gfs, it's really slow to weaken. 

Don't forget, the GFS had major issues last year with predicting storm strengths.  Really abysmal.

Also I'm guessing part of the reason it's slow to weaken is baroclinic enhancement trading off against increasing shear and decreasing SSTs.

It'll depend on the strength of the ridge and any kickers that might come along but all else being equal I think there's a fairly significant model bias to slowing storms down too much as they get caught in the westerlies.  Seems like extratropical and tropical systems tend to clear a good deal faster than they get modelled.  How many times on this board do you hear that such-and-such model shows snow starting on Friday night and it's still snowing at hour 72, and then that doesn't happen, lol.

Southwesterly shear definitely starting to make its presence felt.  If the storms entrains any of that dry air it might have significant effects.  The mid and low levels show some erosion of the CDO.

There's been some substantial mid-level dry air on the western periphery of the storm, and talk of shear from the NHC, but Florence evidently doesn't concern herself with stuff like physics.

I don't know if mods want us to use a dedicated thread for Florence but I figured the weather is currently boring enough that I'll just post here.

Was surprised no one commented on its unexpected intensification.

GFS is complete garbage for tropical cyclone intensities.  Modelled sub-900 storms regularly last year.

36 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I think the NWS (both Mt.Holly and Upton) were a bit on the low side with their expected high temperatures for today. I also think they are to low with their high temps for the next few days as well IMO.

I'll take your position.  All due respect to Mount Holly but it wouldn't be out-of-character for them to bust low over the next few days.

Really nice weather today honestly.  I'm looking forward to fall but it was nice and sunny and hot.  In the winter it can get too cold to breathe.  I'll take the over.

I'll say the line for LGA's high today is 98, any bets?

PDS wording in the Severe Thunderstorm Warning associated with the incoming derecho.  Good luck to any resident AmWx cheeseheads, and stay safe.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
WIC017-033-035-091-280015-
/O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0140.180827T2320Z-180828T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
620 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

The National Weather Service in The Twin Cities has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Pepin County in west central Wisconsin...
Dunn County in west central Wisconsin...
Chippewa County in west central Wisconsin...
Eau Claire County in west central Wisconsin...

* Until 715 PM CDT.

* At 619 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Glenwood City to near Menomonie to Rattlesnake
Ridge, moving northeast at 80 mph.

These are very dangerous storms.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect
considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles.
Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

* Severe thunderstorms will be near...
Menomonie, Boyceville and Wheeler around 625 PM CDT.
Colfax around 630 PM CDT.
Ridgeland around 635 PM CDT.
Bloomer and New Auburn around 640 PM CDT.
Cornell around 655 PM CDT.
Augusta around 700 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing
widespread wind damage. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure
and stay away from windows!

At least one area-wide 12"+ event since it's the 2010's and that's just what we do now I guess.

At least 4 events that hit parts of the area for 6"+.

Mid-loaded winter starting around mid-January, cold and dry March.  Warm December.

Heavy, gust-driven rain in Piscataway.  Tiny cell hitting hard.  No thunder.

Rain has had a hard time making it into NJ today but it looks like it is well on its way and will hit us in the overnight hours.

Feels weird to be expecting rain when it isn't 85 and humid.

From Mount Holly's AFD:

Quote

High pressure then builds in from the north and west with a
cooler and much dryer airmass on Thursday. Surface dewpoints
fall into the 50s, and 1000-500 mb thicknesses will fall to
555-560 dam. With highs generally in the 70s to low 80s, it will
feel quite pleasant, especially compared to the warmth and
humidity of most of August so far.

Even lows Wednesday night and Thursday night will fall into the
50s and low 60s, which will be a welcome relief.

Oh please oh please oh please.

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

When you run over them with the lawnmower they pop and spew spores all over like smoke. I turned my mower over the other day to clean underneath and they were growing in there too.

Good lord.

1 hour ago, tdp146 said:

Seriously. I can’t remember a year where I’ve seen more mushrooms. 

We had my father in laws suprise 70th birthday at the house yesterday. I put up a few canopy’s in the yard and was glad I did because as soon as everyone sat down to eat we had a downpour.  The rain this summer had been a pain but at least its been warm. Today is the one exception. For August, I would consider today “disgusting”.  Luckily it looks fairly short lived. Need to pack in the beach days while we can  

 

Looks like we're finally exiting this multi-week pattern of endless pop-up severe storms.  Tuesday night's rain seems like a more orderly frontal passage event rather than spontaneous atmospheric combustion from 100 degree dews and sea breeze fronts.

Some of the mushrooms on the lawns are large and thick enough to be used as bludgeons.

Flash Flood Watch.

Flash Flood Watch
DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-
070-071-101>106-190015-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0014.180818T1800Z-180819T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle-Cecil-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Elkton, Newton, Washington, 
Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, 
Sandy Hook, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, 
Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Long Beach Island, 
Wharton State Forest, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, 
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, 
Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, 
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, 
and Doylestown
316 AM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of northern Delaware, northeast 
Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, including the 
following areas, in northern Delaware, New Castle. In 
northeast Maryland, Cecil. In New Jersey, Camden, Coastal 
Ocean, Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, 
Middlesex, Morris, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Salem, 
Somerset, Southeastern Burlington, Sussex, Warren, and Western 
Monmouth. In Pennsylvania, Berks, Carbon, Delaware, Eastern 
Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lehigh, Lower Bucks, Monroe, 
Northampton, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester, and 
Western Montgomery. 

* From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening

* Several rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms will affect 
the area through this evening. The heaviest rainfall is expected
later this afternoon into this evening as a cold front moves 
across the area. Those areas that received heavy rainfall on 
Friday will be the most susceptible to flash flooding.

* Heavy rainfall within a short period of time can lead to 
rapidly rising water and flash flooding, particularly in urban 
areas, and along small creeks and streams. The ground remains 
fairly saturated due to recent heavy rains over the past several
weeks. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that there is the potential for flash
flooding which can be life-threatening. Heavy rain is expected to
occur over a short period of time. Rapidly rising flood waters
may quickly inundate roadways and areas of poor drainage. Streams
and creeks could leave their banks, flooding nearby properties.

Please monitor the forecast, especially if you live in a location
that is prone to flooding. Be prepared to take action if a flash 
flood warning is issued for your area.

&&

88/73/96 at work in New Brunswick.

Feels almost dystopic outside.  The punishing humidity, smoky, hazy, partly cloudy "blue" sky gives one the impression he lives in a Franz Kafka novel.  Even when it is sunny, it is not sunny.

I'm actually pretty stunned there's no Air Quality Alert today.  How is that possible?

78/68 feels downright pleasant.  Great sleeping weather last night too.

Looks like the upcoming heat has a limited shelf life and we will return to roughly normal temps starting this weekend with relatively muted dews.

23 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

don't call this a bust for nnj just yet. more heavy echoes developing and expanding near union county

I see it.  I should qualify "bust," it was relative to some of the model outputs and not the NWS forecasting.

Yanks is right about the radar not telling the full story.  Light/moderate showering under zero returns.

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

parts of NJ have had 5-8 inches of rain this morning...LOL no bust there

NNJ?  I know Monmouth did.

Radar drying up rapidly (with consideration given to robust low-level moisture).  Nonetheless I think the sillier model totals in NNJ will bust well low of that barring any redevelopment.

PA can keep that much rain.

I wonder what local seasonal/annual records may be broken for them this year.