Will - Rutgers

Surprised there's no tornado watch, at least over the Delmarva.  There's a warned storm in Virginia.  I guess they're expecting whatever potential action there may be to be very weak and sporadic.

Briefly poured in Milltown with nothing at all on radar.  Watch for that kind of action today.

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Helps that there's no front around to interact anytime soon (even when Florence gets toward Ohio the front is still back in the western Midwest).

Is the NHC forecast potentially conservative?  Not that it matters too much as sensible weather.  But as a weather nerd discussion, is this tropical on the 18th?  That's unbelievable!

Good lord could you imagine what might've happened if this thing didn't f-up its ERCs?  Coming ashore as a solid Cat 3 or something?

Amazing to think this could remain tropical for another 48 hours.  FSU phase space diagrams indicate the gradual loss of tropical characteristics (nothing you can't find from radar anyway), but the diagrams based on the GFS show just how slow the degradation has been.

43 minutes ago, Jtm12180 said:

It was mostly 0.5-1.0” the whole day. It was more of a steady rain than torrential downpours for the most part 

Sort of surprising.  That yellow glob looked punishing.  I guess the biggest returns are on the feeder bands pouring off the ocean.  Thanks for the information.

32 minutes ago, Jtm12180 said:

Seems we are entering what’s left of the “eye” here just west of Myrtle Beach. Had a good bit of heavy rain and wind around 7:00-8:00, and it has calmed to a drizzle and lighter winds. Interested to see if it calms more the next hour or so...

Approximately what are the rates on the left side of the eye?

Just came in to see if anyone mentioned that CNN is really into the "violent grind" thing.

Also to be able to watch Jeff Piotrowski or whoever you like drive through it live.  It's mesmerizing to me.  The world has changed quickly.

Hurricanes are unbelievable.

For a weather nerd there isn't much like looking at the radar and seeing that giant angry pinwheel bear down on civilization.

Saw them and their stupid fire butts today.

Guys, this isn't Final Jeopardy!, I'm just asking people to self-report firefly sightings lol.  No one cares if your guess is wrong

Except maybe forky.

I can't remember many summers, if any, that we had significant fireflies into mid-August.  Extensive Google research corroborates my memory and indicates that fireflies typically emerge as adults until about mid-July, and live for two weeks to breed.  While exact timing will vary, the story is that after August these guys should be on their way out.

Well it's basically mid-September and they are all over the f'n place.  They are on the lawns in Piscataway, there's a billion of them in the grasses along Route 1.  If you didn't know any better by the weather or these fireflies, you'd swear it was July.  I thought maybe the conditions the last two days would knock them out but they took their momentary setback in stride.  I assume many of you are seeing the same thing I am.

Being that the weather is generally forecasted to be AN temps and humidity for the foreseeable future, I think I could keep seeing these guys until, I'll guess, September 25th.  Any takers?

All eyes will be on Florence through the end of the week but Isaac deserves some attention even barring an unexpected surge in intensity.  There's nothing but warm water in front of it and any relaxation in the forecasted shear could seriously increase its potential strength, plus, it's basically on the on-ramp to the GOM after day 5.

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Beautiful

That Yucatan trashgyre looks like it wants to do something even though the convection is way off the center.  Causing more storms over FL than near the apparent center.

9 minutes ago, hickory said:

Mods delete this if you want to. Look am not a meteorologist nor do I claim to be, but the consensus is getting clear. There is a constant east in the tracks. If the euro goes east again tonight then that's a sign. You have a powerful Hurricane that will tend to pull more to the north. Also given climo in perspective it wouldn't make landfall at all. Am looking at a cape lookout north landfall. I wouldn't be surprised if it just brushes the OBX and OTS. It's not making landfall in SC or south of cape lookout. You have to follow the trends and its east! Models will wobble back and forth every run, but look at the trend. I would bet $1000 doesn't make landfall west of cape lookout and am willing to put my honor and name to it. Rant over!

Far too early to declare this with such a complex forecast.

20 minutes ago, mempho said:

In case anyone wants something fun to do over the next couple of evenings....

A good drinking game for major hurricane threads is to take a shot of tropical liquor (rum/tequila) every time someone uses the word "annular."




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I can't blame them for getting excited, I have seen annular storms do a lot of goofy stuff over the years.  I remember some stupid EPAC storm going over cool water with low shear and the NHC write-up specifically mentioned the chance of an annular transition.  And then I wake up and the storm has gained 30 MPH and looks like an angry donut on IR.  I want to say this was an early 2010s storm.  Maybe the same year as Hurricane Hilary.

But also Hilary was the name of a hot blonde girl I dated in HS.  She was super annular.  So I'm probably confusing these things. 

Also I have been drinking a lot.

Should be a foggy morning with cool air at the surface, warm air moving in, and an abundance of moisture.

or not

i don't know anything

10 minutes ago, Tibet said:

And can anyone describe what is occurring just south of the eye?

florence is tired of doing hurricane stuff and doesn't feel like making thunderstorms

the gfs shows the storm dissipating in the next 24 hours to take a job doing social work with kids

Kinda curious, CDO is contracting, cloud tops warning, eye looking just a bit raggedy compared to earlier.

4 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I don't want money I pay for insurance to go to some rich jamoke who owns a house on a BARRIER island

i refuse to fund jamokes of any sort.

gadflies, dinguses, and ne'er-do-wells are also on my s-list.

so if the GFS is de-coupled from the ocean why do we use it for tropical systems.  or are there other models in a similar state.  its intensity forecasts were hot garbage all last year and i haven't seen a tremendous change (or maybe there will be a 905 over cape hatteras at the end of the week).  buying futures on plywood.

I can't believe this thing could stall out right over the Carolinas.  This is going to be a massive disaster if that happens.

19 hours ago, forkyfork said:

spinups possible as well with high shear and very moist low levels

Depending on the path Florence takes there could be additional tornado potential later in the week as the right side of the storm crosses the area.

GOES-16 images show this thing getting obliterated lol.  I know it's only temporary but damn that shear is rude.  Funny how you can go from perfect CDO to linoleum blownapart in 24 hours.