Santa Claus

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Remember the squall we had last year in mid December? That was crazy.

did we have another the year before, too.

both events were basically the hardest snows i ever saw in my life or at least the most violent.  visibility could be counted in single digit feet.  the irony was, because snow was coming, pretty much everyone in the office started getting in their cars to go home like 10 minutes before game time.  i failed to convince them that was a bad idea.

Just now, CIK62 said:

What's with the TORNADO WATCH from just south of NYC down through Delaware?

tornadoes may be afoot 

there is a warned storm in Delaware associated with the line that will be passing through

Winds are pretty quiet here in Piscataway, still very warm.  Are we in for Funderstorms with a cold front passage?

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why do people come up with these crazy models?  Just spend the funds on one model to make it as good as possible.

i imagine (a.k.a. no clue what i'm talking about) that it's difficult or impossible for one all-encompassing model to be built due to constraints of money and computing power, and instead models are built with certain compromises, make certain assumptions, which may lead to specific biases.  and then meteorologists are tasked with using their expertise and experience to sort through all of the noise and determine what models are coming up with the best solutions that make the most sense.  in essence, the final model is the forecaster, taking an ensemble and reducing it to a forecast.

or not, idk.

mid 70s for most of the area tomorrow, accumulation should be limited to the north and west.

this weather is (no accounting for personal tastes) perfect.  perfect.  it felt wonderful to be outside today, and basically that's what we have to look forward to until Wednesday.

and honestly, we basically need a warm winter this year with coronavirus afoot and rapidly getting out of control.  the restaurants and bars need the outdoor dining opportunities, outdoor recreation and exercise is safest, and viruses tend to survive better in colder and drier environments.  i wouldn't mind punting on winter this year.

if my calculations are correct it will not snow the next 5 years, which is almost 10 years.  it could be *counts on fingers* 2045 before it snows again

will you guys just let the winter play out a bit sheesh, it's November 3rd.

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

Well Euro has this getting to 933 mb in ten days from now in the middle of the Caribbean, so maybe what we're seeing tonight wont be the peak of Eta... (cue weenie likes)

well we're going to have to see what emerges if/when it gets back over water.  it's not a huge storm and its core is going to be dragging its nuts over some pretty mountainous areas in Honduras for a good chunk of time.

38 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Will-Rutgers 925mb/140kt

OH BABY

9 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Place yer bets folks! Come one come all, try your luck! Guess the pressure and winds! Only 5 cents! 

925/160 mph

wow.  what're the odds the season's last storm is its most powerful?

unless, of course, the atmosphere intends to keep spawning storms through late fall...

just chatting here.  usually with a big warm front pulling away and the resultant ET strengthening we are treated to strong dry cold winds.  but right now it's so still that it's not cold at all.  i usually hate the day-after of a big storm with clear skies and screaming cold dry winds but here in Piscataway it's still, sorta humid, nice and comfy to be outside.

storm seems to have performed more or less as advertised, hours and hours of rain mostly moderate in intensity and sometimes heavy.  i think it's moved a little slower than i expected.

haven't seen much sun lately, socked in with clouds yet again as i leave work.

snow or no snow, we finally have something to track, and we could really use precipitation in whatever form it decides to take.

i have a weather observation

i observe this weather is boring

it's so boring that if Metfan said "i think it's going to rain a quarter inch tomorrow" i'd give his post a weenie reaction

This weather pattern is very very Low Energy!  SAD!

On 10/12/2020 at 8:17 PM, Dan76 said:

LOL for anthony 

Columbus Day

A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 21. Wind chill values between 3 and 8. Breezy, with a west wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight

Snow, mainly after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Wind chill values between -4 and 3. Windy, with a west southwest wind 24 to 29 mph increasing to 31 to 36 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow before 2pm, then snow showers after 2pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around 23. Wind chill values between -4 and 1. Strong and damaging winds, with a west southwest wind 75 to 85 mph decreasing to 65 to 75 mph. Winds could gust as high as 120 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 30 to 36 inches possible.

Tuesday Night

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Wind chill values between -1 and -7. Very windy, with a west wind 65 to 75 mph decreasing to 41 to 51 mph. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

how much for New Brunswick?

i'm way more skeptical we'd be able to pull down that much cold air to get snow than of the storm's potential existence

absolutely premium weather outside.  not quite indian summer but close.  bright blue sky, warm sun and breeze.  this is a long stretch of mostly uninterrupted great weather a la SoCal.  week after week of gorgeousness.  i almost wish i played golf.

29 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

If “they” were trying again they wouldn’t tell “us”. Too many national security and bad press implications. 
 

I am not sure we should give up on geoengineering and messing with hurricanes just because a mid 20th century program was a failure. 

maybe most aspects of it are still science fiction but as global warming progresses i think it's a virtual certainty that geoengineering gets serious scientific interest.  for all i know it has already.

59 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

so we're wasting another one on shrimp people 

when you say shrimp people, is it a shrimp-sized person, or a person-sized shrimp with humanoid attributes and intelligence, like a character from Bojack Horseman?

i have started seeing the spotted lanternfly the last few weeks in New Brunswick, for the first time.  and once you see one, well, it was like they all showed up all at once.

i wonder what all this is going to do to the fall foliage.  on my drive up to Franklin Lakes Saturday, there was plenty of yellow along the 287 corridor, some orange and red even.  now we're likely to get prodigious rain and some mildly gusty winds.  i hope it doesn't negatively impact the leaves turning.

sup boys.  took a drive up to Franklin Lakes, just day 12 in a row of super gorgeous weather.

little jumping spider guy

and the cup de'grass, i found several fishing spiders on the shore of Franklin Lakes... Franklin Lake... not actually sure what the name of this specific lake is... anyway this spider is probably the largest spider species endemic to New Jersey.  these are the dark fishing spider Dolomedes tenebrosus, or your money back.

also, several of these spiders had hatched baby spiders in their nests.  the spiders hatch and then huddle into a ball.  a ball of baby spiders.  i found out so many terrible things today.

but yeah great weather today.