Will - Rutgers

This was a standout event for me, and I didn't even get the worst of it.  One of those cells came over my head in Piscataway.  Hard to explain the feeling but it was like we were inside the cell, and the lightning was just dropping around us.  There's lightning that's close, and there's that.  Like the feeling if you go outside you are going to die.  Wow.

Nearly the entirety of NJ is warned.

You lucky bastards get to watch the cool lightning in the storm directly above my head, meanwhile all I get is flash flooding.

Getting punished again in Piscataway, extra hard.

There's a storm happening too.

Played Pokemon Go all day in Somerville, left just as the event ended and the storm rolled in.  You could see the rain shafts roll down the Watchung Mountains.  And some extremely close lightning.

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

I literally cannot wait to see how these storms miss us.  I'm so excited you have no idea.

Forget tomorrow, I'm looking at tonight.  That cell might be ideal for some lightning photography if I can figure out where to set up.

That is a nasty line in SE PA.

Anybody got a hot tip on where I should go to get lightning photos from some of these supercells?  Thinking of going to Round Valley.  Nice open views.

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I wonder what a little sunshine will do to the storms coming here today. I'm seeing lots of sunshine outside.

Maybe it'll actually rain in Middlesex County today.

I drove into that cell last night, in Watchung.  Holy cow what punishing rain that was.

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Meanwhile mt holly went warning crazy 

Upton sws for 50 mph winds 

Can't say I blame them as the radar is wound up.

8 minutes ago, anemone said:

It looked like one of the cells had a short lived couplet just before crossing into NJ. The sheer is still there but not as intense. What are the chances that this makes it all the way to NYC?

In the general observation thread someone made a note of the seabreeze front being pushed back.  That may influence the propagation of these cells.

There was a tornado warning in EPA earlier.  Now some SVR warned cells have set their sights on central Jersey.  Observations here.

Boy there is a lot of lightning overhead.

21 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I need a sweater to go outside. Turned the heat up inside.

36 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

It's gotten pretty chilly here in Jersey City over the last hour or so. 

The tropical fetch is held aloft while the lower level winds are pulling air off the ocean from the SSE.  Very legal, very cool.

Tell you what I'll take some of that temperature and humidity relief.  Today was a sauna in Middlesex County.

We look to be in for a dynamic grab bag of interesting weather.  A strong southerly flow will fuel a flash flooding threat, with less favorable conditions existing for possible severe wind events.

Quote

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The weather will turn active on Friday. Synoptically, an impressive
evolution as a pair of shortwaves phase over the Southeast, leading
to a single deep trough extending well into the Gulf of Mexico. This
creates a very high amplitude meridional flow with jet level winds
to our west turning due south if not east of south over a large
distance. This flow pattern will mean the storm system to our west
will continue to be slow to approach. Southerly surface flow will
keep temperatures on the warm side, with rising dew points as well.
Dew points well into the 60s will create a downright humid feel for
much of Friday. Breezy conditions also as the pressure gradient
tightens up in the southerly flow and the LLJ begins to increase.
The shower and storm risk will increase later in the day, though
there is uncertainty as to when the window for more widespread
activity will open, which is discussed more below. A few pop-up
showers are also possible in the morning, though any of those should
be more widely scattered and progressive given lack of instability
and forcing.

Two main concerns continue heading into Friday afternoon and beyond,
those being the potential for heavy rainfall and severe weather. The
heavy rain threat is most apparent, as PWATs surge to around 1.6-1.8
inches, near record territory for this time of year. Highly
anomalous tap of moisture extending all the way into the Caribbean.
Any heavier showers and thunderstorms will produce high rain rates
capable of causing flash flooding. The extent of flooding potential
will depend mainly on the duration of convective activity and the
extent of any training of cells. Some guidance shows a more
progressive and broken line of heavy showers and storms which would
limit overall concern. The NAM for instance is on the dry side with
generally near to below an inch of rain. However, other guidance
shows more in the way of training cells with the potential for
localized corridors of two or more inches of rain. Given the
amplitude of the flow and anomalous air mass, am inclined to feel
there will be at least some flash flooding issues, especially over
eastern PA where the most rain has been seen recently. In
particular, if an initial round of showers or storms develops during
the daytime tomorrow, this will better prime areas for flash
flooding once the main lines goes through. See the hydrology section
further below for more on the rainfall threat.

In terms of severe potential, there are a couple things to watch
for. Two potential periods of interest exist. The first concerns
would come Friday afternoon with cells developing ahead of the main
line. This would be most likely over eastern PA and western NJ. We
should see a couple hundred to a few hundred joules of surface based
CAPE develop in the afternoon with decent shear as well. Main
question with that first round would be whether we have the forcing
needed to take advantage, and on that matter there is a good deal of
disagreement. Hi-res CAMs are all over the map. A lot of cloudiness
is expected Friday; any breaks would help build the instability and
improve storm chances, but a thicker overcast would reduce the
chances for afternoon convection. Anything that develops will need
to be watched for the potential to become strong, but feel this
activity is more likely to be garden variety with perhaps a couple
of stronger cells and mostly just a heavy rain threat. Second period
of concern would be with the passage of the main frontal line
overnight. Less instability to work with when the line passes, but
very impressive wind fields, so damaging winds would be a concern
with any thunderstorms. Most of the activity (once again) should
occur in the predawn hours.  The main line should be approaching the
coast by 12z Saturday, but may still be hanging around if the timing
is a little slower. SPC maintains a marginal risk for most of the
area with a slight risk over our far southern zones. Generally agree
with this idea; not expecting a repeat of a few days ago as the
setup is overall not as favorable, but especially given the wind
fields we will still have to keep a close eye on things.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms with the surface cold front
will move east and north of our area Saturday. A closed low aloft
over the upper Ohio Valley combined with diurnal heating will
generate some instability showers during Saturday afternoon and
at night.

I hope you kids are enjoying a balmy mid-April day while you rush to complete your taxes.

Quote

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
***Enhanced severe weather threat for tonight***

Sent an update for a flash flood watch across far northwestern
NJ, southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and Berks County. More
information in the hydrology section.

Main story will be severe weather threat for tonight. In the
meantime, as of mid afternoon, strong low pressure was located
over Ohio with a warm front extending east and northeast from it
across NE PA toward Long Island placing most of the CWA in the
warm sector. Temperatures generally in the 60s and 70s with dew
points climbing into the 60s as moisture continues to advect
northward in the southerly flow. This moisture has kept low
clouds and mist locked in for much of the area which has kept
conditions a bit more stable than farther S/W where
destabilization is occuring. Some showers currently across
central PA extending southward however the stronger storms we
expect for later tonight have yet to form.

As we head through the late afternoon into this evening, higher ML
CAPE values should continue to develop northward towards MD and
eastern PA. As this occurs, weak impulses in the upper level
flow combined with terrain effects look to develop scattered
showers and storms into eastern PA by this evening but these
don`t look to be well organized and should generally weaken with
time. Still, gusty winds and heavy downpours will be possible
in any of these given the very strong flow aloft.

The main concern for severe weather looks to be for the very late
evening and especially overnight as forecast models continue to
indicate a strong squall line forming to our west ahead of a
cold front and moving west to east across the CWA roughly in the
6-10z time frame. Overall, severe weather parameters are some
of the most favorable seen for the mid Atlantic this time of
year. 0-1/0-3/0-6 km shear values look to be 30/45/65 knots
respectively. This, coupled with ML CAPE values looking to be
500+ j/kg as convection enters our eastern PA zones. Not
terribly impressive on its own but plenty given the very strong
shear and dynamics along with L57 lapse rates that look to be in
the 6.0 to 6.5+ C/km range. Of additional concerns is 0-1 km
SRH values progged to be 300+ m2s2. What this all means is that
damaging winds look to be a big concern as this squall line
moves through with the SPC having placed an enhanced risk for
severe weather for a large portion of the CWA except the coast
and far northern NJ. In technical terms, a QLCS type event.
Damaging straight line winds are typically the biggest threat
with these types of events but given the parameter is place,
isolated tornadoes are possible. In addition, the very heavy
rain accompanying the showers/storms will bring a good potential
for at least urban, small stream, and poor drainage type
flooding with isolated flash flooding also possible. The only
real good news is that the line will be progressive and should
be rapidly exiting by sunrise Monday. For further details on
what we expect tonight, a briefing is at
weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf.

I'm going to guess the tornado watches progress to the east as the night goes on.

Hail out of nowhere in Piscataway.

Waiting for storm to arrive in Piscataway, lightning has stopped though the radar is just as ripe as ever.  Few drops of rain and gusty winds.

Was just startled by some kind of sustained flash to my west (from Piscataway).  Some shades of brown and blue.  It came in two waves.  I guess it must've been a transformer... wild.

2 hours ago, weathermedic said:

Wind seems to have died down quite a bit over the last hour or so.

Can confirm.  But those breezes are still cutting through me.  I had to retype this post a few times.

Hey just FYI it's cold as s***.

Edit: wait we can curse here?  Whoops lol

No wintry precip at all in Piscataway.  Time for bed.

Not meaning to impart bias or disregard analysis thusfar, I have no preference and will take whatever the atmosphere gives us because I have no choice.  Just wanted to say the sensible weather impacting millions of people depends upon some very thin temperature lines over just a few miles.  Looks like the ultimate nowcast.  Stay off the roads, wherever you are.  I wouldn't wager any amount of snow or ice for anyone right now in the Metro.  If you want to bet on rain and drive around, godspeed to you.

I don't want to go too far down the rabbit hole of "I want this weather, nuh uh I want that weather" but a very serious FRZ or sleet event is still exciting to me.  As much fun as a ton of powder will be, it's much rarer from recent history to get a significant ice storm.  For us in CNJ that is very much on the table.  I've seen tons of huge snow events, not many of the former.

8 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

850s are likewise cold

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Borderline temps above, cold at the surface, heavy mixed precip followed by deep cold the following Monday.  It looks like several inches of dense frozen trash followed by flash freezing.  You're gonna need a pickaxe to clear this stuff up if you aren't done by Sunday night.