Santa Claus

i have a weather observation

i observe this weather is boring

it's so boring that if Metfan said "i think it's going to rain a quarter inch tomorrow" i'd give his post a weenie reaction

This weather pattern is very very Low Energy!  SAD!

On 10/12/2020 at 8:17 PM, Dan76 said:

LOL for anthony 

Columbus Day

A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 21. Wind chill values between 3 and 8. Breezy, with a west wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tonight

Snow, mainly after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Wind chill values between -4 and 3. Windy, with a west southwest wind 24 to 29 mph increasing to 31 to 36 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow before 2pm, then snow showers after 2pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around 23. Wind chill values between -4 and 1. Strong and damaging winds, with a west southwest wind 75 to 85 mph decreasing to 65 to 75 mph. Winds could gust as high as 120 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 30 to 36 inches possible.

Tuesday Night

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Wind chill values between -1 and -7. Very windy, with a west wind 65 to 75 mph decreasing to 41 to 51 mph. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

how much for New Brunswick?

i'm way more skeptical we'd be able to pull down that much cold air to get snow than of the storm's potential existence

absolutely premium weather outside.  not quite indian summer but close.  bright blue sky, warm sun and breeze.  this is a long stretch of mostly uninterrupted great weather a la SoCal.  week after week of gorgeousness.  i almost wish i played golf.

29 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

If “they” were trying again they wouldn’t tell “us”. Too many national security and bad press implications. 
 

I am not sure we should give up on geoengineering and messing with hurricanes just because a mid 20th century program was a failure. 

maybe most aspects of it are still science fiction but as global warming progresses i think it's a virtual certainty that geoengineering gets serious scientific interest.  for all i know it has already.

59 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

so we're wasting another one on shrimp people 

when you say shrimp people, is it a shrimp-sized person, or a person-sized shrimp with humanoid attributes and intelligence, like a character from Bojack Horseman?

i have started seeing the spotted lanternfly the last few weeks in New Brunswick, for the first time.  and once you see one, well, it was like they all showed up all at once.

i wonder what all this is going to do to the fall foliage.  on my drive up to Franklin Lakes Saturday, there was plenty of yellow along the 287 corridor, some orange and red even.  now we're likely to get prodigious rain and some mildly gusty winds.  i hope it doesn't negatively impact the leaves turning.

sup boys.  took a drive up to Franklin Lakes, just day 12 in a row of super gorgeous weather.

little jumping spider guy

and the cup de'grass, i found several fishing spiders on the shore of Franklin Lakes... Franklin Lake... not actually sure what the name of this specific lake is... anyway this spider is probably the largest spider species endemic to New Jersey.  these are the dark fishing spider Dolomedes tenebrosus, or your money back.

also, several of these spiders had hatched baby spiders in their nests.  the spiders hatch and then huddle into a ball.  a ball of baby spiders.  i found out so many terrible things today.

but yeah great weather today.

8 hours ago, wdrag said:

The overall idea... enjoy all your social distanced outdoor wining and dining (umbrella tent sheltered) between now and the end of September. It will turn cooler than normal thereafter. 727A/24

terrible news for restaurants who need every dollar they can get.

44 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Moon looks orange/reddish tonight, wildfires smoke? 

just a bit of smoke, but it's there, as i could tell driving home with the sun low, large, and more than just a bit dimmer than its usual self, and from some folks posting smoke models.  not like it was parts of last week, when i shot some good pictures directly into it.  but definitely not at full mast.

when i am cruising route 18 in my 2005 toyota camry, you boys better believe i'm looking my big stupid eyes into a big smoky sun.  after a long stupid day of my long stupid life it was the only piece of beauty that keeps me giving a shit.  give me more smoky sunsets.  give me less of anything else.

nothing in front of us right now but an amazing stretch of beautiful weather.

12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I don’t think so. However, the environment around this system is complex. Shear will decrease, then change vector, then really decrease, but extremely dry air will be a factor, as will land. There will be moments this system can take advantage of, but in talking about majors, you usually see less barriers. I learned a lesson with sally though: never write off a gulf system. That storm was 6 hours from being a major, amazingly. I don’t think the ceiling is high for Beta, given the above reasons. I’m not locked into that call, though, as this is an extremely challenging environment 

nice post, thanks.

Paulette redeveloping would be appropriate.  loops around and slams into Florida as a Category 3 right behind Hurricane Zeta or whatever we're up to by the end of the month.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I'm loving this weather

Sleeping with the window  open is great

crazy comfortable now.  every day this week was beautiful.

i can't believe Vicky is still a thing

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

lol DSLR are ancient history, mirrorless cameras with fully electronic shutters are the new thing.  I ditched all my DSLR a few years ago.

well either way sir you don't tell a fella you got a sight to behold and not give him a sight.  give us some bird photos!

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It seems to be a lot more this year, this morning I had hundreds of birds mobbing around my backyard pond, of various different species.  It was a sight to behold!  They were bathing, eating and fighting amongst themselves.

 

where is the picture

buy a crop sensor DSLR from Costco and don't fail us next year 

i am rooting for you Wilfred Jr.

you big sloppy idiot

get your shit together, get your GED, go flood a basement in Thibodaux, Louisiana.  boost some property values.  addition by subtraction.

i'm getting in on the photo game boys

i think i like the shot with the trees more

edit: the downsizing and image artifacts really piss me off but whatever

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m going all in on 90L. Bathtub water, decreasing shear, unstable air mass, and location location location. SW gulf is a hotspot for quick spin ups (orientation of geography?). Given the well organized look seen this morning would not surprise me that any additional increase would lead to formation of a TD by tonight. I think 90L wins the race for “W” and I think it could also become our next hurricane. Going to be a painfully slow mover and since no vortex exists yet models have taken up almost every inch of the western gulf for possible tracks. I personally think a long northward trek into Texas is most likely, but will need a defined coc before we know anything on that front

that would be a real coup for 90L to spin up that quickly and nab Wilfred from the other INVESTs.

2 hours ago, JoshSnow said:

The sun will be turned to darkness and the moon to blood before the coming of the great and glorious day of the Lord.

tell the lord to put out the f'n fires already

i'm guessing 98L is Wilfred and 99L becomes Subtropical Storm Alpha.  according to FSU phase space diagrams the GFS likes 99L for some tropical development and gets it down to around 990 mb before it swings towards Portugal.

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Smoky sun this evening.

super smoky.  it was gone before it dipped below the horizon.  i'm thinking the better shots will be the sunrises, i guess there's usually less particulates in the air in the morning than the afternoon due to diurnal heating and churned up wind currents.  idk though.