Santa Claus

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Based on the 100 mile rule, if you want the heaviest rainfall from a TC you want it the center to be about 100 miles to your east.  I remember when Gloria made LF near Bay Shore, the heaviest rains were right over NYC.  When Bob made LF between MTP and Block Island, the heaviest rains were in Queens and Nassau County.  When Floyd made landfall on Jones Beach, the heaviest rains were in NJ and NE PA.  When Irene made landfall near Coney Island, the heaviest rains were in NJ.  When Bertha made landfall near JFK the heaviest rains were in the Poconos.  etc.....

 

I think rainfall will be relatively muted for a TC.  The models have the storm screaming up the coast.  Just not enough time for bigger rains.

Looking pretty solid right now.

One thing about the potential storm surge into LI is that many of these models think this thing is going to be absolutely flying up the coast.  From what I've read the higher the forward speed, the higher the storm surge height, but the less overall land mass that gets flooded.

What kind of interaction might it have with that deep trough?  It might just get captured.

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm surprised models have been showing relatively little intensification once away from the islands. I would think if stays off the coast of Florida it could definitely ramp up

There's a lot of sheer over the east coast and coastal waters.  Something to watch

10 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

The relative consistency of the Euro is becoming concerning.  EDIT: to clarify, the track.

I hate myself for asking this but there's no chance of blocking and a Sandy event is there?  We have had some unusual flow patterns this summer, cutoff and retrograding lows.

3 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

That seems to imply an exceedingly small storm, would think with baroclinic forcing at this latitude the wind field would be broader and the region of max gusts wouldn't have such a tight gradient.

93/71 with a breeze doesn't feel all that bad.  can't tell if i am adjusting to our new climate norms or my brain is just hopeful that heat stroke will bring it sweet release from the endless horrorshow that is 2020.

the important thing is i got fresh cold peaches and plums in the fridge so there's still something to look forward to.

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The radar just exploded over our area

This is incredibly heavy rain and it's been going on for a while now too.

Looking at the radar it's like there was some convergence between the outflow ahead of the line and the outflow from the storms to the north, and the first cell popped over Middlesex.  Now the rest of the line is consolidating with it.  It's very dark outside, fairly gusty, but wow the rain is nuts.  Major street flooding.

Saw a few pieces of hail up to nickel size.  Based on the sirens I'm assuming some of those bolts found a target.  Might've gotten a few on video.

Tons and tons of CTG in this line.

2 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Looking WSW from Piscataway some cloud is throwing regular lightning every 5ish seconds.  Must be tiny because I hardly see anything on radar but it's there.

Maybe every 2ish seconds.  Someone's boat is getting serious rain.

Edit: this thing is lighting up.  Wow!

Looking WSW from Piscataway some cloud is throwing regular lightning every 5ish seconds.  Must be tiny because I hardly see anything on radar but it's there.

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah i've been hearing them tonight too

Where you at?  I live in the Pleasantview Gardens apartments off Carlton Avenue.  We must be close.

2 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Piscataway, I am hearing thunder from somewhere north and west.

F me ignore this just fireworks at 11 PM on a Sunday.  I've heard three times as many fireworks this summer as I have any other summer.

Piscataway, I am hearing thunder from somewhere north and west.

Impressive cell over me in Piscataway, might've gusted to 50 at one point.  The rain is heavier now than probably any point yesterday.  Ponding all over the place, we might be at 0.75"?  Few CTC rumblers too.

Ya'll got the drought-breaker

If I had a choice where my taxes went I'd give 100% to the National Weather Service.

If I had Elon Musk bucks I'd be building all kinds of radars and satellites to make GOES-16 look like a Tinker Toy.  You'd be counting how many birds were trapped in Fay's circulation.  You'd be able to identify them by specie.

shit I wish I was rich.

Reflective question for you gents, not attempting some slight at anyone.  How long ago was it we (myself included) were bitching about drought, contemplating pattern changes, etc.

How long ago was Fay on the radar?  MAYBE a week?  Probably at most 4 days ago.

I am remembering today the next time and every time we talk about the inevitability of next week's weather.

Shouldn't there be a 2 PM update out?  I thought the NHC was doing 3-hour updates.

@winterwx21 @Stormlover74 guess we aren't getting missed today boys lmao

Getting straight pasted.  Typical ebb and flow tropical storming.  When it kicks up it's fairly impressive.

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It hasn't been that rare to see a TS make landfall in NJ....we had Irene in 2011 and then Sandy 2012.

I dont get this unprecedented July thing, the waters are just as warm in July as they are in August.  The warmest they usually get up around here are low to mid 70s and that's where we are now.  Upper 70s down by Atlantic City.

 

Honestly I don't have the empirical evidence at hand, I assumed peak Gulf Stream temps were reached August/September.

That being said, it's still a climatological anomaly.  Whether because of temperatures or typical seasonal weather patterns that allow for it to happen.

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the center can align better with the mlc then she could get to 60-65mph. Doesn't look bad on IR.

I'm predicting stronger impacts than currently forecast. Some 6"+ amounts likely.

I would like to note, as a born weenie, that the NHC gives JFK a 1% chance of seeing 1-minute sustained hurricane-force winds.  I live in hope that the endless insanity that is 2020 gives us a landfalling NJ hurricane in July.

Go ahead, give me the weenie reaction, your jeers mean nothing to me.  Your weenies sustain me.

...wait let me say that a different way.

thread theme song.  where's my TWC local on the 8s crew at.

this line is crawling through NJ.  looks like it'll be a solid hour of heavy rain unless for some reason it dies out.

by the way, put yourselves on sunset watch again tonight.  could be a good one behind these storms.