Santa Claus

I forgot about the thread here.

Lots of lightning looking westward, getting ready for the 2 AM wakeup thunder.

Lightning pouring out of the cells encroaching from Pennsylvania, flashes every few seconds here in Piscataway.  Heavy echoes on radar.  Hunterdon County getting a crush job and I have to think I'm getting a late night taste.

3 hours ago, PB-99 said:

Keep a few things in mind with this early on.

This reformed North of Hispaniola where it should have been shredded and it now starting to have some have some pretty healthy outflow.

You have 29c in front of it with a ridge keeping it pinned , preventing it from recurving.

So it's getting funneled into some favorable conditions over the next 48 hours.

Then its up. The key for us does it strike S of OBX and come up as an inside runner which would weaken it or will not like the friction and want to stay off.

If the models underestimate the strength in the SE you would want to root for it come in west of OBX because its forward motion would keep a good center intact if it made a B line for Islip.

 

Just tons of time left for any number of solutions.

I haven't seen a lot of talk about potential future interaction with the trough over the eastern U.S.  A few models did have some kind of capture and a crash into the Carolinas.

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Storms moving into Camden yards...the entire crowd left 

As an Oriole diehard I am both amused and incredibly triggered.

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Based on the 100 mile rule, if you want the heaviest rainfall from a TC you want it the center to be about 100 miles to your east.  I remember when Gloria made LF near Bay Shore, the heaviest rains were right over NYC.  When Bob made LF between MTP and Block Island, the heaviest rains were in Queens and Nassau County.  When Floyd made landfall on Jones Beach, the heaviest rains were in NJ and NE PA.  When Irene made landfall near Coney Island, the heaviest rains were in NJ.  When Bertha made landfall near JFK the heaviest rains were in the Poconos.  etc.....

 

I think rainfall will be relatively muted for a TC.  The models have the storm screaming up the coast.  Just not enough time for bigger rains.

Looking pretty solid right now.

One thing about the potential storm surge into LI is that many of these models think this thing is going to be absolutely flying up the coast.  From what I've read the higher the forward speed, the higher the storm surge height, but the less overall land mass that gets flooded.

What kind of interaction might it have with that deep trough?  It might just get captured.

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm surprised models have been showing relatively little intensification once away from the islands. I would think if stays off the coast of Florida it could definitely ramp up

There's a lot of sheer over the east coast and coastal waters.  Something to watch

10 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

The relative consistency of the Euro is becoming concerning.  EDIT: to clarify, the track.

I hate myself for asking this but there's no chance of blocking and a Sandy event is there?  We have had some unusual flow patterns this summer, cutoff and retrograding lows.

3 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

That seems to imply an exceedingly small storm, would think with baroclinic forcing at this latitude the wind field would be broader and the region of max gusts wouldn't have such a tight gradient.

93/71 with a breeze doesn't feel all that bad.  can't tell if i am adjusting to our new climate norms or my brain is just hopeful that heat stroke will bring it sweet release from the endless horrorshow that is 2020.

the important thing is i got fresh cold peaches and plums in the fridge so there's still something to look forward to.

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The radar just exploded over our area

This is incredibly heavy rain and it's been going on for a while now too.

Looking at the radar it's like there was some convergence between the outflow ahead of the line and the outflow from the storms to the north, and the first cell popped over Middlesex.  Now the rest of the line is consolidating with it.  It's very dark outside, fairly gusty, but wow the rain is nuts.  Major street flooding.

Saw a few pieces of hail up to nickel size.  Based on the sirens I'm assuming some of those bolts found a target.  Might've gotten a few on video.

Tons and tons of CTG in this line.

2 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Looking WSW from Piscataway some cloud is throwing regular lightning every 5ish seconds.  Must be tiny because I hardly see anything on radar but it's there.

Maybe every 2ish seconds.  Someone's boat is getting serious rain.

Edit: this thing is lighting up.  Wow!

Looking WSW from Piscataway some cloud is throwing regular lightning every 5ish seconds.  Must be tiny because I hardly see anything on radar but it's there.

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah i've been hearing them tonight too

Where you at?  I live in the Pleasantview Gardens apartments off Carlton Avenue.  We must be close.

2 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Piscataway, I am hearing thunder from somewhere north and west.

F me ignore this just fireworks at 11 PM on a Sunday.  I've heard three times as many fireworks this summer as I have any other summer.

Piscataway, I am hearing thunder from somewhere north and west.

Impressive cell over me in Piscataway, might've gusted to 50 at one point.  The rain is heavier now than probably any point yesterday.  Ponding all over the place, we might be at 0.75"?  Few CTC rumblers too.

Ya'll got the drought-breaker

If I had a choice where my taxes went I'd give 100% to the National Weather Service.

If I had Elon Musk bucks I'd be building all kinds of radars and satellites to make GOES-16 look like a Tinker Toy.  You'd be counting how many birds were trapped in Fay's circulation.  You'd be able to identify them by specie.

shit I wish I was rich.

Reflective question for you gents, not attempting some slight at anyone.  How long ago was it we (myself included) were bitching about drought, contemplating pattern changes, etc.

How long ago was Fay on the radar?  MAYBE a week?  Probably at most 4 days ago.

I am remembering today the next time and every time we talk about the inevitability of next week's weather.

Shouldn't there be a 2 PM update out?  I thought the NHC was doing 3-hour updates.

@winterwx21 @Stormlover74 guess we aren't getting missed today boys lmao

Getting straight pasted.  Typical ebb and flow tropical storming.  When it kicks up it's fairly impressive.