Santa Claus

12 minutes ago, justinj said:

I feel like winds are always overdone in these type of storms 

how many setups do we see that look like this?

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

Any chance of a quick spinup?

i asked the same question, i guess it's telling that none of the AFDs mentioned TOR (that i saw).

i guess the helicity isn't really there, and this is more of straight line wind event but it's being driven by the warm front?  idk this is a weird one.

1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

I can't believe we are talking TOR a week after a major winter storm.  This is just insane. 

i'm just asking a question, have no idea if that's even remotely feasible in this setup.  NWS doesn't mention TOR at all.

46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s been a big year for squall lines. This could be one of the most intense low topped squall lines that we have seen on Christmas. I wonder what the annual record number is for all types of squall lines in the region?

 

great point.  we've had some ragers this year.

this one though, if it pans out as depicted, looks like something special.  it's coming in as a straight line top to bottom, almost no bowing, and runs the length of much of the eastern seaboard.  can't remember anything like that ever happening in recent memory.  the low its attached to isn't really showing a comma head of precip, it's like there's just a big wall of fury coming in at a right angle.

question since i don't know where to find soundings for upcoming events: is there a TOR threat with the screaming S flow and what i assume is some directional shear as you climb through the air?  i feel like events with strong southerly flow tend to be decent TOR threats for us.

4 minutes ago, snywx said:

01z HRRR

congrats Albany lol

it was puking sleet in Piscataway before it abruptly cut over to heavy snow, and then the sleet came back.  i am guessing it's gonna be frozen vegetable medley until the CCB develops.

18 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good for you Will. In the old Italian tradition, that means your healthy. As always .....

i could be having a heart attack in the middle of dinner and my grandmother would still be shoveling meatballs on my plate instead of calling 911

christ i got fat this year

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Can everyone live with this??? I think it's realistic, with another 1-4" coming I80 LI after 5AM and 3-6" coming after 5A n of I80 in far nw NJ/ne PA and se NYS CT. 

 

We'll see if this comes down a bit in future cycles?

if i lost all this sleep just for 6 inches of frozen concrete i am going to run towards the nearest living thing and kill it

flurries in Piscataway

i can't wait for the drama in 36 hours

looking at the bounty of razor-thin forecasts and models, it's entirely possible every single person in the entire forum ends up unhappy

7 hours ago, Maureen said:

I know. I have so much ignored content at this point I’m seeing entire blank pages 

honestly what kind of sadist actually reads other people's posts

winter's cancelled again just FYI, everyone had it right the first time

snowblower stocks plummeting right now

do you guys remember when winter was cancelled last month?

lol

4 minutes ago, Chet-NYC said:

I come to this site whenever there is the potential for a large storm to hit NYC, usually snow events.  I love that I can see here maps and predictions that aren't on the regular commercial weather sites or on television.   However, there one thing that bothers me about many of the posts- the cheering on and wish for bigger, heavier, more damaging storms and snow totals.

Sure, I understand the amazement of a large snow storm.  I used to feel the same way.  Then came January 1996 and the morning I woke up to a 40" snow drift that forced me to climb out a window because my front door was blocked.  It took two days to clear snow from my car.  It took weeks for the National Guard and NYC Sanitation to get the mountains of snow here on Staten Island out of the way.   While under 20" fell in Central Park,  on Staten Island, about 15 -16 miles south, we were in that small band where about 30" fell.    There were parking lots that still had small snow mountains in May that year. 

From that day on, I have despised snow.

This week, if a foot or so of snow falls, please look at the down side.

It is going to cost NYC a fortune in overtime to clear the streets.  Considering the budgetary catastrophe that COVID has brought the city, this is just pouring salt into that wound.

For hundreds of small (and large) developments, snow removal is almost always the single biggest expense they incur in a year.  I live in a group of 24 small townhomes.  Our homeowner's dues raise $43,200 a year. Clearing a foot of snow from our two parking lots and the sidewalks will cost about 20% of that total.  

For many people who still need to go to work in person, storms like this are a massive inconvenience as they disrupt public transportation and often make driving impossible.

So, when you sit here and cheer for more snow and you whine when the storm doesn't deliver a record amount, remember, there are a lot of us who a really hoping that the storm moves in a way that it becomes a rain event, or leaves just a few inches on the ground, easy to clear and move on.  

If you love giant snow storms that much, move to where they are common.  Move to upstate New York where the lake effect will make you happy all winter long. 

you know we can't actually change the weather right

watching people react to weenie model runs is like watching children shake their wrapped gifts on Christmas and excitedly trying to figure out what's inside

and then Christmas comes and the box is empty and you can drink their sorrows.  oh jeez mom 35F and cold rain again?

"New Jersey Monthly magazine ranked Secaucus as its 182nd best place to live in its 2010 rankings of the "Best Places To Live" in New Jersey, after ranking the borough 11th in its 2008 rankings.^["

^{what do you guys think happened in those two years}

^{why isn't the media talking about this}

roughly centered on Philadelphia, covers most of NJ except areas most north and northeast and most of E PA.  take care if you are traveling late tonight, freezing fog can create extremely dangerous conditions on roads and sidewalks.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
353 PM EST Thu Dec 10 2020

DEZ001-NJZ007-009-010-012-013-015>022-027-PAZ060>062-070-071-
101>106-111000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.ZF.Y.0001.201211T0300Z-201211T1400Z/
New Castle-Warren-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-
Cumberland-Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-Berks-Lehigh-
Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Washington, Flemington,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Trenton, Pennsville,
Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson,
Millville, Hammonton, Wharton State Forest, Reading, Allentown,
Bethlehem, Easton, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
353 PM EST Thu Dec 10 2020

...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter to one half mile in freezing fog
  and slippery roadways.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest and southern
  New Jersey, east central and southeast Pennsylvania and
  northern Delaware.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility and
  potential frost on bridges.

overperformer, i was expecting nuisance flakes and on/off precip.  it's been constant light snow for hours.

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Makes sense though with so many choosing wisely to stay home this year 

as disastrous as this year has been there's been a bunch of random "winners."  christmas tree farms, sure why not.

to paraphrase an old forky post, you pretty much need a perfect synoptic setup just to get to below average anymore.

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Light snow for nyc Wednesday morning. 

i weenie'd your post, but only to be ironic 

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Remember the squall we had last year in mid December? That was crazy.

did we have another the year before, too.

both events were basically the hardest snows i ever saw in my life or at least the most violent.  visibility could be counted in single digit feet.  the irony was, because snow was coming, pretty much everyone in the office started getting in their cars to go home like 10 minutes before game time.  i failed to convince them that was a bad idea.

Just now, CIK62 said:

What's with the TORNADO WATCH from just south of NYC down through Delaware?

tornadoes may be afoot 

there is a warned storm in Delaware associated with the line that will be passing through

Winds are pretty quiet here in Piscataway, still very warm.  Are we in for Funderstorms with a cold front passage?