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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    With some of the soundings we’ve seen and the strength of the low, I’m hard pressed to think we don’t have some great rates given that + the fronto and h5 pass
  2. DDweatherman
    If Randy comes back for Nam pbp and progress is erased, it’s gonna be a riot
  3. DDweatherman
    They’ve been advecting slowly southward
  4. DDweatherman
    I hear you, I think it may. The temps currently are actually dropping. Some noticeable CAA (tho the air isn’t that cold) bleeding in from the north. you want a tickle from that n/s wave that has helped keep this south of previous progs. For one, it’ll help bleed in some more cold air, and two it’ll cause some nice dynamics on the NW side of the low. H7 and h85 lows do close off nearby
  5. DDweatherman
    Rap didn’t look too bad most recently in its new run. Respectable outcomes for the lsv crew.
  6. DDweatherman
    I mean, the primary low is already down to 995mb in the TN valley. Impressive at this stage. That transfer is gonna have a 987 over OCMD
  7. DDweatherman
  8. DDweatherman
    2 run trend shows the QPF swath actually shifted south slightly on 23z HR3...after the last few bumps back north
  9. DDweatherman
    It'll be crazy to see what the ground truth on this thing is. One of the more notable shifts inside 36 and 24 hours of recent memory.
  10. DDweatherman
  11. DDweatherman
    Another note is for all the people saying the de-amping is causing a weaker low, its actually trended 988 to 986 in the same frame over the last 3 runs.
  12. DDweatherman
    The compaction of the shield is a tough one to know until very close to gametime. I expect an extremely intense band on the NW edge given this storms structure and some subsidence with the N/S wave pressing down on our low, which will be deepening pretty explosively. A 988 over the chesapeake bay in this set up is going to produce some serious rates and possible thunder snow. The tight shield if it verifies is just another point to believe this would fall extremely heavily in the snow zone.
  13. DDweatherman
    It sounds like a weak nothing burger everywhere based on the NYC/NE threads.
  14. DDweatherman
    I'd lock that in a heartbeat.
  15. DDweatherman
    That's a fair move SE
  16. DDweatherman
    It did bring things south however, getting closer. It was our furthest north model.
  17. DDweatherman
    That’s bad for most people on the east coast minus Philly to nyc and 6-8 is the max really
  18. DDweatherman
    6z euro is almost too deamped like the nothing burner gem and uk runs 2-3 days ago
  19. DDweatherman
    Yep, and 2-4” for N and parts of CMD on 0z Euro. Made a nice south move. Doesn’t have heavy stuff like the other media over s pa/n Md but a nice swath.
  20. DDweatherman
    My wife and kids left on one of the allegiant flights from HGR today lol. They had to try that out since it was last minute, seems like ok value if you only check like 1 bag.
  21. DDweatherman
    @mitchnickcan you post 12z ukmet?
  22. DDweatherman
    The question is what do we do if the nam looks like 18z again and the other models go south more? Mitch the gem including those off hour gem runs might be the worst model out there. Canadian had a non event and that has 12-18” north side of NYC and a foot in town. good news is if nyc gets a foot we probably snow 3-6 here lol
  23. DDweatherman
    I’m at 14” for the year in Carroll Valley
  24. DDweatherman
    Makes you want one more shift like the gfs just did again, then we can all rejoice
  25. DDweatherman
    Gfs was a nice little s/se tick. Vort continued to be weaker and a bit more south out west and as it moved E. It was a nice improvement surprisingly.
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