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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    If the nams can't handle a storm 6 hours away....what's the purpose lol? Read my mind. If it says it getting 6” 12 hours from now and I get 2, that’s a poor performance.
  2. DDweatherman
    A rollback, sick. There have been doubles. I’m sorry roo
  3. DDweatherman
    That’s what I just said in the storm thread, just didn’t translate at the surface. The great American comeback?
  4. DDweatherman
    36/24 mostly clear dont know why it showed as a reply. Sorry
  5. DDweatherman
    I’m laughing, but you’re not wrong. The 18z euro wasn’t bad aloft, just didn’t really cause better QPF on the periphery. RGEM with a shot of redemption. Was actually better at 18 than 12. And let’s not forget the ICON which has liked this storm for a week.
  6. DDweatherman
    Not bad, but not maximizing the lift in the DGZ. That being said, much better than 18Z. Those are the rates folks need. “the cedar point storm”
  7. DDweatherman
    Ninjad on what I was gonna say on the nw periphery aided by a slightly more amped s/w and better trajectory. 3k seems to have gone that way too
  8. DDweatherman
    Yeah @psuhoffman that run of the NAM was sweet. The h5 looked markedly better and that second maxima over us that some earlier runs had was aided by solid ML fgen.
  9. DDweatherman
    Same. It’s sadly not as easy as it looks sometimes. The sref has been the trend setter a few times in our days. Radar doesn’t look awful
  10. DDweatherman
    I also think we’re all optimistic about the pattern and mid week looking legit at day 4 leads.
  11. DDweatherman
    My bar is 2”, need a stats ladder. 2.5 makes 20 on the season
  12. DDweatherman
    This is getting uneventful if you wanted the exciting fast and furious snow. That’s for sure. Keep expectations in check. Thought we might amp further as well but can’t win em all. We’ll see what the ground truth is, Radar looks okay.
  13. DDweatherman
    It’s decent, good mix of all the models.
  14. DDweatherman
    Hard not to like the simplicity of that evolution with a solid feed of moisture into damn cold air.
  15. DDweatherman
    By no means am I expecting it, but this is usually when the NAM comes in more amped and weenies out.
  16. DDweatherman
    The euro is a sick run for mid-late week. We all love those types of events.
  17. DDweatherman
    Great point. I definitely agree that’s true. Mesoscale features especially in a fast moving, borderline event where rate dependencies play a role arent going to be picked up across the board thanks to the differing resolutions.
  18. DDweatherman
    Nothing really to cause a tight cutoff on that one on the NW side. Would tend to agree here. I like 3-5” for most. SE folks get there from better rates and we do via better thermals.
  19. DDweatherman
    Such nice disagreement not even 18 hrs before onset. Fun hobby we have.
  20. DDweatherman
    That started a nice run for us that went through March too.
  21. DDweatherman
    Headed to gym, someone post the euro when it’s out. 40 at home
  22. DDweatherman
    You can tell we’re in an okay pattern with snow expected tomorrow. Otherwise folks would be lighting this thread up with current models showing what they are. 12z gfs was nice, hope it gets more euro support
  23. DDweatherman
    I already like our odds for mid-week. We’re only 4.5 days out and the overrunning piece is a relatively “easier” way to score.
  24. DDweatherman
    Agreed. A lot of the meso models have had a secondary max out that way and thermals will be more favorable.
  25. DDweatherman
    Good map. Starting to think us in the N&W will do best as models have shown secondary banding here to go w/better thermals. Can compensate and accumulate even if rates aren’t crazy.
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