DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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We love having the JV models (a la RGEM on our side), usually the ICON. The king aka GFS will be sure to give a better idea momentarily.
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Is there something wrong with the forum? Rgem spreads 4-6 from our forum up 95 and not a peep here.
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Problem is for those who want to mention it, the "trends" or the actual output, both at the surface and especially at h5 are not in the right direction. The reality is it there are a few more moves like that to the euro/more of that, there will be some unhappy folks in thread. Hard to ignore the 12z suite across the board suppressing flow and the influence of the northern piece of energy.
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I'm just hoping we got the S/E trend suite out of the way to actually move a storm/evolution type that models almost always have historically brought northwest.
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That's for sure. Right about now is when the last storm started to even enter as a possibility for being a decent snow maker.
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With this storm I'm more optimistic that should happen being a N/S system. Good to see the consolidated low idea vs miller b jumping idea. Now I'd just like typical climo and trends to occur. Doesn't look like a shutout this time even on the south runs so that's good.
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GFS is going to be south judging by sfc progs at 60, and also h5 looking much more pos tilted vs 6z. Suspect we'll see the max amounts lining up with yesterdays totals.
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More likely to see this storm (N/S based) trend north and west than a SS system in a Nina, so there is that.
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This is very accurate, definitely more a hybrid. Concerning to see the southern max on some of the 12z suite models thus far and the Euro this morning after whiffing yesterday's event.
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Agreed, the ICON is pretty ideal and the 6z GFS would do. ICON was a great run just a few minutes ago, but can the GFS follow suit. Definitely 2 ways to fail, Miller B screw job or RGEMesque de-amped progressive system.
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Textbook for a N/S system and that tilt at our lat.
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The ICON might be the new high water mark for this storm thus far on that 12z run. Waiting for the accumulated precip/corresponding snow maps to update. Pretty textbook warning+ level event 81 to 95 and up the coast. Great low track
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My biggest concern with this storm for sure, northern stream driven system in a Nina.
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Saw that! I think more people need to be talking about the natural disaster thats basically unfolded on I 95 from DC to Fredericksburg. Some people have now been stranded 20 straight hours and not moved. Cars abandoned, disabled vehicles everywhere, people trying to conserve gas in 20 degree temperatures. 50 miles of the highway closed in both directions, with the northbound side making no progress. Road completely refroze and turned to a sheet of ice. Its commutageddon all over but maybe worse in some cases.
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He's not wrong, its better. GFS was technically south last run, but more or less was a non-event.
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I personally just don't the progressive trends for Friday's event, would love to see a slightly more dug in s/w that moves to the coast slightly south of where it has. Like the idea of snow being pretty widespread across guidance, but we've seen the miller B history in the past.
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Lighter amounts on both vs 12z, but overall solid support for an area wide advisory level event. 18z RGEM and GEFS looked good too.
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I am a bit concerned about this storm de-amping down to very little, but the Euro ensembles are still pretty decent overall on 12z for the threat. More N/S this time than the S/S of today's event, so we'll see.
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The GFS says pretty much nothing for late week, Euro this time the one with snow. Should note the GFS has more support in all honesty (ICON, UKMET)
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There are literally people walking on 495 and it looks like a plow never touched parts of the road in hours.
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RGEM looked primed at 84 as well for the late week potential.
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@psuhoffman realizing I replied all to the zoom from earlier. Agreed on that northern cutoff, the temps are just way warmer than we’d expect for this type of gradient.
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It is similar to 6z but upstairs is a hair better again. Not a bad spot to be in considering what we’ve seen the last few runs of both the GFS/Euro and the “trends” that have consistently pushed the goods further and further NW. Temp profiles are nice too.
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It’s really not terribly different over Baltimore county. Mappyland gets about 7” on Kuchera maps, similar to last run. Synoptic evolution and h5 says this could still end up more classic climo by the post storm analysis
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The one above is the ICON, but yeah no NAM watching. Problem with the icon even though it doesn’t carry much weight is that it has a bit of that northern stream interaction/interference we were getting rid of hence the nice improvements last night/overnight. Euro at 6z might have the best h5 look overall, and you saw what the outcome was there.
