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DDweatherman

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  1. DDweatherman
    Just a reminder the GFS isn't to be used for situations/events like these. Just at 18z yesterday, they had 3-5" along 95, while the euro had .5-1.5". Euro still has a better resolution and performed a bit better with this one. We know these are notoriously tricky and tough ones to do well in even during peak climo periods.
  2. DDweatherman
    Yeah he meant the HREF graphic that showed 1”/hr average snow rates across DC metro
  3. DDweatherman
    Agreed. I’m going to be near Taylorsville in Carroll Co. for this one, so should get to see some decent rates in the AM.
  4. DDweatherman
    Agree, really like the improvement. AND... this is one of those things where minute improvements can have big impact downstream wrt surface truth, low track, precip, etc. if we get more phasing to occur
  5. DDweatherman
    I will say I like the backside amplification of the N/S which the last run did not have.
  6. DDweatherman
    These aren't really dramatic changes run over run that I'm seeing through 48, a little east-er S/S and south on the N/S dig. We'll really know in the next 3 frames.
  7. DDweatherman
    Then those positive changes are negligent I feel like by 60 hours... basically same as 18z, overall system held back a bit more.
  8. DDweatherman
    I actually like h5 thru 39 if were being honest with each other here
  9. DDweatherman
    Definitely wasn't worse... but only some of us can interpret outputs I guess.
  10. DDweatherman
    Let's hear a little more about your thoughts. The evolution verbatim I'm not sure it will get with all these waves in flow.
  11. DDweatherman
    Didn't realize the RGEM was a solid improvement actually from 12z oddly enough. Better phase further west.
  12. DDweatherman
    Same, that was better in some ways. 18z GFS is also "not worse" than 12z if you ask me. Bleeding stopped maybe we can now bring it NW.
  13. DDweatherman
    Yeah it's quite a coincidence for sure lol. Thank God I chose to take this past event in Deep Creek. However, we all know nothing is the same as our backyards taking the big hits.
  14. DDweatherman
    Do you think we have the option of a solid event if the northern stream can keep digging regardless of the southern stream energy. In that regard, Euro and some of the 12z's gave us hope (ICON, NAM come to mind)
  15. DDweatherman
    Now you know I'm not. But the Euro is just not the pedestal model it was, and we've seen its performance this season on some systems. That being said, as I mentioned earlier, the flow is just too fast and progressive to have more than a Bob Chill type 3-6/4-8 type event. But that would still likely occur south of us because of where the energy is interacting and the digging of the streams. Lots of reasons not to buy into the good runs besides it being the only model showing snow...
  16. DDweatherman
    I would say if we got a positive trend from the GFS, then maybe. Definitely not showing the same thing now and the GFS went the other way at 12z.
  17. DDweatherman
    What we really need to hope is what I posted yesterday, that the GFS and Euro meet in the middle.
  18. DDweatherman
    Saw that post you just deleted Randy... haha
  19. DDweatherman
    48 was pretty bad, but the northern dig helps make up some of our ground. We're trending positive that way and negative with the southern energy. Sadly, the overall outcome because of that trade off will go more in the way of the GFS.
  20. DDweatherman
    At least it will be a low suspense ending for the brief hope we had. Still was fun doing the PBP of those runs with monster hits.
  21. DDweatherman
    Through 48, I think it's already early enough to say next based on h5. Energy held back more to the sw and northern stream not as far S. And I don't have a reason to poo poo the threat, I want snow just as much as Randy does.
  22. DDweatherman
    Keep us posted as the run comes out.
  23. DDweatherman
    We've seen that one before... so don't rule it out.
  24. DDweatherman
    Funny wouldn't be the word. I'd probably jump off the balcony into a snow drift here at Deep Creek if the Euro holds.
  25. DDweatherman
    You all can crucify me later for waving the white flag. Weather isn’t just models and you know that as well. Our base state and the speed of the flow argues against a Euro like solution and phase. 18z last night was it’s peak there with amping our wave. Happy to eat my words if needed but under normal circumstances we’d be ready to call this one.
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