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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    12z GEFS supports the op from a mean perspective. More strung out trough which would indicate energy being held to the SW.
  2. DDweatherman
    It's believable the GFS could be mishandling S/S energy and its release, but the release of that energy to phase w/our system is like 48-54 hour lead, pretty short. Then again, we ask ourselves...can the Euro and its EPS be that off as well with it?
  3. DDweatherman
    The GFS really has improved drastically this year. Sadly, we'll like what we see on the GEFS most likely re: what @MillvilleWxjust said about them not being upgraded. May explain why 6z GEFS had some good hits.
  4. DDweatherman
    The NAM at 12z really improved the N/S as well and did release the S/S energy vs 6z.
  5. DDweatherman
    What's weird is the 6z euro even outpaced the N/S a bit with that southern energy. it was going to phase later but pull the storm even more north. The GFS and CMC have the S/S obviously trailing.
  6. DDweatherman
    Somehow not overall a worse outcome vs 6z. If the GFS is just a little wrong with the S/S energy, we'd be in business. However, the latest RGEM did the same overall evolution. Even the ICON I'd say was good with the N/S, but that energy needs to release.
  7. DDweatherman
    If we could have seen any sort of progress in releasing the SS energy, we'd probably have a hit this run. Other models have released it quicker but the GFS looks like the RGEM which was a big step back at 12z IMO. It's about curtains for this one in my opinion.
  8. DDweatherman
    Even if the N/S is an improvement, which it is a bit more S by 66, the phasing we'd need to match the Euro evolution would be really difficult progressing from there.
  9. DDweatherman
    S/S energy is more the S/W and even when the N/S releases, it's tilted very positively. Hard to get anything to amplify in that scenario.
  10. DDweatherman
    Too bad the GFS is unfortunately heading in the opposite direction to these weenie eyes.
  11. DDweatherman
    Let me save you guys the time this run, the GFS won't look like the Euro this run. S/S energy held back more at 54 and N/S digging less.
  12. DDweatherman
    There might not even be a storm to discuss after the Euro runs (Ji hacked my keyboard)
  13. DDweatherman
    RGEM certainly isn't going to get it done this run. Much more positive tilt and less digging from the N/S piece of things.
  14. DDweatherman
    model*, at least of late haha. I'm still enjoying deep winter in Garret Co where it has been snowing more or less for 2 days. Seeing the GFS cave to the Euro while snow falls outside would be great.
  15. DDweatherman
    Yeah, I don't love the look of the ICON personally. More digging, but it would appear too late and too much pos tilt.
  16. DDweatherman
    I see what you did there.
  17. DDweatherman
    The euro historically has done very well vs the GFS modeling SS s/w's. That is one of the reasons I think it has a potential to at least be partially correct. However, as many have mentioned, lead times are getting pretty short.
  18. DDweatherman
    It really is interesting over the years Steve that when the Euro has been on its own with a solution and the rest of the models don't have it, the trend is almost always for the Euro to trend to the others. This has especially been the case where it was bullish on snow (though thats probably when were paying the most attention).
  19. DDweatherman
    2 runs going the other way with heights if we're being honest with ourselves. I don't know that the euros full phased MECS is the right idea with no support still at 3.5 day leads.
  20. DDweatherman
    I mean I certainly hope the Euro holds firm. The EPS/it’s members are in strong agreement here.
  21. DDweatherman
    Great move by the GFS. Now the question is do they meet in the middle or does the Euro hold at 0z with a flush hit like the last 2 runs.
  22. DDweatherman
    I’m not trying to discourage model analysis, but yours is incorrect way to often to give much credence to it. Obviously there’s more s/w energy held back from 18z…
  23. DDweatherman
    Sure was, the drifting was incredible. Even now, still have drifts everywhere over this way. Amazing conditions over here. One for the books.
  24. DDweatherman
    That the NAM is damn close and was a good improvement at end of run?
  25. DDweatherman
    Would agree, the field here made it impossible to see a few feet in front of us. Felt like I was in Watertown again.
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