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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    I didn’t want to log in just to say but yes it’s the NAVGEM formerly NOGAPS.
  2. DDweatherman
    Bring that over here! We’re snowing pretty good with the wind, but give me those dendrites and good snow growth!
  3. DDweatherman
    SN & 26 here
  4. DDweatherman
    Radar has filled overhead in Carroll county, and the goods have commenced yet again...
  5. DDweatherman
    Man I wish bob chill were here for this
  6. DDweatherman
    Cue Bingo card @NorthArlington101
  7. DDweatherman
    Starting to see what you’ve mentioned take shape on the ML maps. We’re still a few hours away on the surface reflection, but the radar has taken a more N/S orientation already.
  8. DDweatherman
    Yep starting to pick up and changeover to a majority snow here. The back edge has slowed w of HGR, but it’s still moving NE a bit. Cue @psuhoffmanto tell us where the lagging ULL energy is to spark off some good banding if it shall come.
  9. DDweatherman
    Don’t look now but there is a slight pivot to a more N/S Orientation on our radar, and snow is picking up here with occasional pingers mixed in.
  10. DDweatherman
    Check that, now back to snow mixed in down in Westminster even before the good returns move back in.
  11. DDweatherman
    With the changeover coming W to E just west of us now, I’d favor better thermals occurring. Does the current swath now basically pivot to the NW/SE orientation? Or are we refiring more Precip again.
  12. DDweatherman
    You’d think with almost all models hitting on that now at <6 hrs lead time, we should get a couple inches... and it would dump pretty good with the ULL.
  13. DDweatherman
    And as @psuhoffman said the NAM was out, it throws us some snow tonight on the 0z.
  14. DDweatherman
    50/50 snow & sleet? You’re at the leading edge of that precip shield too if so.
  15. DDweatherman
    More and more optimistic about the euro being onto something for tonight seeing our winds veer to the north and the Radar blossoming to the south. That warm nose should be gone in the next hour or two for the favored spots as the low gets up to our latitude and wraps up as well. Closed h85 low right on top of us to help enhance some Precip returns.
  16. DDweatherman
    Called 5-8" here in our neck of the woods in northern Carroll. If the backend does anything like the Euro said, I'll barely bust low, otherwise its a pretty spot on forecast. Sitting at 7" after part 1.
  17. DDweatherman
    Changeover line on CC radar is heading east/NE through Luray at the moment. Behind it explains why we have snow reports on the 81 corridor. If that's the case, the column should support snow again before that slug moves in. @WxUSAFthoughts?
  18. DDweatherman
    Yeah, if I get another 5” here overnight consider this an awesome event. And that would put me at 12” total!
  19. DDweatherman
    That's good to hear. IF that stuff in SWVA makes it hear, makes me optimistic we can snow more without having to relay on vort snows swinging in overnight.
  20. DDweatherman
    Its a single stream shortwave which is a lot easier to flatten than someone that phases of course.
  21. DDweatherman
    Until now, which of course is too late. But you'll see the 850 line push east again in the next 2-3 hours.
  22. DDweatherman
    If that’s the case, expect us to do well with this pivot/backside vort this evening!
  23. DDweatherman
    @Eskimo Joe We are closed off at the mid levels, looks like 850 and 925 we're seeing closed circulations. Looks like they'll make a decent pass for us this evening.
  24. DDweatherman
    I think there will be some pretty good dynamics around and a relatively good h85 pass this evening if we can get the column right to tack on a few inches of powder.
  25. DDweatherman
    Hr 9 of the 21z HRRR has a nice band of moderate to heavy snow covering HGR-FDK-DMW. Would probably produce pretty good ratios in that band since the dynamics on the sounding are relatively impressive
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