SouthCoastMA

Yeah at 24h looked warmer for front end..maybe a product of the weaker precip shield as mentioned. How's the reach around looking Sunday afternoon?

Looking out over Sagamore beach this morning. pretty calm

12z models have been mostly ass for the coast. nowcast time anyway /w

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s actually a good met but a) rides the euro way too much and b) doesn’t have good social skills.

It's possible he got more crumudgeony with age too

I remember DT on the radio shows back in the mid to late 2000s. Always enjoyed his banter/analysis back when it was Eastern before pending snow storms, haven't followed him much in the years since tbh

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think pope is Dick Tolleris. Similar anger, similar lies, similar inability to accept responsibility for awful calls, similar posting styles…ya have to think maybe they are he and he is him.

Einhorn is Finkle

Finkle is Einhorn

when one even receives shade from Will, you know thee have sinned

NAM was warmer here. we out again

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 

HRRR outside of 12 hours, disqualified

I know which suite of models I'm rooting for..

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s not. But there is the chance it’s a red flag for the system .

For me, the red flag for mby is the RGEM. I know it's not regarded well around here but I usually find it nails the rain snow lines pretty well. Anecdotal I know. Guess we'll see if Reggie on crack

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Holy smokes, what a rug pull on the euro. Take em down.

JAM

not saying it's wrong, but let's wait til 12z

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice trends overnight for this area. Let’s crank that CCB tomorrow.

Made a slight comeback down here too..maybe I'll squeak out a couple inches from Orchids. Just hate being shut out

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z HRRR 

That run blows

Really sucks missing out on this one with two potential cutters on deck. 

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

I still don’t know which of these I should look at.  When do you use one vs the other?

question for tomorrow is whether we get a Messenger Shuffle or some Jeff Jumps.

 

I miss the Messenger Shuffle - wish we still had those but maybe models are too good now.  Or maybe they occur more when the confluence press is strengthening, rather than waning. 

I feel like any jumps now are typically just noise, and wobble back after a couple cycles. 

ha 0" here. it's always nice tracking something for 4+ days just to end up with nada

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The eps mean I s basically what I would forecast personally. Maybe less within 5 miles of the coast.

seems like a tamer version of the GFS. 

the 12z GFS was the ceiling in my opinion, and the RGEM got close. 

That RGEM run would even work here if it ticked about 25 miles. Crazy solution

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Icon is a little torchy here, don’t like.

That trough interaction is what makes it dicey for se areas..you can see the low get tugged northward/northwestward towards LI before it shoots east, which changes coastal sections over. I suppose we also want to see the confluence stand strong, or start ticking stronger again. 

Dang, I think I'm out unless models start ticking back southeast a bit. maybe an inch on the backend 

Still some spread. wouldn't lock anything in yet

Those western members near Long island are gross 

6z euro cooled off a tad?

Still a lot of time left. id lock this run in now if I could

what will happen is that this will trend to an elongated boob low ramming into Tolland CT, with its saggy counterpart scooting east of Nantucket.