mimillman

Bit more than an inch down here 

Starting to get a bit windy out there 

View in wicker

30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Here's something that's kind of hard to believe.  Chicago's record daily snowfall for 12/22 is 3.6", which is tied with December 21 for the lowest value in December.

Also, there have only been 2 snowfalls over 2" on 12/22 -- in 1953 and 2009.

Wouldn’t expect today to get added to the list…

Mood flakes here and decent dendrites 

Flurries have commenced here 

HRRR gonna threaten the Alek call

Everyone’s favorite model the SREF is pretty consistent at 9z. Looks like ORD plumes have all but 1 member above 4”, a cluster between 4-6”, and a cluster of 8-10”. The mean is skewed high as a result, but think the lower cluster could pan out, albeit highly ratio-dependant.

Some other stations I’m rooting for:

Benton Harbor, MI: mean of 28.5”

GRR: mean of 20.5”

South Bend: mean of 18.7”

Toledo: mean of 3.8”

Lansing, aka the snow desert of the Midwest: 9.1”

Indy: 4.7”

The plumes in SW MI are some of the most impressive SREF outputs I’ve seen for this area with a cluster at 17-25” and a cluster at 25-35”.

A trip to Benton Harbor may be in order for this one…

14 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

I've been fighting Josh for years. I don't know why I bother anymore. I guess i thought i could wear him down but hes been consistently glass half full. He looks at the big picture, while I prefer the big dog and fine with no snow outside of that. Different strokes I suppose. I'll take C- from a dry/ornery negative Nancy like yourself. If you were a professor, you'd prob flunk a whole class cause you could. 

This is funny 

33 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Nice little uptick.  I'll increase the call for here from 1-3" up to 2-3".

Bring back Natester

4 minutes ago, TheNiño said:

Everyone seems cranky in here.

++entertainment value

I like the 3-6” call for LOT CWA. I think biggest congrats are in order for the GRR crew. It is rare to see your office, who routinely sounds grumpier than me in their AFDs, hype up an event. And it seems warranted.

Also good to see Ohio get it on the action given they’ve ACTUALLY had bad luck past few winters

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

00z NAM looks to be an upgrade especially for s MI. The low stays on the Michigan side of L Huron through the deepening process. I don't know if it does any good for Chicago, but it may mean that some forecast amounts for MI are low. I think this evolution is going to create sustained S+ bands across much of lower MI and amounts of 20-25 inches could occur in a few places. Will go for 22.5" at GRR, 15.0" LAN, 6.0" DTW, 12.5" MBS and 17.5" APN, possibly 18-25" TVC and MKG over the full duration of the storm. 

Gonna need another hand for those rare 12” events in Lansing

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

Easy toss.

God amongst models

1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea anyone can paint brush their own snow map in paint, even if you have windows 98. Nicely painted.

I actually used windows 96 for this one 

2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

We're not talking about the start to this winter. Josh can turd polish our snow avg vs other cities all he wants, but we miss out on the big dogs. We discuss this every winter, and nothing changes. It's just the way it is. Life goes on...

Just in case you missed this…

ok I’m done now. Sooooo, how about that SREF 

10 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

How is that wrong? I have lived in this area for the majority of my life. The best storms go west and east of Michigan, it warms up and we lose the few inches we manage to get. Lansing is too far from the lake to get anything other than mood flakes, good storms that make it nearly every time have mixing issues as well.

So, here’s a map of average snowfall in the Midwest. I’m sure Des Moines, Indy, St Louis, Chicago, or a number of other major Midwest metropolitan areas would trade you when it comes to snow in particular 

Just now, cyclone77 said:

Euro def isn't what it used to be.  Better off using tarot cards while trying to forecast anything beyond 72hrs these days lol.

Let’s do it 

4 minutes ago, Baum said:

The Euro is solely responsible for many NWS offices wearing a bag over their head tonight. 

SREF gonna come thru

4 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

Thats because the climo here is among the worst in the midwest lol. Only saving grace are the lake when add a lot of mood flakes.

Now that’s just very wrong 

5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Officially in the phase where I hope the storm just goes AWOL and deliberately spites all guidance and blasts N IL with a meter of snow.

SREF coup has your back until 3z

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’ve never seen so much srefs talk!  I don’t think I’ve considered them as legitimate guidance for >5 years.  My understanding is what you see on the 15z srefs is based on the 12z NAM init which is why there can be a large disconnect between the 15z srefs and the 18z NAM.  Is my understanding correct?

It’s the only legitimate model when times are rough 

Gonna be a pretty stellar LE event for SW Michigan any way you slice it. I can’t remember the last comparable event they’ve had 

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

ride it folks

He grasping