mimillman

1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

I just more am full of hopium in the hopes that you guys further west don't get shut out, I'd take less for more spread the wealth 

We will have our time, don’t worry. And when that happens, it will likely be a nice cold rain for you. 

Just now, Hoosier said:

At least he has the excuse that the storm is within 2-3 days now.

A global model shouldn't be that bad at 2-3 days in theory.  In theory.

Technically it was like 3-4 days out which, it happens. 

Never thought I’d say it but actually, congrats to the NAM. Sniffed this one out beginning yesterday’s 18s runs, outside of its prime range at that

All I can say is, Michigan posters, it will be interesting watching your reaction tomorrow when this trend continues 

Man…

21z SREF drops ORD mean to 3.5”. There are 14 members below to mean, 9 above. Of the 14 members below the mean, 10 of them are < 2”

6 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I've seen worse snowfall maps for N IL today. Keep the trend going. 

Agree, a continuation at 00z would be encouraging 

2 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

LOT updated snow forecast range.

This is a fair forecast

16 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

ECMWF has now halved QPF for Chicago for two straight runs... 24 hours to go from 1.2" to 0.3" QPF

I have a feeling we see a tick back up tonight but nothing major 

16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Seems like euro gives 2-4.  This isn’t pretty…

 

 

I do think ratios will be better than 10:1

WAA makes it into Galena this run 

12 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Our Canadian friend spreads what little wealth there is around, but its a continuation of the trend. 

This is a decent outcome but probably high end of expectation 

I can’t wait until Alek’s 5” call verified because of 4” of WAA followed by an inch from an arctic frontal passage.

I’m actually intrigued if this continues, the initial WAA snows should keep drifting south and might be able to save southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois 

Oh my the NAM is a disaster 

8 minutes ago, King James said:

For sure. I think this sub overall felt they jumped the gun and RC alluded to LOT getting pulled into the fray due to other offices wanting to coordinate 

 

I just think it’s objectively fair to say that the alarm was sounded too early 

 

I appreciate all the Mets who drop in and give us their expert opinions. Can’t win them all 

 

 

Yes, I appreciate RC’s context that they were pulled in early. Not a comfortable position to be in but I could see why some CWAs, perhaps less acquainted to these types of systems, wanted to get an early warning out to the public.

4 minutes ago, King James said:

As it stands they jumped the gun

Tough thankless job tbf. If you nail the call the public thinks “congrats you did your job.” If you call something wrong the public loses faith immediately no matter how good you are 

9 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Well that was fun. Multi-season final 48hr trend will not be denied. 
 

I will take my 2-4 and enjoy the white Chris over the usual warm and brown turd sandwich we are typically served. 

I think ratios will pull out 3-6” but splitting hairs.

Might as well just go with that for my final call across LOT CWA.

3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

mean @ 5 lol

Spread has the 3-6” look and that’s probably where it’ll stay 

4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

I think we need to focus on member MBN4

I don’t know why everyone is so down. We still have the 36 hour HRRR to look forward to

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

wheels really falling off now

Yea I’ll say this trend is worrisome for Michigan and Indiana as well. Need it to completely reverse at 12z otherwise this becomes a standard moderate event, which fine.

The 6z euro likely is again more progressive than 00z. The SE ridge at 500mb is not as amplified again, which prevents our piece of energy from digging as much.

On the bright side, I don’t have to go to Dubuque 

2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Hah that’s funny. Where da RFD posters at 

Don’t worry Detroit and Indy crew, plenty of time for tomorrow’s 12z suite to bring ‘er back