mimillman

RGEM a smidge north but not by much

This seems realistic and in line with my thoughts.

Ill go 3-6” for majority of LOT CWA with closer to 1-2” in the southern counties.

This is the event. We’ve had consistent SN and SN- all day and road conditions are actually poor in the city right now 

RGEM is pretty cool. Too bad these events never pan out for Chicagoland 

Best rates of the 2 days

Solid SN and much better than anything yesterday 

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Next

Lol there is no next 

Outside of an overperformer this weekend, what could have been a promising stretch has been lackluster. The extended looks wholly unremarkable

14 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Today will end up snowier all said and done than yesterday lol

Yup

I do have to say, outside of the short window this AM prior to rush hour, this event underperformed expectations IMBY. We have no remaining accumulation, I certainly underestimated how marginal thermal profiles were. 
 

Generally speaking this is the first time I’ve heard such wide scale complaining  from regular people in terms of lack of snowfall. ORD’s recording season to date aside— which is already lackluster— there has really only been one event this winter with accumulation lasting longer than 12 hours, and that was the pre Christmas storm.

26 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

February 8-9, 2018 begs to differ on them never panning out for Chicago. Also December 31-January 1, 2014. And December 10-11, 2016. It's the nature of fairly narrow snow bands to miss sometimes. I don't think from experience here that we do worse than elsewhere with these fgen banding events.


 

Of course that’s not to say that this WILL pan out for Chicagoland, it’s just wrong to say they never do. Still a toss up in my mind 

24 minutes ago, Baum said:

these never pan out for chicago. Milwaukee or bust. not hard.

That’s wrong 

Getting about a 50/50 RN/SN mix downtown at the office 

50 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

For the crazy SREF watchers, going to get a LOL worthy run at 21z. Going to be interesting if by some miracle the American models end up being correct about a stronger more NW storm. 

The spread is bi-modal with a cluster of MB members at 2-4” and a cluster of AR members at 6-8”

Not so crazy if you believe one over the other which gets you closer to globals

4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Heard the SREFs look better

If only it wasn’t the SREF

Long live futility. Long shall she reign

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Map us

32 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

A good one would be will MSP get to 60" before ORD gets to 20"?

Given the overall look in the extended, it's a non-zero chance that ORD gives that one a run.

I don’t think so

18z euro to Chicagoland: do not pass go, do not collect $200

11 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Dayton with 7"

Chicago what has happened to you??

We’re just like Lansing 

Quality accums in the city today 

4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

p confident we see a northern max band that overperforms somewhere over the cwa with a subsidence screw zone between it and the main systems snows further south out of our area

There is a strong signal for that yes 

2 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Despite the outlier NW 12Z GFS track; main snows still stay SE from Central IL over to DTW. As Euro seems fairly locked in will go 1.5" far NW, 2-3" downtown and southside, 5" Kankakee

 

 

 

Reasonable 

1 minute ago, Baum said:

he doubled his totals from yesterday. Consider him on board the hype train.

I didn’t make a call yday, I just took the under on 2.5” which I’ll still hold for ORD

Going to call a general 1-3” across LOT CWA with potentially 4” in the SE. It should rival the great Christmas blizzard of 2022 in terms of its impressive snow totals. 2” would be the first of the season  Chicago, aka basically Atlanta.