The_Global_Warmer

IIRC the NATL OHC has been stagnant or stalled for 15 yrs.

So we keep see how fast albedo drops. With plentiful sunshine and strong WAA for the foreseeable future

Both globals show GIS ridging and WAA steadily increasing

So whos 2nd or 3rd account is this ? Any guesses

gis is about to get horse torched

The 00z models show big warming over South Greenland.

Every 35k sq/mi is more than enough to measure OHC. The infilling is likely extremely accurate near surface dropping with depth and low coverage.

To be fair. In a way it's kinda b like people like myself who expected the -NAO JJA to be consistent and the ice to only see what you want to see or what held verify the result you expect. Granted the evidence for a hiatus to last to 2030 or longer doesn't exist. But folks got used to it and for some it verified the result they expected or wanted to happen. Its been proven part of the slow down is some change in the SH oceans. The ssts are record low around the SP. But OHC further down started to rapidly climb. Its even effecting glacial outlets from below. But it's also theorized that some of that stored heat is riding a train back to the Indian ocean South of Australia as well as towards the equatorial Pacific. Well see. But the "hiatus" is over.

Who wants that. People want science and theory validated. If humanity keeps ascending then we will be 100% on clean reliable energy anyways

The denier blogs are freaking out over the Nino and huge warmth. The May global sst update will be out soon. Can't wait to see where it ended up. Currently the Indian ocean and Npac are on fire.

Wasn't there a huge ridge there ? Those are huge anomalies tho. Insane really.

Things are are about to Change

There is enough data to know how this is going to play out. We can get a big melt season without the Greenland block. The last two runs of the euro show how. But without flushing there wont be the same level of ice loss.

Its increasing but their graphics are misleading

I've followed arctic weather from May to September daily since 2011.The models have a bias to warm the warm sector of these non cold core vortexes in the medium to long range. Its an incredibly consistent happening.

When everyone isn't speaking the ***holes can't help themselves. This person could have just written some analysis. And like magic there would be a post about it. At this point I would like to see that kind of antagonizing banned from the discussion. If people under no circumstances are allowed to trash bait or antagonize other members. This includes weatherguys ramblings. The quality of discussion would increase a lot. Natural variation has mellowed folks out a lot. Which is great.

Its post Pretty worrisome that the arctic is expected to warm another 7-9C but 2100. Everyone blows off the methane thing. But in a world where snow cover is gone by May 1st except mtns. And the Kara, Laptev, ESS and Chuchki are ice free by mid to late June. That's worrisome. I'd love to see a model run scenarios where those seas are ice free by June 20th. And then a large ridge sets up over the ESS/Chuchki/Laptev. The shelf is 50M or shallower. Most of it is closer to 25M. With that red area mostly 8-15M. Its easy to forget how shallow these regions are. Today we have seen ssts reach 10-12C in the Laptev. I'd guess in the future I described we could see SSTs reach 15-20C for a couple months. But more importantly the water along the sea floor will be way to warm Plus all the extra direct solar heating. Sounds pretty freaking risky to me. By 2080-2100 Co2 will be 550PPM+. Methane easily double today's. Looks like a hell of a gamble

Socialist Utopia is the future

I got some ocean front property in Northern Canada

No. We have never seen basin wide temps above 0C there is always a cool pocket somewhere. Maybe in 2011. You are ignoring way to many ice dynamics. The event about to unfold over the Beaufort region is extreme but its a small area. Its importance is being a staging area for major land based heat intrusions. Late July 2012 had a similar setup. Temps reaching near 30C penetrated into the Beaufort. Since the ssts were like 8C min to the ice. Air that warm could reach thick MYI 300 miles of shore. A large batch of myi saw 20CM a day+ melt rates before the big cyclone

I find extremes very fascinating. This is a possible extreme event. The average end of snow cover in far NW Canada is the first week of June. Percentage wise 50% historical snow cover doesnt happen until around June 10th. With snow cover lasting until June 20th a few years. The average breakup dates for the Northern half of the MacKenzie river are May 25th to June 5th. For the Delta plain the first week of June. Ice free dates June 5th to 15th. The part that really grabs attention is the modeled lows on day 6 on being in the low 50s over the DTA region. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s abd lows in the low 50s at the mouth of the arctic basin in the middle of May is huge. This side of the Summer sun is normally going into snow and ice melt through May. Not only within 3-4 days will the delta plain be near ice free there won't be any snow left. Albedo goes from .55-.80 over snow covered land to .20 or so over green forests and grasslands. Over the lakes, rivers, Delta and arctic ocean it drops to 0.08 roughly. Solar insolation is about 410w/m2. A week from now about 450w/m2. We are talking about a potential regional extra uptake of insolation by the ground/water the next three to four weeks of 8000-10000 w/m2. Of course it won't be that much. But with ice and snow that drops to 1500-4000 w/m2. And whatIs is absorbed goes to melting not warming the ground water and air. Gonna be fun to track

No. We are already past precondtioning. Albedo has already plummeted. Hundreds of miles out into the Beaufort and Chuchki. 2008, 09, 10 has fresh dry snow not only over the ice at this point But over the area in the image below. 2011-13 images are not available. 2014 had early melt and more snow loss than this year but not the albedo crusher over the ice. This can still be reversed. Like if it would get cold and snow. However models not only show none of that. They show straight record to crushing record temps. The GFS has highs reaching 70F all the way to the shores of the arctic basin next week. If the current GFS pans out in 10 days there will be a very large pocket of warm SSTs like never observed in modern history. With a large part of the Beaufort/Chuchki already melt ponding

Even if we have a mega nino that heat will get spread around the Earth. The baseline will be Warmer. But the ocean will find an equilibrium through the trades coming back

There will be plenty of Ninas whether there is a supernino or not.

Looks like mother Earth needs her air conditioner fixed.