The_Global_Warmer

I'm surprised they ever went above 10-13. That probably is time sensitive and doesn't count what's already fallen tho.

Looks like drizzle under the lighter returns. The warm layer is like 300ft deep at 32.5f. But ice nucleation and dendrite growth is definitely questionable at times.

The latest nam is unbelievable. Almost 2" of liquid in my backyard. At 7"+ now

The airport always does. The NWS headquarters in Weldon. springs about 25 miles NW of downtown will have a legit total.

St Louis is a disaster. I am 15 miles ESE of downtown. We have 5-6" so far with heavy snow unfolding. Only a small break later on before it ramps up again

Pwats are ridiculously high I think the Northern edge might be underdone

Every single model has the biggest widespread snow event in St. Louis this decade. Rivaling 1-4-14. Pinch me.

It's not that. Just massive changes over SE Canada in the mid levels. Like pretty amazing how big for 5 days out.

The GEFS looks good for a major storm at the end.

The GEFS is gearing up for a major winter event over the Eastern conus on this run towards the end. Nice look

Because there is always the snow weenie hope that something in the medium range onwards will abruptly change in the digital snow fantasy land.

After this next soaker that soaks 80% of this entire site with rain. Things look to dry out dramatically. You guys might catch a clipper tho. Hopefully because of your climo you don't get screwed with light rain if the system passes North of you. November was awesome over the Eastern 2/3rds. It's just really disheartening to scan the gfs and see literally nothing through the entire run.

Living 20 miles from St. Louis it's the exact same. We don't get the big storms you guys get. But our seasonal average is I'd identical to DC. This year from early November through the very start of December we had 16 days with a trace or more. Since then nothing. It wouldn't be uncommon to go into late February with nothing.

If the sub surface wasnt as weak. The equatorial winds have been great for bringing about strong full basin nino conditions.

Yeah. This is pretty freaking strong and vast. Stretching over a huge area. Its not only a slow down but a complete reversal over a large region. We can see going back into the summer nothing remotely close to that. The limiting factor is the sub surface is only moderately warm. Otherwise even one of these kind of wind reversal events would kick off a huge burst of surface warming.

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html

That's pretty amazing.

What the models show for early October is nothing short of Epic.

The models show what is probably unprecedented for this time of year. The refreeze will completely stop. Well it really hasnt even begun outside the CAA. But it will flatline easily for 10-14 days. I mean like zero growth.

Things will only escalate from here. Global temps will be near or even record warm again.

And that's what we call Gamechanger. 10-14 days of General conditions like that is all it takes to completely modify the subsurface. Doesn't mean it will all surface. But a huge warm blob will form if that pans out.

After day 5 the euro diverges from the gfs and cmc. The latter two have a scenario where the ESS, Chuchku region, and laptev all see tremendous ice loss for August. Throw the CAB into that as well. The euro has a more tamed version. Likely due to NPAC differences.

Anyways, here is the gfs forecast 24-hrs out and ssta from the Dutch. The axis of tremendous heat is wheeling towards the Arctic basin and NEGIS. This has recently dumped a lot of heat into the oceanic near surface layer.

That's because of interference from ice crystals in clouds. The sensor cant penetrate the interference. This is from the Germans. They are trying to get the EU, jaxa, nasa, the Indians, the Dutch, and the Chinese to help fund this massive satellite project to bring low frequency with little to no interference at a high resolution. It would Be the ultimate game changer. If you don't wish to take my word for it. Orh will confirm this. CIMR: a Game-Changer LAST UPDATED: JUNE 20, 2018 In February 2018, for an invited post at the EGU Cryospheric Science blog, Thomas Lavergne discussed how the Copernicus Imaging Microwave Radiometer (CIMR) could be a game-changer for operational monitoring of sea-ice. He wrote: Before I tell you what makes CIMR so special, we need a short introduction on what passive microwave instruments are, why we like them for observing sea ice, and how they work: One of a kind, the CIMR will focus on the low frequencies (6, 10, and 18 GHz), and fly an antenna big enough to ensure much better resolution than any of the passive microwave instruments we ever used before. This requires the antenna of CIMR to be substantially largerthan that of SSMIS (60cm diameter), MWI (75cm) or even AMSR2 (2.1m)! The AMSR-E instrument and its follower AMSR2 were game-changers 15 years ago, and still offer the best resolution today… but future operational models and polar applications will require better sea ice products all too soon. An exciting time opens for satellite-based observations of polar sea ice, as the pre-studies for CIMR are started by the European Space Agency this spring! Will industry take-up the challenge and build a big enough antenna for CIMR? Will CIMR be selected as EU’s future polar Copernicus mission? If “yes” to both, Europe will have a game-changer: high-resolution all-weather daily global accurate mapping of sea ice concentration.

Lastly cryosat was very foreboding of the Pacific collapse.