The_Global_Warmer

The forecast is favorable for ice loss on Pacific side the first part of the week. Before a massive negative dipole takes over. However unlike the traditional ice preserving reverse dipoles. This one is completely high pressure dominated. With the vortex over the CAA. The Atlantic front gets hit hard but THE area that will suffer the most is the Laptev region. With a very warm WWA fetch and a lot of sun right as the insolation drops below 400wm2 around the 5th. Its really a perfect situation to really smash the atlantic front and laptev from well inside the 80N mark. The ESS gets pretty solid sun and WAA. However mixing would be required more there since the surface fetch is over so much ice as well. The beaufort has a very defined area between ice that's toast and safe. Looks a lot more fun than a week ago. And yeah nzucker GIS has been very cool and snowy this summer. Almost zero days with any substantial ridge.

The heat currently being dumped into the far NE ATL is impressive. Thanks to a monster ridge and huge warm vortex. Whether it affects the ice or not remains to be seen

This melt season has been another clunker. But this is absurd. Modis also confirms this. The only explanation is the lack of regrowth the past two winters. There is almost no way any of that ice outside the darker purple areas is going to survive. And some of the purple regions will recede. I don't know what it will end like. On nevens forum most of us have been very vocal about this season being a top 10-7 finish. Well the past week a gigantic area that has received mostly cloudy or foggy conditions all summer has abruptly collapsed. Cryosat at the end of April showed this region being incredibly thin. The thicker ESS and Laptev regions have gotten hit hard. This is really amazing. Area and extent. Especially extent is about to plummet. Probably going to be in the 2015-2017 area at the end. A paradigm shift outside the melt season is clearly at hand.

Getting progressively warmer but a lot of meh

What the hell is going on up there

There is some serious melt happening well into the basin. The red line is my open water estimate by seasons end. The black circle is an area of enhanced melt obscured by clouds. The green circle is an area of lower albedo in the Southern CAB where a buoy shows strong bottom melt. This is near 79N.

Don't know about I don't know if that'll happen but it's definitely looking like a top three bottom finish. We'll just have to wait and see this pattern incoming is pretty warm all over except on the Greenland side

And there is a lot of heat already in the water With a major Ridge about to bring more solar heating and the Southerly flow along the Pacific side.

Ł Looks like the wrather is really pushing towards a top 3 finish So much warm open water coupled with: relentless sun. Land driven warmth. Favorable winds to drive compaction. So some excitement.

Boring. We are past that point where we need to learn about how to follow this since now all of us know what's what unless there's a record being threatened this is boring will probably end up maybe 3rd or 4th at the end of the year unless the last end of June going through July is just dipole-dipole. Maybe if things ended up just cold the rest of the summer it wouldn't be a top-5 bottom maybe probably not but maybe. With the cold season in the Arctic now being so warm unless that changes there's going to be no recovery even from where we are the question I'm getting rid of the summarized it's going to be that cold season becoming even less friendly for ice development and the right set of summertime weather conditions. Because if say around May 20th to early July. We had the number one warmest. You know most dipole perfect wind pattern on record we would probably get really close to having an ice-free summer. Because that would insure all the ice except for I mean three to four metres thick ice just north of Canada would go. The issue at hand dare is getting a sustainable dipole pattern for a hundred plus days. This is just a guess but by looking at some of the charts and mid July on during 2007 it looks to me like some of the high-pressure and higher heights were driven straight from the fact it the ice Albedo effect was so crushing over such a large part of the Arctic that summer. Heating of the lower atmosphere was much easier during the line August over ice then than it has been many years since you can get I'll be those down to the .4 range. But one thing that this summer has already done it has very thin ice and it has warm open large areas of water or limbs have constantly been pushing the water towards the main ice pack which we know is going to cause that water to go up underneath that ice and cripple it from the bottom. I'd also guess that the longer-lasting snowpack this past year has helped. Sent from my SM-G530T using Tapatalk

IUThe models show a massive ridge. The Euro is ending April with a massive full scale dipole anomaly on the NA side. The GFS also keeps the Pacific side way warm. Will see ice darkening from this and below normal ice growth

Thanks its good to be back.I

Compare to other years. The Pacific side is a joke. Going to take 2013 or 1996 weather to prevent a top 3. And that's not guaranteed. Nice dipole underway with ridiculous heights this week as well.

Lots of clearing on modis. The ice is wrecked so bad. That low concentration ice is the real deal.

The ice has been smoked. Now an absolutely filthy warm wind field is forming.Gonna end up in 2nd place

The entire Pacific side is going to melt out South of 80N.

GiS is getting smoked hardcore attm.

Cryosat versus piomas is pretty off over a large region of the Western CAB. We'll see how that goes.

Record broken

September 2nd 2016

Yeah totally nuts.

Damn. Luckily more seasonal conditions return soon http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=np&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2016&MONTH=04&FROM=1300&TO=1300&STNM=04360

Funny. It was well modeled up to a week out But seriously. This just happened almost a month earlier than the top 3 other times. Geezus

The freeze level over Southern GIS is currently at 2750M. Over Eastern GIS 3050M. That's freaking unbelievable. Lance MODIS shows vigorous melting is underway over the snow covered land areas along both sides upwards of 70N. And surface snow melt well into the interior upwards of 2000M along the SW side but way up there going from the S side to about 64N then NE from there. It's likely we see snow cover again over these areas but if we don't or only see very little it will have resulted in major preconditioning.

Just remarkable. Massive preconditioning