Hoth

Just brutal with the wind this morning. Short walks are the order of the day.

A couple flakes falling.

It's funny. If I had no access to weather models, I would think we were gonna snow. The sun has that hazy gossamer halo of high cloud around it that often presages storms. The satellite presentation and expanding baroclinic leaf is pretty wild, too. Real pity this thing couldn't swing up the coast. It would've taken a very solid winter into a higher echelon.

Seven cold miles on the books. Epic ice mustache at the end.

Don't worry. They're all at @weatherwiz house.

A whiff is a lot easier to digest when you've already got heavy snow cover and consistent subfreezing temps.

Just out of curiosity, could sparse data be affecting model outputs? How's the sampling in the source region for this thing?

Man that's a mauling for eastern areas.

Perhaps my memory is wrong, but didn’t the models struggle with convection and multiple lows before the Jan ‘18 storm? It was practically go time when they converged on the western low as dominant. Maybe this is something similar.

Well, bummer. On the flip side, a miss will save me tens of thousands in snow removal and flat roof clearing and ice dams. Always a silver lining.

I was gonna say, given Tip's description of this as perhaps unprecedented, they may not have much historical precedent to train from.

It wants to snow. This is my third day straight with snow in the air, which just doesn’t happen down here. This is coming. Whether it’s a humdrum affair or raging blizzard, who can say, but it’s gonna snow. Long live winter!

huh, flakes in the air. Wasn’t expecting that today. Definitely a deep winter vibe this week.

Thanks. That’s pretty much how I was picturing the process.

Does it usually set up where you have greater diffluence aloft?