It gets here and....thermals are an issue
ETA: We're to the left of the 0 line, but I'm pretty sure there's a warm layer and the freezing line is up in west central PA. But yeah, it's 225 hours so...
I think the issue with that is that Hurricanes are one solid unit. They don't have to rely on timing, and surrounding shortwaves to form a storm. I would think that makes things a ton easier for models. And remember, they are using the same models as we use for winter time also.