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Moonhowl

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Posts posted by Moonhowl

    2019 Mountains and Foothills Spring/Summer thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    On 4/3/2019 at 8:14 AM, Met1985 said:

    Not sure how big a threat it is but in about 10 days the Euro is showing a strong trough in the east with some type of system maybe.  Looking at the indices I think this has some merrit with the AO and the NAO finally going negative somewhat.  Something to look at and track possible. 

    Last year the AO and NAO went negative and IIRC a +PNA at the beginning of March and stayed that way through April.  All I remember was wall to wall below normal temperatures in April of last year.  I started to look at the data and the following were the temps the first 3 days of April 2018 at KAVL:

    • 4/1 – 75 F
    • 4/2 – 78 F
    • 4/3 – 76 F

    Goes to show I shouldn’t trust my memory.:)

    Not a fan of cold in April but since snow is so rare lately I wouldn’t mind seeing some in April as long as there is no deep freeze.
    • Like 1

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

    We are expected to get some heavy rainfall here in the SW mountains.  No surprise as we are continuing to run well above normal in precipitation this year alone. We are some 4 to 7 inches above normal already. 

    As of yesterday; Asheville is 2.5" of rain ahead of last year which was the wettest on record.  I've heard old timers speak of dry spells with stuff called dust that comes from mud.

    • Haha 2

    2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Cheeznado said:

    I know anything other than frozen precip gets crickets on this group,  but check out these 15 day precip totals for Blairsville, GA from the 06Z GEFS. Could be epic flooding.....

     

    That don't look good :(  Seems like flooding is becoming so frequent we are getting numb to it; I think the City of Asheville is considering giving up on the soccer fields at Azalea Park because they are getting flooded so often.  The big wet thread in summer of 2013 was pretty epic.

    Banter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    10 hours ago, Cheeznado said:

    This forum should be renamed American Winter Weather- it is amazing how posts dry up almost completely once the threat of snow/ice is over. I love snow as much as the next person but am interested in all types of weather....

    Well, warm weather does bring crickets:sun:

    • Like 1

    Banter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    3 hours ago, WxKnurd said:

    Officially a resident of Haywood County.  Always said I’d have a log home in the mountains one day and am proud to say I’m a log homeowner at 3350’ now, hard work still gets you what you want!

    Congrats!  Nice to have another member of the Pack in WNC.

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

    Until we can get a -NAO in winter expect more of the same. -EPO only works if its centered more east like 2014. This year it's too far west. We really need the NAO in the SE more than any other region. 

    Don't worry all the teleconnections will set up perfectly this year just the "in winter" part of it will be fail.  :frostymelt:

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    14 hours ago, jburns said:

    As much as I enjoy a good snowstorm I refuse to complain about today's weather. It was glorious.

    I am certainly enjoying it.  Last year in this neck of the woods the warm week in February was pretty much it for any extended warm weather until May.  Come mid-April when the wind is gusting to 40 mph and the snow flurries flying I will be wishing for February weather.

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Lookout said:

    Not much. 

    Funny though, i thought it wasn't supposed to be this crappy. 

     I have never nor do i now pay any attention to winter outlooks but it's hard to miss considering how much people talk about them....however,  I have to say i can't believe anyone pays attention to them.  I know a lot of people try their best and put a lot of work into them but regardless of how many big words they use, how many analogs, or how many indexes they come up with.....it's still no better than flipping a coin...indeed it seems to be worse than flipping a coin. Maybe one day someone will crack the code but given the amount of inherent chaos in the system i doubt it. 

    I have heard theoretical physicists claim if they can reconcile the theory of relatively and quantum theory they will have the answer to everything.  Well, if that is accomplished I want to see them use that information for a dead on accurate winter forecast for the southeast.

    Kind of looking cold and potential for frozen precip in NC the 2nd week in Feb to me per the GFS run I just looked at.  But I guess I didn't see what I saw.

     

    2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

    True, but then look at snow events like December where when storms come from the South, the difference between downtown and Fletcher was a few inches. All in all, I think it averages out. 

    I ended up with 3" out of the December storm; totals killed by sleet.  Not complaining because I like my trees in the upright position.  My wife and I drove a bit up Hwy 276 out of Pisgah Forest after the storm; was a bit stunned at the number of trees that came down.

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