Moonhowl

9 minutes ago, yotaman said:

We have decided to come home tomorrow from our trip, cutting it short by 2 days. Luckily the airline has allowed us to change our flight at no charge due to Dorian. Thursday is going to be busy since we have no food or gas for the generator. Hopefully it will either miss us big time or weaken as it comes up the coast and not be a big issue.

Good luck, sending big miss vibes your way.  At least we can be confident it isn't going to be hanging around very long.

26 minutes ago, fyrfyter said:

 

I thought about this as well. Just looking over the last few days, it seemed like 25-33% showed landfalls. That's a big problem considering any one of those ensemble runs could be correct.

 

I think this is a lot of the reason why so many of the states are clearing out there coasts. There is way too much uncertainty on this one. The forecast seems to change with each model run. If it were minor changes, I think they would have been more conservative on evacuations.

 

I heard at some point, one model spread was 70 miles in width.

No doubt it is stressing me out; I have family in Wilmington, NC and Raleigh, NC although not as worried about Raleigh.

Not going to bother to count but for Dorian, I wonder how many individual model runs posted are on the left side of the NHC cone of uncertainty vs. the right side...

Well, to keep it real, the last place in the world to come for an objective view of the true probability of landfall is a weather message board; I suppose it serves the purpose of compiling in one place all the worst case scenarios which certainly aren't beyond the realm of possibility.

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

We are expected to get some heavy rainfall here in the SW mountains.  No surprise as we are continuing to run well above normal in precipitation this year alone. We are some 4 to 7 inches above normal already. 

As of yesterday; Asheville is 2.5" of rain ahead of last year which was the wettest on record.  I've heard old timers speak of dry spells with stuff called dust that comes from mud.

10 hours ago, Cheeznado said:

This forum should be renamed American Winter Weather- it is amazing how posts dry up almost completely once the threat of snow/ice is over. I love snow as much as the next person but am interested in all types of weather....

Well, warm weather does bring crickets

3 hours ago, WxKnurd said:

Officially a resident of Haywood County.  Always said I’d have a log home in the mountains one day and am proud to say I’m a log homeowner at 3350’ now, hard work still gets you what you want!

Congrats!  Nice to have another member of the Pack in WNC.

11 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Holy crap, Greg Fishel is out at WRAL

Just saw that as well; what a bummer.

His parting statement can be found on the WRAL website here:

https://www.wral.com/greg-fishel-announcement/18190287/

17 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Until we can get a -NAO in winter expect more of the same. -EPO only works if its centered more east like 2014. This year it's too far west. We really need the NAO in the SE more than any other region. 

Don't worry all the teleconnections will set up perfectly this year just the "in winter" part of it will be fail. 

14 hours ago, jburns said:

As much as I enjoy a good snowstorm I refuse to complain about today's weather. It was glorious.

I am certainly enjoying it.  Last year in this neck of the woods the warm week in February was pretty much it for any extended warm weather until May.  Come mid-April when the wind is gusting to 40 mph and the snow flurries flying I will be wishing for February weather.

3 hours ago, Lookout said:

Not much. 

Funny though, i thought it wasn't supposed to be this crappy. 

 I have never nor do i now pay any attention to winter outlooks but it's hard to miss considering how much people talk about them....however,  I have to say i can't believe anyone pays attention to them.  I know a lot of people try their best and put a lot of work into them but regardless of how many big words they use, how many analogs, or how many indexes they come up with.....it's still no better than flipping a coin...indeed it seems to be worse than flipping a coin. Maybe one day someone will crack the code but given the amount of inherent chaos in the system i doubt it. 

I have heard theoretical physicists claim if they can reconcile the theory of relatively and quantum theory they will have the answer to everything.  Well, if that is accomplished I want to see them use that information for a dead on accurate winter forecast for the southeast.

Kind of looking cold and potential for frozen precip in NC the 2nd week in Feb to me per the GFS run I just looked at.  But I guess I didn't see what I saw.

53 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Yep same old same old it's 7 or 8 days for snow then it's another 7or 8 days for snow then another, we're going to run out of winter if something doesn't pop soon.  I can't believe we've gone the whole month of January and not had a decent storm to follow, or I should say we've had a couple to follow but they go poof.  I would have bet money we would have a good snow storm at least one in January and now it's looking like thru February 8 is not looking good.

Don't worry, the mountain folks will get their snow in April

12 hours ago, WarmNose said:

Well, 00z GFS was a bad start. You can stick a fork in 2019 if that look tries to verify. Shut the ski slopes down too. Pitiful 

Wolf Ridge is already shut down; however, didn't think it would be for the season...

Warm in this neck of the woods seems like the front door to the gulf has been left open and endless rain.  Warm and wet or cold and dry appear to be the two options.

4 hours ago, snowinnc said:

In our defense, Wake County is always on the dang snow line and we have been screwed over too much the last few years.  I love living in Raleigh but it’s painful for a snow lover!

You gotta make that epic drive to Roxboro on the far side of the magic snow line.

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 77.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

I have family in Raleigh and not totally out of the woods here.  I want no part of a hurricane and am not happy at all about the current track.  Given how grim some models are I will post the NHC key message on uncertainty and still hope for the best but of course folks need to be prepared for the worst:

The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased.  However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts.

2 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

This super light snow in North Central Wake County is for the birds. NWS said that we should have moderate snow now.  Wrong.  Why do I get my hopes up every time?

Somebody forget to deactivate the snow shield again

9 hours ago, JoshM said:

I just like to see how many ways we can fail.

It may be January but failure of the season is already awarded to RAH for their holy moly snow fail.

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

This isnt a traditional clipper by any stretch as modeled

Clipper bate

For you Pack fans; maybe the snow hole is a sign the Pack will be able to put the ball in the hole tonight and beat Notre Dame or maybe there is the same chance of that happening as snow in Raleigh; IDK.  GO PACK!

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Is there any progress at all on this thing filling in?  For real.

The hole looked to be shrinking on the radar loop I just looked at; hope you get something.

I grew up in Raleigh; used to snow back then.  Man, that snow hole is a sight to behold; my condolences to all the snow lovers in the Triangle area.

45 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

God the Panthers suck! Playing like the Cleveland Browns today! Uggggh

and Bucs take down New Orleans to add additional fail to the Panthers outing tonight.

4 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

See, this is what I mean.  Gottfried can recruit, but he isn't a good coach. He never has his teams prepared to play the big game.  They're a street ball team.  It's why we could have the number one recruiting class year after year and never be more than mediocre.  We don't improve mentally or fundamentally.

Being a little hard on Gott there; the epic snow in Raleigh got them off their game; the Pack will avenge this loss on Feb 15.