RTPGiants
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Everything posted by RTPGiants
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It's not really the location that I'm suspicious about. I'm sure it'll be off one way or another there, but NAM is spitting out like 1.5 inches of QPF over spots. No way....
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Yeah, but no other real support
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Go home NAM, you're drunk. Basically it keeps some sort of band over east central NC for hours...
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Backside hit is back on FV3
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The thing is, it pays for TV mets to be conservative. In our area things will be conservative say 90% of the time. So if you call low 100% of the time, you'll be right 90% of the time. The other 10% of the time you'll be forgiven. If you call high one time when it's not there, people will always remember that. Fishel gets to hang his hat on the 2000 storm where he was basically the only one to get it right, but late in his career (arguably) it's easy to just take the conservative road and be right most of the time. That's not really a criticism per se, it's just a way to maintain a steady state.
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Basically rain tomorrow afternoon through the night. A small pocket of snow from 2 AM until maybe noon, then back to rain. And that's that. Said temps to the north are too warm to worry him.
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WRAL is basically Cold Rain and wildremann wrapped into one. Not buying any guidance.
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Looks more like the 12z than the 18z early
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Congrats to those in the West. For those of us in the Central areas...time to find some firewood...
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Clown map on NAM is ridiculous...if we could somehow manage to keep it a degree cooler.
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People are going to like this run I think. Onset is later, but temps seem way better, and there's plenty of moisture being pulled in with a high right to the north. Seems like it might be a weenie FV-3 type run...
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Yeah NAM is slower with the SLP and has a better high modeled. I think timing wise this takes it closer to the globals though, right?
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This is going to be a heck of a NAM run. This puts nearly all the models into consensus, right? Is there still an outlier?
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A bit confused out to 36 on NAM. LP is north of previous run, but precip shield just runs into some sort of wall in mid NC. What's up with that? Looks like it might slide south?
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NAM also looks a bit faster in that precip in southern NC by noon tomorrow.
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Deep Thunder is an IBM model I think. I believe it's somehow related to Watson these days. Michael Ventrice posts it from time to time on Twitter. No idea the actual verification scores, but I feel it's been out in left field a few times on hurricanes.
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Where do people get the FV3 when TT is stuck?
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Then it shoots the LP off into the Atlantic. Going to be lower QPF overall.
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I know this is banter ... but isn't this the time we start hearing about "ground temps won't support accumulation"? Just trying to tick off my winters storm bingo card.
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Gonna be a bit of backside snow Monday through Tuesday with this run.
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Verbatim this is going to be really marginal on temps.
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Looks more like 6z GFS than 12z. Did we like that run?
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Yeah slower now and a bit further south. Possibly a little colder.
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GFS slowed back down to its previous run by 72. Looks nearly identical.
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18z GFS seems to start off south and faster through 54.
