RTPGiants

Someone is going to turn on NC's snow shield system. More seriously, it's just a timing thing. Happens to be Florence arrives as steering breaks down.

Looks to stall in about the spot where a bunch of Euro ensemble members stalled it. Maybe some agreement there finally. Everyone wants to know "when will it cross land", but the forecasts might need to evolve to something like "sits 50 miles offshore for a day".

At 42 it's way east

Here in lay the problem for pretty much every NHC forecast. You've basically hit on the head why NHC doesn't make wild prediction swings based on every model run. If you cry wolf too far in advance, then people will not take proper care the next time. If you're too conservative, then people won't have time to prepare. Unfortunately atmospheric prediction is still a challenge even in these days of advanced computer models. If you're a professor and in the end the Triangle area gets nothing, I hope you teach your students that it was better to over prepare than to under prepare. In the end it will have cost them and you money and time, but that's ok. In today's "everything right now" society, it's ok to take a pause out of your life for safety rather than play on the edge of the knife.

Anyone have precip totals from that Euro run?

Just curious if anyone took a look at the FV3 out to the end of the run. 3 separate landfalls after 2 separate regeneration events....heh...let's not do that.

Latest GFS is a little colder and a little slower with precip around the 26th. Still a miss, but closer.