RTPGiants

Good IR loop that seems to agree with a north move: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir We're about to have 1000 arguments over "moving" vs. "wobble" though.

GFS has been this or close to it for a while. NAM is somewhat similar. Seems that we're just tossing them though

Yeah, so GFS, NAM, CMC are perhaps trending a bit north. Euro isn't buying it. NHC went with what seems like extreme Euro. Tough to be a forecaster, but I'm a little more concerned as someone in the Triangle now.

Allan Huffman posted his forecast map about an hour ago and has Raleigh in the 3-6" of rain area. He didn't make a wind prediction, but if you were to go by forecasts and models, you'd say maybe gusts in the 40-50 mph range.

I know it's the NAM, but do we care at all that it seems to keep a bit more of a northerly run? It's shaping up less on 12z, but still north of global models. In theory we're inside its range...

Well to be fair to NHC, they only had the Euro guidance at 5. No track changes on intermediate advisories. Since then the GFS and future-GFS have sort of caved to Euro, so we'll see what they do at 11, but I'd expect a rather big change.

Someone is going to turn on NC's snow shield system. More seriously, it's just a timing thing. Happens to be Florence arrives as steering breaks down.

Looks to stall in about the spot where a bunch of Euro ensemble members stalled it. Maybe some agreement there finally. Everyone wants to know "when will it cross land", but the forecasts might need to evolve to something like "sits 50 miles offshore for a day".

At 42 it's way east

Here in lay the problem for pretty much every NHC forecast. You've basically hit on the head why NHC doesn't make wild prediction swings based on every model run. If you cry wolf too far in advance, then people will not take proper care the next time. If you're too conservative, then people won't have time to prepare. Unfortunately atmospheric prediction is still a challenge even in these days of advanced computer models. If you're a professor and in the end the Triangle area gets nothing, I hope you teach your students that it was better to over prepare than to under prepare. In the end it will have cost them and you money and time, but that's ok. In today's "everything right now" society, it's ok to take a pause out of your life for safety rather than play on the edge of the knife.

Anyone have precip totals from that Euro run?

Just curious if anyone took a look at the FV3 out to the end of the run. 3 separate landfalls after 2 separate regeneration events....heh...let's not do that.