Great Snow 1717

21 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

The $2800 which is straight up 4" loam and no wall would be for ~7000sqft, so the entire yard, not just around the oak. I probably could do the wall myself but limited time is part of problem, plus not 100% confident in doing it right with proper drainage, etc. What kind of "items" are you referring to?

The $4450 was not broken down, but includes the wall and backfill. The $3600 is for 5800sqft and includes anywhere from 1-4" loam and then hydroseed.

Never even thougtht about the death of the oak with the backfill. A few trees have died, mostly pines around our propoerty line from too much backfill when we built the house. I think the thought is they would taper the depth of the loam from ~4" at the base of the oak to as much as 36" to the edge of the wall. Of course, at the wall, not all will be loam; only the top 4".

A master craftsman is the best bet to do that type of wall BUT the trick is finding one. Near impossible now days in the world of quick buck contractors. I was referring to "items" such as different types of plants/flowers, rocks, and wall kits. YouTube is a great source for project ideas.

20 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

the tiller option was another consideration in combo with bringing in 4" loam. The landscape guys are pushing the rock wall because they believe that if we try and just put loam/grass around the oak, the grass will eventually die due to too much competition for nurtrients/water from the oak. The other concern is erosion again, althogh our lawn on the backside of house is much steeper and once the grass took hold there, there were never any erosion issues. I think most of it is due to the oak. Thought about cutting the oak down, but it's a nice tree, adds some character to the property and a bit of shade.

I'd keep the tree. Have you consider using a combination of plants that do not require a lot of water along with rocks and/or mulch. They are pushing the wall because they are going to make a boatload of money off of the wall.  Home Depot sells outdoor wall kits. I'm not sure if they would work for you in that area. There is a lot you can do that will not set you back thousands. Have fun and experiment a bit. 

4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

If that backfill includes much of the ground around that oak, I fear you can kiss it goodbye, though if you really want to keep it, you could either exclude it from the fill or build a dry well around it.  Most trees have the vast majority of their fine roots, the water-nutrient gatherers, within the top 12" of soil, and they have a tough time if those roots are suddenly 2' or more underground.  (Not that anybody asked)

That may possibly happen. I'd probably start by using a tiller to turn over the soil. And then add topsoil. And then overseed the area. Provided of course I wanted to have grass growing in that area. I'm not a big fan of hydroseeding. I know people who have hydroseeded their lawns and at first it looked great but over time(within a year) the lawns began to have issues

22 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

So we got one of two estimates to install retaining wall, backfill and repair remaining lawn damaged ares. See pic. To install 40' retaining wall using natural 3' high boulders, backfill with clay, sand, then loam, they want $4450. Seems high. This doesn't include adding any shrubs or plants in the area. To fix remaining lawn damaged areas outside of the backfilled area is another $3600. Last year, I got a quote from our excavator guy for $2800 to bring in 4" loam and cover existing grass. For another $1000, they would hydroseed. I was ready to spend ~$3500 max, but no way to afford $8000+.

 

Hi,

  Is the $2800 estimate for loam just for that area of your lawn? The area has potential to say the least. There is a lot that can be done with that area. Have you considered doing the project yourself? Home Depot and Lowes both sell plenty of items that would work in that area to make it look better. YouTube is a great resource for getting idea for home and garden projects.

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Uninstall first. 

It's a good thing that the public has someone such as yourself to prepare the populace for theses types of emergencies. Thank you for your service!

35 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The DIT index is very unstable so head down to the basements tonight and handcuff yourselves to your oil tanks. 

My house doesn't have oil tanks , can I handcuff myself to a couple of window ac units instead?

27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

TORs all over the region, complete chaos. Take shelter, now. 

When do you think the mandatory evacuation orders are going to be put into place?

As usual everyone has an agenda but him.

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I don't expect as strong of a ridge as 2014-15....which was insane; however, EPO will be key. PDO might be a worry forvwinter lovers. If it not at least positive some then not as much +PNA & a -NAO will be a necessity.

I agree with you on the ridge not being as strong as in 14-15.  Considering the state of affairs in the northern hemisphere and with the developing El Nino,  a -NAO is a must for this upcoming winter. 

25 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Following some of the longer term guidance I think we are in for a +1.5 to +3.5 meteorological fall (September, October, November). I just do not see anything suggesting a major pattern change to colder than average temperatures. Those that enjoy beach towns following tourist season should have a nice month to do so. I have not been to the beach in awhile, but with the warm SSTs and what not, I imagine the jellyfish must be having a glorious year. I'll never forget kneeboarding behind the jetski when suddenly one went up my swim suit and stung the crap out of my groin etc. Made sitting down painful for awhile. Tentacles and balls should never go together. 

I think your call of 1.5 - 3.5 is well within the realm of possibilities. I think the overall pattern is going to be very difficult to breakdown. For a while now it has had the "feel" of 15-16 but for different reasons. It has been a remarkable summer in the northern hemisphere. 

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The country’s in great shape financially, the summers been hot and humid .. An all timer even . Life is good folks 

And the recession/depression that is coming is going to be devastating for many. Do your homework and you'll learn that the vast majority of recessions have occurred when a republican  has been in office. It's just a matter of time until Trump's policies take down the economy. Perhaps Trump can sell CT to the Russians to help pay for the national debt....or to raise capital for the Wall of bullsh**

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

None of it makes sense. It never does. The slogans and catch phrases are cool though. Very similar to his idol, the President. 

Making Toolland great again

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We all have our fetishes though. Some are just so extreme it’s considered taboo. 

But the majority of people do not post endlessly about them.

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

looking at overnight ensemble runs, to me that is a rather low probability thru EOM.  upper level supports progressive flow trending rather zonal, so shear would likely keep anything out of the western atl or GOM from being able to gain much latitude.  Fishy storms if any

 

Nut 

Agree! 

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

You’re a weird dude.

He's gotten the super pattern that he has long wished for but what he has failed to give consideration to is the thought that the super pattern lingers well into the fall and perhaps the winter. Then he will not be writing "It's absolutely been awesome"....in time it is going to change to "It's been absolutely terrible, I do not understand why people want it to be warm in the fall and winter" 

14 hours ago, snowman21 said:

Fall is usually a torch going by the last couple of decades, so that's not really going out on a limb. According to my calculations, if you look at the five SNE first order sites, of the last 20 falls, 9 of them were torches (three month departures 1.5+), 14 of them above average (at least +0.3), and 3 below average. I think this may be a factor in hurting SNE fall foliage.

No doubt that the foliage is being hurt by the warmth in the fall. Another incoming this fall.

Going to be a torch fall and winter too...….

JB has posted his winter outlook and once again he is calling for a cold and snowy winter in the east. Although he does seem to be leaning towards a "warm" Dec. I find his temp outlook map for the winter to be suspect.

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You can just tell the sun is losing its oomph. Past 930am and still sitting at 72F at home despite mixed sun and clouds and a warm launching pad of 67F.

I agree. Summer is beginning to have that mid to late August feel to it. 

13 minutes ago, canderson said:

Or if we get a TS that sits over us (looks doubtful this year but man that'd be a massive problem). HBG has missed all the recent rain thankfully so the river here shouldn't be a problem this round. 

Last night on TWC they were discussing the implications of a tropical system hitting the east. And the main concern they had was because of all the rain that has fallen to date.

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Heard on the Portland, Oregon radio station that today will be their 29th. 90-degree day, tying their all-time record.

 

The RWTT has no BN period around here and elsewhere the next 3 months.   Looks like a solid +2F to +3F for us.   Hot finish to Aug.  and a hot Labor Day weekend.  We'll see.  Always safer to predict AN, since norms are not updated quickly enough to capture a moving target, so we are always comparing to out of date numbers.   1981-2010 has a midpoint that is 23 years old.  We could cut this to 15 years with annual updates.

I agree with your thoughts regarding always safer to predict AN, In a recent newsletter Larry Cosgrove mentioned something about the need to factor in global warming in to long range forecast. I've never been a fan of using the 30 year data subset. I think it would be better to compare the current to the entire set of data for a particular site. By doing so it will provide a much better representation of temp trends over a longer period of time. 

I'm also not a fan of using analog years in long term forecasting. And I think the use of analog years is one of the primary reasons why so many long range forecasts fail.

1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Don't forget about 1938 each hurricane season.

Yes of course, and the window AC talk that begins on 4/1 every year.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It just makes you wonder where these guys get their stuff? BN patterns, dews in 40’s, summer ending. I mean nothing shows anything like that unless they’re pinning hopes on day 10 op runs. It’s just mind boggling . We yore well into September 

Probably from the same place you get your stuff regarding an 1816 redux.

4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Absolutely beautiful in Provincetown. Let the jokes commence 

Orioles to the Cape League next summer???

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This Red Sox team is ridic!

I turn on the game in the first inning ...as an arcing bomb is sailing over the left field wall at Camden Yards and it's like ... home run fatigue.  There's just no mystery in their offense game to game. Not sure if that is a testament to a horrible pitching year, overall, ...ubiquitously around the league, or if they are that good.  But it's like a machine - almost smacks of the 2007 Patriots.  Hopefully it doesn't end that way.

Having said that, it seems romantic to assume the team with the best record - regardless of major sport - rarely gets to take the prom queen home. It's always the 3rd or 5th seed that wins it all in their respective playoff seasons.  Doesn't it seem that way?  I wonder why that is - ...heh, if it's even true.  But the team that scares the piss out of everyone with these season long monolithic win totals "seem" to make less of an impact in their respective playoffs. 

'Least in modern times...  I thought the Seattle Mariner's beat the Chicago Cups 1906 116 win total, with 116 .. a slightly more notable achievement due to the longer schedule?  Neither team one the World Series in 2001 and 1906 respectively.

It may just be a numbers game... The top 10 teams really are not that hugely different from one another in spite of their comparative win-loss columns. Which would mean...there are 9 possible winners against that 1 top earner...  Odds are, assuming reasonable evenness among that top ten, that one of the 9 will actually win the whole damn thing.  Seems logical...

The upshot there is that there is no mystery where the top seed is cursed to not win in the end - just means they have to be on their a-game like everyone else. 

 

So far the Sox season closely mirrors the season the Dodgers had in 2017. At one point the Dodgers were 91-36. They had a staggering run of 52-9 at one point in the season. At 91-36 it seemed like a lock that the Dodgers would win 115-120 games.....then the roofed caved in. The Dodgers lost 16 out of 17 games. No one could have predicted that stretch of losing. Included in that stretch was a 10 game losing streak which matched the franchise worst losing streak since moving to LA. The Dodgers righted the ship somewhat to finish with 104 wins. And they went on to play in the WS and lost to Houston.

What fate lies in store for the Sox?...well they may remain a hot team the rest of the way and break the all time record for wins in a season or they could stumble along the way to the finish line. Regardless of what happens the Sox are going to be under enormous pressure to win once the playoffs begin. And it is going to be interesting to see how the team performs in that white hot cauldron.

And you are right the lack of mystery in the game. All of the teams are being run by the stat geeks with a similar mindset. Jayson Werth recently  hammered(in an interview) the "super nerds " as he refers to them. Much like the NBA, MLB now features 1 style of play.