Great Snow 1717

3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

FWIW when I lived in By exit 42 on 495 (S Lawrence/N Andover) there were a few events ONE recent season where coastal front and or snow/ice/rain line had set up about 3 miles West of me and Methuen was on cold side.

you are certainly in a more favorable locale for some ice now , especially NW side (near 93)

You are correct. Sometimes the line wavers back and forth in the area. And in those situations sometimes there is a significant change in 1/4-1/2 mile. There have been numerous times when it has been a mix around exit 42 and by the time I got to exits 46/47 it would be snow or mostly snow.

18 hours ago, weathafella said:

Lol.....AST means every kid is standing in the dark in the AM waiting for the bus.  Not gonna happen.  They tried DST in the winter during the mid 70s and for this reason it was a disaster.

I was in hs that year. And you are correct it was a disaster. Rainy days were the worst because it would stay at least somewhat dark well into the morning. Teachers took to pulling down all of the shades  in classrooms to brighten them.  I hope there is never a repeat of year long DST.

19 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Noyes said a dozen confirmed TORs in New England this year...

I wonder if Noyes is incorrect on that total. His colleague Michael Page had a total of 12  New England tornadoes as of 8/5. 

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I bet more than that. There were 4 from last Tuesday's storm in Mass and RI...so 8+4 is 12 there, plus there were earlier ones in Mass. Not sure about ME,NH,VT

It's been quite the season to say the least! Perhaps a thread should be started to list them all. If my memory is serving me well NH had their 2nd earliest reported tornado back in early May.

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Noyes said a dozen confirmed TORs in New England this year...

Including spouts?

Eric Fisher just posted video of the spout.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Waterspout seen per steam ship authority.

How many does that make this year?

51 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I can’t remember a period where we had such  intense t-storms in non summer months. Going back to that beast in February two years ago 

Certainly it will make for an interesting study one day. Last week Matt Noyes said he thought it could be something that may be studied for years. 

8 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said:

Looks like it went right over Otis?

It will be interesting when damage reports roll in. 

51 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

^ You make good points. I'm amazed by the constant +NAO and think it may be indicative of a long term global shift. 

I think it will be interesting to look back in a few years on the NAO. 

18 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I'm just pulling the numbers from the NOAA site I linked. It is anomalies at 0-300m of depth for Jan 1979 to Sept 2018, for 100-180W. Someone kept referring to their own research about the subsurface predicting things very well, and I could never find the original, so this was my attempt at re-creating it.

There are other zones there that can be tested, but for Nino 3.4, 5S-5N, 120-170W, the 100-180W area seems like the best match. I'm not sure what you mean by matching to SSTA ground truth. The idea with the graph is that the ONI value IS essentially the subsurface, but in the future if that makes sense, pending of course any errors in the correlation which seem to relate to how warm the current surface is. I made ONI against 1951-2010 means to get rid of the noise in the anomalies from the thirty year periods which may have a different number of La Ninas or El Ninos that can be mistaken for "warming" or "cooling". 

The top subsurface matches in the 100-180W zone for 1979-2017 Septembers do match pretty well with the US temperature pattern this month, at least against highs for 1951-2010 which is what I use. 

When I say "it looks warmer" for the subsurface, this is what I mean - the area above the black line and between the yellow lines is the 100-180W subsurface in the link I gave. That entire area is almost completely full of warm anomalies, well up from where it was before in Aug/Sept. The migration of the warmth below the surface is also, at least on net, to the East. Which I why I have a hybrid El Nino, not a Modoki for winter in my forecast.

 

I do think your call of a hybrid El Nino is the correct one. Many people are banking on a Modoki El Nino to deliver a good winter but I'm not. 

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Our weather centre is concerned of an 80s type of winter, at least to start. 

I can already tell that some people are nervous lol

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Color me surprised on Oct 28th that winter wont arrive for 5 to 7 weeks. Then again it already arrived for many on this forum 

And to make it clear I am not expecting winter to begin on Oct 28th.  My post was summing up in a brief manner what Cosgrove wrote in his latest newsletter. Nothing more,nothing less. 

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Deal with it! Cosgrove out!

There is nothing to deal with on my end. I do not worry about the weather because I have no control over it. 

Larry Cosgrove isn't "sounding" all that optimistic about winter arriving any time soon in the east.

40 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Winds are roaring at 15mph from the NE, never seen anything like this.

Storm of the Century?

On ‎10‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 10:43 PM, griteater said:

To me it’s just another indicator of a legit El Niño.  The somewhat persistent low level westerly wind anomalies are impacting the ocean via the west to east surface current. The warmest water (not anomalies) is always to the west, so any west to east current is indicative of warming in the nino regions.

I agree. I do not think some people are taking that into account when they are looking ahead to winter. 

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I want the Ryobi ride on mower but the wife is mad at me that I ran over a big rock yesterday which destroyed the gas mower. So when I asked her we need to spend $2600 on the Ryobi next spring, she asked if she could flush $2600 down the toilet right now. It wasn’t my fault I was cutting the lawn in the dark. It had to get done.

Check Craigslist for used mowers. This is an excellent time of the year to pick up a mower on the cheap side. Three years ago I purchased a mower for $30 and it still runs great. All of my yard tools are from yard sales. Estate sales are a great way to find almost any type of yard tool.

19 hours ago, dendrite said:

I think you’d want straw...not hay.

That's what I meant lol 

9 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

I find that I start having humidity issues.  I have a lot of wood work and in the spring I generally turn on the A/C to dry things out and in the fall I'll get the same effect if I let it stay too cool too long.  I don't mind the temps as the house heats up easily with full sun but it will be chilly on the same day with clouds and I need the heat.  It is good though to make sure things are all working before you really need them.

I like to make sure the furnace is working well because of the furnace protection plan. Being a member of the plan also means being put on a priority list in case repairs are needed. I think the longest we have had to wait is 4 hours for someone to arrive. The plan has been a godsend a few times during cold stretches during the winter. I also have a few space heaters on hand just in case there is an issue with the furnace.  The space heaters do a good job of providing heat while waiting for a repairman to arrive. 

16 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Heat?  Heat is a Thanksgiving treat.

The temp was 57 in the house this morning. I think the latest I've made it without heat is around 10/20.  I wish I could not put the heat on until Thanksgiving but the house would be in the upper 40's low 50's. And that makes it very uncomfortable.

On ‎10‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 7:04 PM, Lava Rock said:

Hoping the cold coming doesn't kill the new seed. No sprouts yet.

 

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

 

Just a thought but perhaps you can use hay to help keep the ground warm and to retain moisture. I've used plastic trash bags as this time of year to help grass grow in bare spots. I first put new soil down,seed, water, then I cover the area with trash bags. Usually I see sprouts within a few days. 

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

37 for the low today.   I’m a wimp....flipped the heat on Friday evening and covered compressor.  I’m switched to winter mode in my brain.

Nothing wrong with flipping the heat on a bit early. I turned the heat on this morning just to make sure the furnace was running fine. We have a furnace/ hot water heater protection plan that has come in handy. 

12 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm confused by the Euro.  Slows Mikey way down compared to 12Z.  Front comes through while the storm is way south.  I would have guessed it would have been a way SE solution but its not.  West of last run.  West enough it is slightly inside benchmark.  Strengthening too.  Pretty significant storm for SNE.  965mb.

Larry Cosgrove has some  interesting comments in his latest newsletter regarding a potential storm.