JC-CT

mid week?

awesome

yeah, just realized, one includes overnight (storm total) and one is new from 7am on. they are both super aggressive for west of 395

You are correct, they are different time frames. I think they are both quite weenie-ish

I just don't think you can say "with blocking it should go west or should go east" because it all depends on location of the block and how it interplays with the pacific ridge/eastern trough. Really, the best you can say about a strong NAO block is that it's probably not cutting over buffalo.

looks like the slp is racing northeast

6" about 30 minutes ago. snow growth still pathetic. grains upon grains

people seem obsessed with the atlantic here. the pacific drove this show.

True, but Quebec should probably have its own subforum

NEW RULE: New Jersey low or piss off fk the gulf stream

ah. much better.

nah, it took a minute for me too. the map was screwy with the labels

You left some of it out

That's been the story down here too (seems like with the orientation, we are kind of band buddies for this one). Anything west of the 395 band has been poor snow growth. If that picks up, maybe some quick damage can be done.

Seems like they like the soundings for good snow growth this afternoon

00z models have trended slightly farther west with qpf and slightly heavier as well. Given storm intensity and rapid amplification along with mid level low track over or just east of the eastern MA coast, this trend seems reasonable. Very strong jet dynamics which includes a dual upper level jet streak, combined with a moist/cold NE conveyor belt up to 80 kt off the Atlantic into SNE, will provide a firehose of abundant moisture, supporting a period of very heavy snowfall from approximately 9 am to 4 pm. In addition, as dry slot approaches eastern MA and RI this afternoon, model soundings indicate a potential moist absolute unstable layer (MAUL) in this area. This seems reasonable as approaching dry slot will help steepen mid level lapse rates. All of the attributes listed above support intense snowfall rates of 2-4" per hour at times, along with thundersnow. Also, model/BUFKIT time sections indicate the bulk of the lift is occurring in the snow growth region later this morning and afternoon. This will yield SLR of 15-20 to 1. Therefore, an upward trend in qpf, a shift slightly farther west and heavy snow bands with high SLR, have resulted in slightly higher snow totals from previous forecast, and slightly shifted west. Heaviest snow (near record snow possible) will occur across RI into the Worcester Hills, with 18-24" likely. In eastern MA, 24-30" is likely. These higher totals in RI and the Worcester Hills will hinge on mesoscale banding pivoting westward from eastern MA into RI & the Worcester Hills. These snow totals will be record or near record in many locations. In addition, strong NE winds will result in snow drifts up to 4 ft and possibly higher. Considerable blow and drifting along with near zero vsby at times, will result in very dangerous to impossible travel conditions late this morning and afternoon. In addition, with temps falling through the teens and WCI at or below zero, this will be a very dangerous situation for anyone becoming stranded on the roads. Hence, don`t venture out if at all possible because it could become a life-threatening situation. Snow totals will decrease westward across CT (especially CT River Valley westward) and west of the Worcester Hills in MA. Our snow totals in northwest MA may have to be adjusted downward, as some concern very cold/dry air advecting into that region (KAQW dew pt currently 2F) may overwhelm the boundary layer, resulting in less snowfall. Something we will be monitoring.

NWS sees something we don't

All in on the band pushing west another 30 miles

ledyard CT reported 14", that's so sick for them

box doubling down on the western fringe, interesting

Did you take a measurement at work yet? pretty difficult with the drifts

I picture you taking this photo while a perp is handcuffed lying on the ground and you've got one foot on their back lol

GFS is more aggressive with it than its little brother, fwiw

I havent measured yet, what do you have so far

Yeah, rarely (never?) does a forecast work out perfectly, so at least half the time it's a tick east.