wxman

14 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Hey gang, I was just in the NYC forum. Apparently some posters in CT are seeing flakes...in case anyone down here in the Philly burbs has any interest in what's happening in CT.

Seeing this, maybe I will stir the pot a little.  Quite honestly the best (though still not great nor accurate) explanation for the perimeter of this forum is that it covers the Mt. Holly NWS region.  OK, first, that's not accurate, this forum covers "PHL metro, South and Central NJ, Northern DE and South Central PA."  While this includes the Mt Holly area, the latter area also includes Sussex cty NJ and Carbon cty Pa.  That fact eliminates the justification for this forum based on the notion that it covers only the local weather of the people who object to merger.  Conversely. Mt. Holly covers Middlesex cty NJ while Upton NWS covers Union (the counties are right next to each other).  I've come to the conclusion that the objectors like a smaller group and/or like those who are still in this forum, and not so much the "NYC types."   That's OK I suppose but recognize it for what it is; it has little to do with local weather.  So to JTA66, ask yourself,  does a poster in Cape May cares that people in Lansdale are "seeing flakes"?  And, FWIW, I as well as many in the Mt. Holly region saw those same flakes last night. 

21 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Who is "you"?  I don't come here to get into silly arguments with people about what the models are claiming.  I mostly read, post obs and will add some interesting supporting info about what the weather is doing. I recently retired (almost 5 years ago) and fortunately now have more time to read through the posts here while working on my weather station (and data that I am gathering while configuring/tweaking the weewx app to have a local webpage displaying that data).  I actually follow tropical systems and on occasion have posted in that subforum during some of the biggies, although recently have been tracking remnants of systems that come through this area.

I think you might be mistaking the "quiet" posting without the knock-down drag out trolling, for "lack of interest".  If you believe that a raucous discussion is the only type that is "acceptable" then that is your opinion but I find it distracting when trying to absorb new info on how to approach forecasting. 

I'm just not getting what the problem is.  I know there were issues way in the past that apparently had to do with some moderators, and that caused a bunch of folks to go off and create a new site, but that has nothing to do with the people who continue to post and contribute here.  In any field, there will always be "differences of opinion" and I think the lay public would be shocked that this even happens in the science fields but it most certainly does (I was a chemist so I know arguments ensue about what certain data actually "means").

Oddly enough, the way the climatology is in this area based on how the jet stream ebbs and flows, we are often right under a flow that puts this area in marginal weather territory, with occasional spikes of extremes.  But it makes it inherently "different" and unique from other areas - particularly with the topography (e.g., the Piedmont vs the coastal plain), but then that also tends towards us having more "boring" weather.  There was a reason many centuries ago people settled in this area and that was because of a more stable, truly "temperate" weather pattern - particularly good for agriculture.

I don't have a problem with people from other subforums "popping in" - in fact during big events, they often do.  And I really haven't seen any rancor when they do come in and interact/contribute as events unfold.

As I posted elsewhere, if Randy and crew feel they want to further revise this site and consolidate the subforums, they are obviously going to do it regardless of what we think in some "poll", and will have their own reasons.  But to continue to come here and stir a pot is just non-productive.

I get your point of view, but to be clear no one posting here "stirred the pot" as the thread was started by a mod who raised the issue for reasons I think are obvious.  I think my final word on this will be this: for those looking for local obs (as you and others say) then one (or a few) ongoing threads for each locale within a larger, more vibrant forum makes more sense to me compared with what looks to me as a pretty slow (being kind here) forum  Peace. 

9 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Why is this brought up every year?  Is there some kind of boredom going on elsewhere that coming in here to insult how things are discussed becomes a "thing"?   It's just idiotic.  I pay a premium yearly membership to post and upload stuff here and enjoy my hobby and banter and grabbing links to all kinds of sites that I can peruse to participate in discussions. What chaps my hide is the abject trolling that goes on in here from people who seem intent on eliminating this group... and for what reason, I have no idea.  If anything, this is a place where at least the moderators don't have to continually spend all their time removing weenie and troll posts.

This group encompasses the Mt. Holly CWA.  NYC/SNE is not part of the Mt. Holly CWA and neither is the MA group.

H.A. no intention of "insulting" you or anyone.  You simply do not respect a differing point of view.  There are plenty of people who like things I find disgusting, and vice versa I'm sure.  You may pay a premium and love this place to death, but I hardly ever stop by and I'm sure you say that's great, why do I stick my nose in?  Well, simple, I want the owners of AMWX to know what I think and what may explain why this forum's participation is so low compared to surrounding areas and if they want to act, great, and if not that's cool too. What I find most surprising is that with viewership here so low, and the comments in this thread so one-sided (nearly everyone says they STRONGLY oppose merger)...almost 38% favor a merger.  Not everyone shares your view.  

7 hours ago, JTA66 said:

And judging the quality of a forum based on it's member size is a dreadful measure of a forum's value to those members who post here. And what information do you have access to that confirms the 63% in the poll above who don't want to merge are the vocal minority and NOT the vocal majority??

Look, you live in central Jersey, it's not a stretch for you to post in the NYC forum. But I don't see how the weather on Long Island, Newark, or Manhattan is of any interest to those of us posting from Reading, Wilmington, Cape May, Brandywine, etc.

And if 100 miles isn't that much of a difference, then merger NYC with the SNE forum and merge us with the Mid Atlantic, Two big forums with lots of members so everyone is happy 

At the risk of repeating myself you can make the same argument for the forum as it exists now.  What interest is there for a poster in Cape May to hear a poster from the Poconos...or even North Wales?  There was actually a time when forums were combined, that's the issue.  There was a lot of fighting by those who only cared how much snow they would get in their backyard.  That's not the primary purpose of these boards, IMO.  We can have a respectful disagreement about that.  I think it's not just a matter of geography that explains the small number of posters, this forum in particular seems to have vocal "IMBY" types, and that's reflected in the opinions against merger that have been expressed, and don't recoil when I say that, you said it:  "But I don't see how the weather on Long Island, Newark, or Manhattan is of any interest to those of us posting from Reading, Wilmington, Cape May, Brandywine, etc."  You freely admit that you mainly care about the weather in what you consider your specific area (whether or not your defined area is logical -- not quite sure what a poster in Cape May would find so interesting about weather in Reading).   I think AMWX is looking to increase participation and if so they might consider seeing how a merger would work, they need not cater to those who prefer to mingle only "with their own" or want a local forecast.  Again, I respect the differing opinions, but understand, we are only expressing our personal preferences.  It's up to AMWX to decide which opinions align with its objectives.  I think both cases have now been made.

10 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

I was w/Eastern since 2003 then American when it transferred. If you were one of earliest members of American (not saying you weren't) and only have 620 post in 11 years you haven't participated much... 

All you need to do is click on my name and you can see when I joined.  As for how often one posts, well that's a dreadful measure of one's utility to a forum.  In my case it amounts to about 56 posts per year, that's actually plenty.  As has been said wisely to many and perhaps most around these parts, "read more, post less."  But if you think number of posts is a useful metric then compare the 161K posts in this forum with the 1.3mm for NE; 771K for mid-atl; 669K for NYC.  There is something very wrong here, but as with any proposed change there will always be a vocal few who love things the way they are.  That is you, and it's no shame, but it is what it is.  You think this forum is fine the way it is when so many have obviously already left.  The mods should not let the vocal few kill this forum.  Make the change and see how it goes, IMHO.

8 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Yes, I think all of us would be happier if we had some red taggers posting in our forum. Unfortunately they left several years ago and went to the other site. I don't see how merging us with the NYC forum solves that. I doubt there's a group of Philly mets out there thinking to themselves, "if only they closed the Philly forum and merged it with NYC, then I'd log in and discuss Philly weather". The solutions is to get Philly mets to participate here. How? I don't know.

Merging us with NYC would be like large corporation A acquiring smaller company B. After a few months or so, company B ceases to exist. Why the NYC forum? Why not the Mid Atlantic? Both regions are about 100 miles from my back yard. 

 

Any forum is going to cover an area of 100 miles, as does this forum in its current iteration, which features posters from Cape May to the Poconos.  The mid-atlantic forum, the NE forum and (to a bit lesser extent) the NYC forum are active and vibrant.  This forum is not (not being critical of those who post here), just the low membership and activity.  I'd try something different to see if both forums might benefit from a combination.  Hardly a revolutionary idea and easily reversed.  

10 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

What makes you think Mets want to do this? They don't get paid for their time and Mets in general post for their area. Sounds like YOU want a big Met family posting all over the regions when they don't. If a storm is approaching I'll read the Mid Atlantic forum and what the Mets and members are posting. Since we're in close proximity to them I'll use my brain,maps and other tools and come to some sort of conclusion. Once it approaches this region I'll start reading what Mets/members are posting in the subforum while looking at temps, maps and such then it unfolds and we post real time weather conditions.

I'll tell you right now the majority of people in this forum don't want to merge w/NY forum. Some NY forum members post down here which is cool but to merge and have the complete flock would be hell.

I take it you're new here w/limited post. Back in the day there was only one forum w/all regions included and it wasn't good. Separate regions is best. If I want to see what's going on in NY, I click on their subforum. If I want to see what's going on in Mid Atlantic, I click there. Or New England, I click there etc...      

 

Nah, I'm an old timer who's been on forums since before there was an internet as we know it.  Message boards first then eastern wx and then one of the earliest members on American, my current profile was entered in 2010.  It's pretty obvious that the few remaining posters in this forum prefer things the way they are, and that's why they are still here. But, no fair-minded weather hobbyist can look at this forum and say it's preferable in any meaningful way to say the New England forum, which covers a larger area then we would cover if this forum covered the stretch from PHL to NYC.  I would try and move towards that model rather then saying how great this forum is when it clearly is not at least to the many who have already voted with their feet.   

10 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

No offense but how hard is it to click other subforums? Their subforum (NY) is a mess and most of us here don't want to sort through their nonsense to find current conditions/forecast and such. I never go to the NY subforum but visit the Mid Atlantic/DC/Balt subforum quite frequently....again it's only a click away. 

It's not hard at all to click on other sub forums, that's not my point.  The New England forum is a good example of how a vibrant forum should be.  Let's say a storm is a week out (and let's face it, tracking is much of the fun of this hobby), all of us would benefit from the mets in the PHL forum posting in a string with the mets in the NYC forum and that hopefully would lead to discussions like they have in the NE forum, and real sense of community over time.  Clicking on separate forums does not give you that.  And, you can't justify separate forums based on distinct weather zones...as you have people from the Poconos posting here along with people from the Jersey shore.  My view is that the few remaining posters in the PHL forum like it this way (stands to reason, right) and the rest of us stop by once in a blue moon or not at all.  If I was king (and I'm not of course) I would have one forum covering roughly PHL to NYC and within that forum there could be separate threads for the PHL area, NYC area etc.  This is  how other sub forums are run, and compare the number of posters they have versus here. There is a reason for that.  The split was a mistake and now hard to correct because those that would want a merger stopped paying attention.  Again, just my opinion. 

I think a merger would be a very good thing as you need activity or people just lose interest. I'm almost always on the NYC forum because of the activity.  If I lived in South Jersey I probably would not bother with AMWX at all as this forum is just to quiet.  It is what it is, no offense.  There are a vocal few who want things as they are...and probably a whole bunch who stopped coming to the PHL board a long time ago.   To the person who wants a weather forecast for his backyard, this isn't the place and not the point of weather forum IMO.  Don't be a hater, just my opinion, nothing more.   

Just saying..........

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is on board with a snowy Monday 

The GFS on the NOAA page looks nothing like this.  What am I missing?

3.5" down with sleet/snow mix now.  Temp 32.

2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

You still all snow? I'm not at home right now, but my place is also in the Sourlands, straddling the county line between mercer and huntington. Based on radar it looks like the mix line is at my doorstep. 

Hanging on in the sourlands but a few pingers starting.  

2.75" down.  Temp 32.

4 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I don't really agree with this. I think you are overinflated that 27 inches on the Northeast ends. No doubt it might be more give or take here or there. But its not a 15/27. More along the lines of a 18/22 ish. Averages are REALLY hard to nail down. They can be skewed and subject to change. Miller A's yes, Northeast zones will do better probably. But that can be balanced out by a southern storm (when they use to happen). Or a storm like Jan 2000 that dry slotted the northeast. Even today could be an example of where the Northeast Part of that zone has a warm nose, and we don't down here.

Look at the original NWS forecast for yesterday's storm. Look where the precip is laid out. Its oriented exactly as I have laid out and you could continue that on down the corridor if you looked at LMX. This happened with every single storm this year. Where it looked even. Look Freehold 6, Wilmington 6. Results? Freehold 10 inches of snow, Wilmington 1/2 of sleet.

This isn't a "climo says otherwise". This is 100% a, we had horrible luck this year.

 

 

 

 

I don't agree.  The reason Freehold got 10" yesterday was prolific rates of precip.  It snowed there but at slower rates would have been sleet like Wilmington or my home well NW of Freehold where I got 3.5".  That area of NJ around Freehold and east (Monmouth cty) gets more and heavy precip in a number of winter storm set ups.  That's climo too.

3.5" final for round one.  temp 26

3.25" down. Mostly snow with few pingers in the lulls.  temp 24.

2.5" down.  temp. 23.  Moderate snow but still mostly fine flakes.

0.5" and 21 degrees.  Light to moderate snow but mostly fine flakes.

2.5" here.

9 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

About 6.5" new. Total pack about 13". Super bowl in an hour and enjoying an adult beverage. I'd say its a good day. 

What's in the cup, looks might tasty!?

8.8" storm total.  

8.5" down.  Temp. 31.

7.5" down.  Temp. 30.

7.5" down.  Temp. 30.