wxman

6" down. Temp 24.

Almost 5" now with goose feather snowflakes (RIP Charlie Daniels). 

4" OTG.  Temp 20.

5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I knew this would happen. I’m in dover nj right now. My best shot would be tomorrow during the break but I doubt it. Could you imagine if 00z euro and NAM give northeast Philly more than me out here? I swear im the biggest jinx in the world it makes absolutely no sense

In a "worse case" scenario Dover gets the same as NE PHL.  Odds would favor Dover getting more, stay put.  

3" down.  Temp 20. 

Heavy snow has commenced!

2" down with steady light snow.  21 degrees.

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah it looks like a half inch at least.

Pushing 1.5" now, I took the photo a while ago but I couldn't figure out how to shrink it so I could post, LOL, thank god for google.  

I was looking at that on radarscope, not sure why you're not snowing been snowing here for a while.

Solid inch down with steady light to almost moderate snow.  Temp 22.

Snow really picking up, bordering on moderate, happened quick.

Steady light snow now.  Driveway covered and lawn getting there.  Temp 24.

First tiny flakes now falling.  Let the games begin, and good luck to all!

Just now, HailMan06 said:

Sounds sexy but what's GOAT?

Greatest Of All Time!

To state the obvious (but why not) this has the potential to be one for the ages around here in central and northern NJ.  Impossible to say until all is said and done but looking at the consensus of the models, which keep getting better (for most), this could be a GOAT.  

It seems the big ones always start earlier than expected...the busts are always delayed.

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Yep this is a tri state area special this run but doesn’t mean it’s the final outcome 

It's a pretty wide spread of solutions relatively close in to game time.  Does Doylestown get 30" or 7"?  This is the kind of spread that one expects last Thursday at 12Z.

Very volatile and unstable situation.  Places in eastern Pa that got 2 feet plus on the RGEM get 7" on the NAM.

Why is it that even if all the models were showing a direct hit we would not be the least bit surprised of a shift a few hundred miles to screw us?  YES, I get what the models are showing and a miss makes perfect sense at this time, but the models aren't close to perfect at this range and enough of a shift could still happen that gets us into the good snows.  Could also miss further south or develop too late, but this will hold my interest until at least the 00z runs tomorrow. 

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You will need much more than a 100 mile change to make this work.

Well, if you take the GFS as depicted at hr 126 and move the features NW by 100 miles then much of central NJ would be into significant snow.  What's "much more"?  If we move those features NW by 200 miles we'd be looking at P-type issues.   Anyway, I would feel no more confident in a snowstorm next Friday even if the GFS showed exactly the right setup at this range.  

Just now, bluewave said:

120 hrs isn’t going to fix the suppression problem.

No, but the modeling could EASILY adjusted the latitude of the key players 100 miles or more in that timeframe, and that's all it would take and then some.  By 2pm the euro could show a nice hit and the GFS nothing a few hours later.  There is a nice storm signal and that's really all that's important at this point.  

"caved"? This is out over 120 hrs.  

snowing here at 33 ground is white.

Hard to measure and compacted down but total OTG is 5.5" with steady light snow still falling.  24 degrees.