wxman

Flipped to snow at 7:30am.  Temp 34.

Moderate snow just broke out here at 8:57am.  34 degrees,

Got 1.3" before the changeover.  Wet snow shower now in progress. 35 degrees.

5 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

The Coastal Front is set up from the Richmond area to near Dover, DE to about 10 miles NW of Atlantic City and then up along and west of the Garden State Pkwy along the Jersey shore and just south of the south shore of LI.   This is the leading edge of the warm air at the surface that the powerful 850mb jet is going to force up to the north and west and change everyone over to rain (if you don’t start as rain). In the case of the Poconos and the I84 corridor this would be sleet and freezing rain.  This is situated as projected by the models at this time.

Let us dream..............

Steady very light snow.  Temp 24.

It definitely seems the writing is on the wall with this one, but we are still talking about a storm 3 full days away...and the interactions that screw us come into play later in that range.  A lot could still change for the better.  Low probability but far from no chance. 

13 minutes ago, wxman said:

If this thing were headed out to sea and we were relying on some complex interaction to suck it back to us it would never happen no matter what any model said.  There was a situation years ago now, I think a March storm, where that was the set up.  All the models said it would happen, and it didn't at least at our latitude.  Predicted big snows ended up a few inches of mess.

Checked my archives, the above refers to March 4-6 2001.  Biggest bust I can recall, 1 to 2 feet had been forecast.  This was from the winter storm discussion, only problem is the storm was not captured, it scooted right by our latitude:

LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR NEW ORLEANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL

MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF OF 

THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AROUND THE VIRGINIA CAPES ON MONDAY MORNING.

THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT REMAINS OVER THE 

COASTAL WATERS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  

THE STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA ON 

ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

If this thing were headed out to sea and we were relying on some complex interaction to suck it back to us it would never happen no matter what any model said.  There was a situation years ago now, I think a March storm, where that was the set up.  All the models said it would happen, and it didn't at least at our latitude.  Predicted big snows ended up a few inches of mess.

1 minute ago, hazwoper said:

HA!  Yeah, but with it located further west it helps to push it south for a longer period and could keep it from heading north till further east

Climo also favors up or off the coast versus through central PA.

56 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

A part of me still thinks this could miss SE/OTS, very odd set-up, odd possible tracks/solutions, and huge model disagreement

Me too, if you look at most of the guidance out to 84 including 12z NAM you either think OTS or blizzard for us.  No way a cutter.

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pretty straightforward for us actually. This strongly favors a rain event for people near the coast and a mix or mix to rain inland. We need for the Op runs to be a huge error at this point or a major trend east starting today. It’s unfortunate but it’s what it is. 

Can't deny this based on the models...but decades spent on this hobby tells me that what the models are showing is pretty unusual.  Definitely can happen but when you see the placement of the storm in the SE that screams major winter storm for us.  Then the GEFS losing all its western member with even an east lean now suggests potentially good times 3-4 days out, plus the euro has definitely lost at least a bit of it's shine.

Looking at the US models this morning hour by hour I thought this thing might slide east, a miss, until later in the runs.  Then looking at the GEFS we see a BM track with the western members now gone.  I don't know what to think at this point.  

3 minutes ago, North and West said:

Anyone else (who’s old enough) getting March 1993 vibes?

Not saying that it’s anywhere near that magnitude, but the inland track and major storm signal.

I am and this is brings to mind the fact that most of the "greats" were well-modeled several days out.  Not saying we're doomed on this one as shoving this thing east just enough to give us a big snow is well with the envelope of a well-modeled storm 5 days out.
 

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

They seem dead but our subforum has split into like 5 different forums over the years.   It's really a shame.  

Agree, as you know from my posts in the PHL forum. 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Navgem is out to sea

In that case take a blend of the models, LOL!

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The First Blizzard of 2022 around January 20th

 

lock it up!

5.5" here OTG.  26 degrees.

5.5" final here.

5.25" OTG 

4" down at 5am.  Heavy snow.  

12 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I thought the above was your "final word" but apparently not.

Philadelphia is the 2nd largest city by population on the east coast.  Full stop.

Enough of the bullshit.

How does this support your position in any respect?  "2nd largest city" yet among the fewest posters compared with other forums on the "east coast"? And, don't get "hung" up when I mention size, that's not really the issue, the issue is that most of the time outside of impending or ongoing snowstorms, there are literally a handful of posters (again, being kind) and crickets.  That may be fine by you, but up to AMWX to decide if it's what's best for its business.  

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Bingo!....you guys have it good.    Our 'sub'forum extends almost 1700 miles from northern MN to southern KY.  It includes Chicago, Milwaukee, Indy, Cleveland, Cincy, Louisville, Detroit, the U.P., DesMoines and various Lake effect hot spots.    We've managed to keep things somewhat under control but there are still times that the general storm threads can start to feel like the old days of Eastern when DC, Boston, and Columbus were all tracking the same storm and the threads turned into a dumpster fire.   

We've had this same question come up several times.  We've band-aided the issue by breaking off separate pinned threads that are more localized, but then you run into having to decide which thread to post in as threats evolve.    

 

What these guys here are arguing amounts to arguing that Peoria and Chicago should each have their own forums.  

2 hours ago, JTA66 said:

But is does have to do with local weather, at least for me it does. Most weather systems approach from the west, south or southwest. If a line of severe storms is approaching, I like to read obs from RedSky, CoolHandMike, MattinPA to get an idea of what's headed my way. If the line fizzles, I can lament with Birds since we only live a few miles apart. If it's a winter storm, I like hearing from Kamu, Agnes or Kevin Reilly to get an idea of how long the virga may last or how quickly the changeover line is approaching.

In this sense, weather obs from the NYC forum are of little value to me -- these systems have already moved through my backyard. And as we say around here, this is very much a backyard sport.

Anyway, you know my views and I know yours. As Agnes said, ultimately it's up the the administrators here how they want to run their site.

Fair enough...but your exact reasoning would want me and countless others to read your posts to understand my/their weather.  Whether doing so is best done jumping from forum to forum is the issue, and I just think it's not.   I could be wrong about this but I would think that even PHL and NYC combined it would still be one of the smaller(est) forums in terms of geography.  Just makes sense to me given the relative lack of activity here, and even NYC to a lesser degree.

14 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Hey gang, I was just in the NYC forum. Apparently some posters in CT are seeing flakes...in case anyone down here in the Philly burbs has any interest in what's happening in CT.

Seeing this, maybe I will stir the pot a little.  Quite honestly the best (though still not great nor accurate) explanation for the perimeter of this forum is that it covers the Mt. Holly NWS region.  OK, first, that's not accurate, this forum covers "PHL metro, South and Central NJ, Northern DE and South Central PA."  While this includes the Mt Holly area, the latter area also includes Sussex cty NJ and Carbon cty Pa.  That fact eliminates the justification for this forum based on the notion that it covers only the local weather of the people who object to merger.  Conversely. Mt. Holly covers Middlesex cty NJ while Upton NWS covers Union (the counties are right next to each other).  I've come to the conclusion that the objectors like a smaller group and/or like those who are still in this forum, and not so much the "NYC types."   That's OK I suppose but recognize it for what it is; it has little to do with local weather.  So to JTA66, ask yourself,  does a poster in Cape May cares that people in Lansdale are "seeing flakes"?  And, FWIW, I as well as many in the Mt. Holly region saw those same flakes last night. 

21 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Who is "you"?  I don't come here to get into silly arguments with people about what the models are claiming.  I mostly read, post obs and will add some interesting supporting info about what the weather is doing. I recently retired (almost 5 years ago) and fortunately now have more time to read through the posts here while working on my weather station (and data that I am gathering while configuring/tweaking the weewx app to have a local webpage displaying that data).  I actually follow tropical systems and on occasion have posted in that subforum during some of the biggies, although recently have been tracking remnants of systems that come through this area.

I think you might be mistaking the "quiet" posting without the knock-down drag out trolling, for "lack of interest".  If you believe that a raucous discussion is the only type that is "acceptable" then that is your opinion but I find it distracting when trying to absorb new info on how to approach forecasting. 

I'm just not getting what the problem is.  I know there were issues way in the past that apparently had to do with some moderators, and that caused a bunch of folks to go off and create a new site, but that has nothing to do with the people who continue to post and contribute here.  In any field, there will always be "differences of opinion" and I think the lay public would be shocked that this even happens in the science fields but it most certainly does (I was a chemist so I know arguments ensue about what certain data actually "means").

Oddly enough, the way the climatology is in this area based on how the jet stream ebbs and flows, we are often right under a flow that puts this area in marginal weather territory, with occasional spikes of extremes.  But it makes it inherently "different" and unique from other areas - particularly with the topography (e.g., the Piedmont vs the coastal plain), but then that also tends towards us having more "boring" weather.  There was a reason many centuries ago people settled in this area and that was because of a more stable, truly "temperate" weather pattern - particularly good for agriculture.

I don't have a problem with people from other subforums "popping in" - in fact during big events, they often do.  And I really haven't seen any rancor when they do come in and interact/contribute as events unfold.

As I posted elsewhere, if Randy and crew feel they want to further revise this site and consolidate the subforums, they are obviously going to do it regardless of what we think in some "poll", and will have their own reasons.  But to continue to come here and stir a pot is just non-productive.

I get your point of view, but to be clear no one posting here "stirred the pot" as the thread was started by a mod who raised the issue for reasons I think are obvious.  I think my final word on this will be this: for those looking for local obs (as you and others say) then one (or a few) ongoing threads for each locale within a larger, more vibrant forum makes more sense to me compared with what looks to me as a pretty slow (being kind here) forum  Peace.