IWXwx
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Everything posted by IWXwx
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I was considering posting something about this after perusing the Euro, but didn't want to get flack from the optimists. Although we are approaching a "pattern change", the sensible weather past day 6 doesn't look that much different.
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We are finally going to get some typical January weather. A huge high pressure that just meanders through the subforum for several days delivering bone-chilling cold over a bare ground.
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It's a Hoosier/sbnwx85/Hillsdale/Michsnowfreak special. I want pics.
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I'll ride it hard and put it away wet based on that map. lol (That's an equestrian term, just in case you were going there). Seriously, as Hoosier alluded to, that's the first run that's depicted that scenario. I'm more interested in around day 7, where it's been hinting at something for a couple of runs.
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Maybe I should start a "Millennia Banter and Complaint" thread.
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The models when there's an impending pattern change
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FYP
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Lake Michigan will be lapping at your door
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The 12z Euro caved to the GFS, which literally takes the low right along the coast from Georgia to Maine, and also depicts a weak northern stream wave following it up through the Midwest.
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Mike at IND agrees with your thinking on a pattern change: "WHILE THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A TRANSIENT SHOT OF COLD AIR...IT LIKELY WILL SIGNAL THE FIRST STEP IN AN OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT THAT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ACTIVE AND COLDER CONDITIONS GOING FORWARDS TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH."
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You're right. I forgot about that. I was only looking at November. So if they're at 8.4", double digits by the end of the month is a no-brainer.
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When there are only nine and a half hours of daylight, the odds are already against us for daytime snow.
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FWA is off to a good start with 6.9". They should be comfortably into double figures by the end of the month, especially since it appears that whoever is measuring is liberal, as I am nearby and only have recorded 4.2", and I clear the board every six hours and when the snow ends, per protocol. It surprised me that ORD is sitting at only 3.7". It's unusual for Chicago to be behind us, but things will even out as time goes by.
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I haven't read into it, but anecdotally, Lakes Michigan and Huron water levels may just be fluctuating more wildly than in the past. For example, it was less than seven years ago (around January, 2013) Michigan/Huron hit their lowest level on record.
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The Let's Talk Winter thread should have something to say about the weekend system.
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It looks like Indystorm's old stomping grounds was ground zero for the Indiana portion of the storm/LES. That area was still stacking after those reports. ...ELKHART COUNTY... 1 SW GOSHEN 13.0 IN 0800 AM 11/12 41.57N/85.85W ELKHART 12.0 IN 0800 AM 11/12 41.69N/85.97W 3 WSW GOSHEN 10.6 IN 0700 AM 11/12 41.56N/85.89W
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Yeah, in mid-winter, a 2" snow would not warrant an Advisory. However, our NWS office has made it clear that they will always issue a WWA with the first snow that sticks to roads every due to the amnesia that drivers seem to experience every year.
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I wouldn't be too concerned temp-wise. FWA went from 40° to 30° like it saw a state trooper this morning.
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My daughter is supposed to drive from FWA to SBN tomorrow for business. After seeing the HRRR I told her proclaim trip cancel.
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That clipper keeps showing up. Nothing scientific, but I'm smelling over-performer just for the fluff factor if nothing else.
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Bone chilling, record-breaking cold in early November with bare ground. It's gonna be a long winter....
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I did something similar, but used Nov. 15th as the cutoff. After I did that, I thought to myself that the end of November would have been a better cutoff.
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You keep repeating yourself. Keep it up for about 4 more months.
