Jump to content

mitchnick

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    28,595

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    As good as that looks, la-la land day 10 looks real nice too. EDIT: on the Gem....sorry
  2. mitchnick
    Agree. Cansips doesn't have eastern US above normal precip kicking in until December. Nina background state is hard to shake free from after 1 year of La Nada followed by 3 years of Nina.
  3. mitchnick
    Yeah, Cansips September forecast is far from Niño-like.
  4. mitchnick
    It's probably fair to say that most of us want the Cansips winter forecast to be accurate. I don't know if anyone looked, but according to the Cansips, we're going to have to get through more dry weather for the next 3 months with September the worst before we reach the promised land. I mention this only in anticipation of prophetic cries of a failed oncoming winter.
  5. mitchnick
  6. mitchnick
    This is a pic of Codorus this afternoon from the sw side on Black Rock road. The green area up to the distant shoreline is normally under several feet of water. P.s. I don't know why it won't let you see the pic without downloading. 20230913_133849 (1).heic
  7. mitchnick
    A hair over .3" last night thanks to 1 thunderstorm cell.
  8. mitchnick
    "...except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms."
  9. mitchnick
    If the MJO can't make it much out of the COD with the development of the Niño, it's hard for me to believe it is going to stray very far from it once the Niño peaks come November/December.
  10. mitchnick
    We got about 2/3" over the weekend, so things are probably marginally ok. But Codorus is incredibly low. I've only been in the area for 4 years but I can't help but think we're getting near record low levels.
  11. mitchnick
    If we miss again tonight, our next shot isn't until Monday at the earliest.
  12. mitchnick
    That's certainly what the Euro Seasonal, Cansip, NMME (minus the Cfs), and JMA Seasonal (to a lesser extent than the others) are saying.
  13. mitchnick
    In other news, life's not fair! j/k Actually, I'm on the far western edge of that flood watch...I call bs imby. 12z run on the 3K NAM, which has done well lately as the stingyest model on qpf, gave me literally nothing. 18z puts me under a stripe of .75"+. It'll never happen. And if it did, I'll dump out most of the water in my gauge before measuring. I can't miss with this forecast.
  14. mitchnick
    Regarding the bolded portion of your post, until you can prove to a reasonable degree of scientic certainty, I don't think "probably" in an atmosphere as chaotic as Earth's is sufficient. Obviously, I don't expect you to do that here, but it would be necessary before your conclusion is proven correct.
  15. mitchnick
    September's updated JMA seasonal forecast, despite a slightly warmer ENSO, has come in cooler in the Southeast & Mid-Atlantic than the August forecast. Also, AN precip has expanded further north up the east coast. August forecast is on top and September's below August's.
  16. mitchnick
    That's the GFS. CFS says it's still coming fwiw.
  17. mitchnick
    It's ok. I'll get over it.
  18. mitchnick
    For June and July forecasts for September, even the CFS was around +1.8-1.9. Sorry Snowman .
  19. mitchnick
    July 1 POAMA forecast says 3.4 is +2.3C while reality was +1.55C. Even current forecast has 9/1 at +1.9C. Seems to start off wrong and that error gets magnified over time.
  20. mitchnick
    Yep. That's what happened. My mistake. EDIT: But as a comment, they don't start the observation on 9/1. It's 8/15 when it was a touch over +1.3.
  21. mitchnick
    I'm just west of that lihe now with only a few drops, but the southern end of the line is intensifying/expanding westward and now looks headed right for me. But these storms have been tricky with all the redevelopment as they move NE, so it can still miss me.
  22. mitchnick
    Typical for this summer, that area developed to my north by 5 miles and moved right up Rt.94. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-96-100-usa-rad
  23. mitchnick
    My treat.
  24. mitchnick
    Believe me brother, I'm with you on that. My July was about 1.25" or less and August had a couple of days with less than 1.5" and only some random showers for the month. I fear with this oddly evolving Niño we're all going to get screwed ala 72/73.
  25. mitchnick
    Your area has had the hot hand the last couple of days. Let me be the first to say Congrats.
×
×
  • Create New...