mitchnick

Tropical Tidbits and the regular Cfs site gives an average of the last 12 runs. The run on that site is just today's 12z.

Yeah. It says celsius, but no idea on the increments. I actually prefer the CFS forecast for February and March off that site. Take a look. Now that's a Niño on the CFS.

Here we go. New Cansips. 850 temps at or a littie below but surface temps a little above. Precip, I think, AN in the east. No 500mb maps unfortunately. https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/cansips_charts.asp

They're not great maps, as in not very helpful, but these are temp and precip probability maps from the updated Cansips. It does look to be a little cooler, but won't guarantee that. https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html

Geps too.

Gefs showing early signs of warming at 10mb over and north and nw of Japan.

Tick, tick, tick go the seconds before someone posts the November Cansips.

What does that guy know...he's just a kid!

Wow. You got treated like BWI usually does.

37.2 for a low coming after sunrise like Bubbler

Great post with 1 correction. BWI had around 39" of snow in 13/14. I assume you were referring to it when you said "little or snow across the area..."

If I recall correctly, Stormchaser Chuck's research showed we don't want a -NAO in October if we want one for the winter. It's not absolute, but odds favor a +NAO over D-F with a -NAO in October. @Stormchaserchuck1 Please correct me if I am wrong.

I haven't seen it posted before, so sorry if everyone has the link, but I've been using this Mesonet site for a while. When you zoom, it populates the map with more locations. It's centered in western PA, but once it stops loading you can move it around with 1 finger. I "X" out of the overlays, but that's up to you. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&center=39.4473115,-79.941553&density=1&zoom=7&basemap=OpenStreetMap&boundaries=true,false&obs_popup=true

Be sure to post pics everyone!

Indian summer.

Winds shifted to the north here.

You can dream longer by not looking at any of the new runs.

18z Gfs. 66hrs temp anomaly on top and 72 hrs on the bottom. Sweet!

Webcam

Skyline Drive looks to be at peak color. Time sensative pic attached along with link for future viewing. https://www.nps.gov/shen/learn/photosmultimedia/view_webcam.htm

Looks to me like N Hemisphere snow and ice have recovered to at least average, maybe above, if this graph is correct.

Even their maps look like they're in Japanese

I never have a problem with the supply lines, especially using sharkbites. But those drain lines, that aren't even under pressure, haunt me.

I've been out of action lately because I'm redoing my 2nd floor hall bath. I hired a guy to do a couple things I've never done before like ripping out a fiberglass tub and shower unit and setting a new tub. But I'm doing the rest like demo-ing the floors and walls, installing new ceramic floors and tub walls, painting, installing the new vanity with new fixtures and drains. That said, there's nothing I hate more than simple plumbing, as in installing new drains pipes from a new sink. I'll be d@mned if I can get that d@mn drain line connected to the bottom of the sink without that sob leaking ever so slightly. But I refuse to call my plumbing contractor back until I run out of 4 letter words. The only thing that has saved me is that one of the 2 sinks went in fine with no leaks while the other one is on the 3rd try. I have my fingers crossed that there's no water in the bucket tomorrow morning. Can't wait to refocus my life on more important things like model runs and high/low temperatures.

Are you still predicting a tri-monthly will reach +2 or are you saying that there will be a daily/weekly/monthly reading of +2?