mitchnick

Worlds apart? From what I've seen it's between strong between +1.6-1.9 vs. 2-2.3.

The boy who cried wolf is seriously on the doorsteps now. Seems like the last shot looking at projected trades.

Don't know, but it does say below the SSTA map: "These graphics are made with data from the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) & Coral Reef Watch datasets." https://cyclonicwx.com/sst.php

Every area is under +2C and dropping per link below, except for 4 which is rising slightly. Good place to be at this point imho. https://cyclonicwx.com/sst.php

And that's why it is warm with its forecast and will, therefore, be wrong with its eastern US forecast.

If it means anything, the JMA MJO forecasts since the summer have been very good, one of the best in fact from what I have seen. Hopefully, this Niño is in its wheelhouse.

Gefs likes it too.

Stupid lawyers. Once management realizes they don't need them thanks to AI, it's a Dios.

I'll take this as a legit pattern change to Niño on the Euro 12z. Qpf total thru 216 hrs.

Oz Gefs lost the storm potential, but 6z brought it back fwiw.

Maybe, but you have to admit this Niño has not progressed as so many expected.

Cold front came thru and mixed down the inversion. Tonight is cold again...mid 20's.

Nice shift west of anomalies underway.

GEFS seeing the potential now too.

Cfs has done pretty well with Enso ssta, but it's on its own with its D-F forecast on average. I say on average because it has had occasional runs looking more like the E/C/J forecast average. However, running 4x/day it comes up with all kinds of forecasts! Lol

Who said I take them seriously, and how do you define "seriously?" I said the JMA is similar to the Euro and Cansips, which it is. I just don't believe using a model's blown seasonal forecast from 5 years ago is a scientifically valid basis to throw out a current seasonal forecast. Moreover, all 3 seasonals mentioned are not far from a canonical moderate/strong Niño, so I don't believe it unreasonableto have a bit less skepticism about them this year. Otoh, if you think seasonal forecasts are useless, that's fine. They're certainly a cr@p shoot, but when there's a consensus among tte seasonal forecasts, they have my attention.

But it is very similar to Euro and Cansips, so it is at least confirmation of the others. Plus, that was 5 years ago. How long do you hold a bad forecast against any model? And have there been updates/improvements to the JMA over the past 5 years? I think you're being a bit picky if not just negative.

25.2 as my low with a current reading of 25.7. THV had a low of 21.

Best seasonal yet!

Odd. When I translated it, the phrase you have "in the latest ENFEN Report" came out as the "...EFEN Report."

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-quicklook

It would be nice to know what model Roundy is posting for the 850 wind anomalies since it does matter. It looks like he's using the CFS comparing it to the CFS 850 wind anomalies (in color) at the link below, but that's a guess. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

I made no forecast. It was an observation. Obviously, you missed the words "SO FAR."

Not only no effect, but it's going the wrong way so far. I still think the problem is the failure of strong westerlies to bust through east of the dateline.