mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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In my pre-event pity party I'm preparing for myself on Sunday if necessary, I was looking at modeling for next week. 6z Eps have over 1" of rain between the hours of 120-144, and it's not over. So at least it's comforting to know that by Wednesday morning, the ground will be brown and sogged regardless of whether 12" or 1.2" of snow falls over the weekend.
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When there's no hope on the globals.
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I saw the 10 day Euro and honestly thought the same thing. Then I remembered the forecasts for this weekend over the past 2 days...
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Looks like 6z Eps increased slightly snowfall south and east of Harrisburg. Not by much, but a little nonetheless. Beats a decrease!
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Well new Cansips has a great January. I just wish MR modeling would cooperate because they're showing nothing but lake cutters.
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Yep. We need either cold air or heavy rates from strong vertical velocities which will cool the column. Light precip will not do the trick. So when looking at modeling, I'm going right to qpf because anything under .9", maybe .8", will work. Mt. Holly Springs on north imho would probaby be all snow despite qpf, but that could be wrong in 24 hrs or less.
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If we don't stop the bleeding today, preferably reverse direction, I'm toast. I recall discussions at easternwx years ago that the reason for slow north drifts was because modeling incorrectly forecasted the strength of blocking/high pressure to our N/NE. If that was, in fact, the problem, they haven't fixed it yet.
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Icon at 69 hrs https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024010400&fh=69
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Rgem held imby thank God.
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I looked at Pivotal. Hmmmm....that's good news.
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Real test is up shortly with Rgem. Will it hold?
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Like I said, we need a couple of runs/cycles before Nam gets closer to being right. This was a good first step.
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Yep
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Nam ain't bad thru 69 hrs
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If the Nam corrects positively for us, it would probably take at least a couple runs.
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Heights are higher along the east coast, though there appears to be a better press from the confluence. Fwiw, Srefs are warm...real warm as in north of Harrisburg if you want more than 1".
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Since we're really talking only 25 miles as the crow flies and we're still just under 3 days away, that's easily doable. Moreover, with all 3 other globals saying otherwise, it's the Euro that needs the support.
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The day that my mood depended solely on the Euro are over. Like any good weenie, I want to look at every model for support. But if I can't get it from the Euro, so be it.
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I'm in the same accumulation level as 12z. Euro is warmest of all of them. Like I said earlier today, it's so over amplified I don't put much stock in it. I could be wrong, but we have 66 hrs to fret about it...and I plan on using every hour!
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18z euro a little better than 12z for some, mainly north and west.
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OK....Bubbler will do it.
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DON'T tell me how to live my life! j/k :p
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I fixed it! Lol
