mitchnick
-
Posts
28,639 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by mitchnick
-
It is, but it's moving faster than last night's run because there's another vort on its tail. Pick out which is the 12z run and which is the 0z without having to look at the time stamp. I bet you got it right.
-
You're an Orioles fan...you should be used to it!
-
Gets pushed along this run by trailing waive keeping totals more in the 6-10" vs. 10-14"
-
Should be a great run methinks
-
Getting pushed along faster. Another trough hot in its heals unlike 0z
-
Looks to take more western track first than 0z
-
Gunna be a little further north than 0z. High in Canada 2mb weaker and heights along the coast a bit higher.
-
Trough a little deeper this run v 0z at 102hrs
-
Heights are definitely a liitle higher along the coast this run to 6z.
-
Gotta get that 1/4 system past us before we can make any meaningful observations of trends over model runs.
-
I nominate everyone to chime in.
-
-
We're fine. Gefs
-
Ukie. Must be some mixing.
-
We're still in a time frame where the ensembles prevail. 0z Euro didn't make it past NYC iirc, but the ensembles had them doing fine.
-
And that's a scary thought.
-
Lol. Canadian the other way.
-
Gfs laughs at the Icon.
-
Further south this run maybe
-
Well, southern PA'ers that is. It'll come north and get with other modeling now.
-
Icon just crushed us.
-
Gotta drive to York that day for something. Oh well, might have to postpone.
-
Like just about all the systems since October, it's a big qpf producer thanks to the Niño. That's probably why I'm not too concerned at this point. Like you said, we seem to be getting breathing room from all directions. Bubbler, I agree a miss to the south is a concern, but it wouldn't be a total miss and ratios would make up for some of the lost qpf. I would be ecstatic with 6-10" plus mix or not after the past 3 years...but I'll gladly take more advertised now by most modeling .
-
The setup is a typical to my weenie eyes, but seems to be supported by all modeling, and strongly so by ensembles. Heck, even the Ukie gives most of us 12-15" fwiw lol. Until modeling folds, I'll assume it's a go and not worry about typical rules of thumb.
-
Chances of greater than 4" thru 144hrs on 6z Eps increased over 0z run at 150hrs too.
