mitchnick
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Some Euro January temp maps off WxBell courtesy MA forum. Top map is from the July forecast and bottom is August's. -
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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That range is .5-1C.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Some WB maps at this post. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Euro seasonal a little cooler in the MA and SE. This is for the NDJ period. Can't compare DJF because July's forecast ends at NDJ. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Based solely on the url, it looks like v5 (version 5?) is the lower number and v6 (version 6?) is the higher number. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yet, and this may have already been mentioned, most modeling shows the upcoming MJO having an affinity for the Maritime Continent. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Cfs2 has been hitting hard in October for a while. Considering how far away we are from October, it might be the biggest yet if correct. But is that signaling the big finale? Idk. Just wondering based on an apparent November forecast peak. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Oh, the "not me, it's you" defense. Lol If you call trying to get to the bottom line of a post/position an attack, I can't help you. But the bottom line is, you haven't denied my synopsis of your post/position because it's accurate. Which is fine. You can take whatever position you want. But clarity matters, that's all. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Oh, the need for a cheap shot can't escape you can it? You've shown your true colors. That was easy. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
So you think everything in law is black and white? You're kidding me right? The point you miss is one doesn’t need to say a lot to make a point. The past 2 or 3 months, you've been triggered every month with the updated seasonal forecasts because they haven't shown a furnace in the east. In essence, your warning is models have under forecasted the strength of ridges in the past which "could" be taken as guaranteed future results i.e. stronger ridges resulting in more heat. But no real forecast because we just don't know yet...but it still "could." That really is the sum and substance of all those posts the way I see it. Where am I wrong?
