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mitchnick

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  1. mitchnick
    Fwiw, Euro seasonal rainfall from both Copernicus and the Euro site have equatorial precip maxes in Enso 3/3.4 and not in Enso 1.2 DJF. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_rain?area=GLOB&base_time=202610010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202611010000 https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/c3s_seasonal/products/c3s_seasonal_spatial_mm_rain_1m?area=area08&base_time=202610010000&type=tsum&valid_time=202611010000
  2. mitchnick
    Webb uses a 24 hr period (forecast Days 14-15 no less) from 10/31-11/1 to establish a forecast for November and December? The pressure to always post something first on the internet must be brutal.
  3. mitchnick
    Well at least you can cozy up to an open window this winter with your favorite book.
  4. mitchnick
    Never heard of this guy. Working his own gig or what?
  5. mitchnick
    I will assume, unless you mention otherwise, the latest Euro forecast. What if the Euro or other models cool in November? Still warmer than the Euro?
  6. mitchnick
    Thanks for narrowing it down. And which model was that and which month's forecast?
  7. mitchnick
    I can't lose. If it's warmer, my nice, dirty carbon rich oil bill won't be so bad this year. If it's not, it'll snow. Of course, you didn't mention exactly where it's going to be warmer than seasonal modeling, nor did you mention which seasonal model. But even a stellar seasonal model forecast will be too cool in spots and too warm, so you really can't lose with that "forecast."
  8. mitchnick
    I never would have guessed. Lol
  9. mitchnick
    Sunshine back Nice rainbow too
  10. mitchnick
    Crushing now, but it's a thin line moving fast, so the western horizon is brightening fast.
  11. mitchnick
    Anyone notice that persistent block on the ensembles that's been hanging out over northern Russia? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026101612&fh=102 As for winter, I know it will be great imby.....the Dodgers lost!!!
  12. mitchnick
    You're always colder than modeling it seems. I'd say 30-31.
  13. mitchnick
    Not 1 seasonal at any time as far as I can recall had anything but a solid AN for December. The change, if it's coming, would be/start sometime in January.
  14. mitchnick
    3.5" imby
  15. mitchnick
    If you're practicing for winter early, trust me when I say you don't need the practice. Geez, at least wait until it can reasonably snow throughout the area, and that will likely be a while this year.
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