mitchnick

Trough was way too positive for our purposes.

Hope I'm wrong, but at 129hrs it just looks like a cold front. Maybe Euro is right with the 19th?

Comparing 5H anomalies 6z vs 0z, 0z looks better organized with the southern vort, but 6z has energy dropping south from the Great Lakes that wasn't there at 0z. That's a wild card.

You saw the stats on modeling that were posted. It's the worst. The problem is that when it shows something good, we make the mistake of wanting to believe this will be the time when it's right. Of course, it isn't. So now weenies in NE are us from last night for 6 hours until it pulls the rug on them like us.

At least you don't have much to lose.

6z Gfs hasn't given up on 15th/17th. Not huge but snow.

Yep. I'm thinking Eps reflecting the flatter "mess" of 18z. But we're far enough out to get too concerned. We do need to see 0z come back to a stronger, more consolidated vort imho.

Eps. 12z on top

12z on top, 18z below.

I hate to disagree. Too far west and rounder. I prefer 12z look. EDIT: Looks pretty different on the surface too.

My weenie prediction is yesterday's 6z bomb run was to portend how this system ends up as the 18z run from 120hrs out in 2/07 ended up being the red flag for that storm.

With the model runs today taken as a whole, it feels/seems like the way things look a week before a typical decent event...some hits and misses. Definitely a different vibe from the last week or more. As much as some may think I am dying to pi$$ on the parade, I'm actually pretty enthusiastic with what I'm seeing. A few more tweaks and we're there.

What happens in between those hours? Snowfall maps?

It's a start!

Mainly BN on Tropical Tidbits, but, as usual, no where near WB even considering WB is F and TT is Celsius. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2026010806&fh=168