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mitchnick

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  1. mitchnick
    Can't wait to see February's forecast next month.
  2. mitchnick
    The point I was making was that last year proved that it can be colder than what models progged. I don't give a rat's arse why. It really can be colder than what seasonal models show. Of course, it can be warmer too. But if the warmer than normal isn't in your back yard, do you care? I sure don't. All that said, I think most of us are here for the snow. 12/2015 was at least 10 degrees AN at BWI (my old stomping grounds), yet I had 29" in 1 storm the next month, the record snowfall at BWI. Did I care about December? I think you know the answer. The only concern over temps I have is that it can limit snowfall. But with the right pattern, AN temps in January and February can overcome them. And I know you're looking toward the January-March period as I am instead of met winter.
  3. mitchnick
    Since it hasn't happened and last winter in the east/NE ended up colder than progged, nothing's in the bag.
  4. mitchnick
    I should have mentioned as well, this hasn't been a textbook pre-Nino summer so far, though it appears to be heading that way now. Why should we expect a textbook Nino response this winter? Idk, just a thought. Plenty we don't know.
  5. mitchnick
    The fact that seasonal modeling continues to cool over the last 3 runs gives winter weenies hope.
  6. mitchnick
    Updated NMME hasn't caved on the generally cooler look with this month's run vs last like the Euro. Top 2 pics are DJF temps from last month and today. Bottom 2 are JFM same comparison. P.s. Note I said "generally." Some spots up to the NE not. Also, wet along the east coast and inland some. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=apcpna_multimonth_nmme&runtime=2026080800&fh=6
  7. mitchnick
    Actually, this statement isn't so outrageous as that map may suggest: "The Northeast may face one of the season’s most complicated winter patterns. Coastal communities could receive more rain or mixed precipitation, while inland areas may be hit by several rounds of heavy, wet snow—particularly during January and February. Small shifts in storm tracks and temperatures could make the difference between rain, sleet, freezing rain, and accumulating snow."
  8. mitchnick
    Some Euro January temp maps off WxBell courtesy MA forum. Top map is from the July forecast and bottom is August's.
  9. mitchnick
    NDJ and DJF mean sea level pressure anomalies off 8/1 Euro seasonal.
  10. mitchnick
    As did 850 temps in MA and SE.
  11. mitchnick
    Gotta' love the Aleutian Low at 5H.
  12. mitchnick
    That range is .5-1C.
  13. mitchnick
    Some WB maps at this post.
  14. mitchnick
    Here's the August DJF temp forecast.
  15. mitchnick
    5H is better this run too. DJF is looking a lot like Cfs2.
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