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mitchnick

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    Hanover, PA

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  1. mitchnick
    Depending on the model, no more than .5C in any 1 month in this area after cooling off around the same amount in August's forecasts. The Cfs2 was already much warmer at this time in 2023 as I previously posted. If we are getting a toaster oven that will seriously impact snowfall, we should know it beforehand as, imho, one of the seasonals will show it.
  2. mitchnick
    And the trend is our friend if you want it to keep rising.
  3. mitchnick
    Yep. None of the seasonals so far are a toaster oven.
  4. mitchnick
    -.83 today
  5. mitchnick
    No doubt it screwed up the beginning of the month. But there's a long way to go is really my point and all 3 ensembles are pointing to a change in the pattern. Fortunately, it's September and not DJ or F.
  6. mitchnick
    That's only the first 6 days of a 30-day month. It obviously didn't hold on to August's heat long enough. However, the changes are coming. Here are the 3 ensemble temp anomaly averages for the 5 days ending the 22nd/23rd of September. Needless to say, there's another 7 days in the month beyond this period to go into the mix. That's not to say the forecast will verify, because it may not. But I don't think using the first 6 days of the month for verification is predictive for a month.
  7. mitchnick
    I was watching Channel 7 DC 11pm weather segment (though I was living just south of BWI at the time but still watched DC wx forecasts along with Baltimore 's lol) and I noticed that the precip shield had expanded all the way into the WVA panhandle, which was a good 40 miles to my NW. And thought that was strange because the guy had just said the storm was to stay to our south. Then he said "hmmm, that precip is pretty far north for a miss" and I thought Game On Baby!!
  8. mitchnick
    Once the Niño starts to weaken, there should be a return of the sst warmth back west with the trade's influence increasing. Of course, it won't be overnight, which is why a weakening of the Niño sooner than later improves our chances of decent snowfall imho.
  9. mitchnick
    Seems like modeling has been putting the ridge SE of Hudson Bay for a while. You can see it in the monthly temp forecasts off the Cfs2 as well as the snowfall forecast off the Euro with reduced snow along the coast from NE down into NC. Cfs2 temps https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html
  10. mitchnick
    Hell, it has me at 2" under. That would be the most for me in 6 years. I'll take it.
  11. mitchnick
    Do you know exactly what that scale represents? Does -1 mean -1 inch a month or for the entire 3 month period? I would guess the entire period.
  12. mitchnick
    When you get older Chuck, you'll start to appreciate the near-dementia wisdom of age. Lol
  13. mitchnick
    I've never denied being the eternal optimist, fairly or unfairly. Lol
  14. mitchnick
    I'll take it in a heartbeat.
  15. mitchnick
    Really? Don't believe everything you read over in the main Enso thread. Lol The seasonal models will not nail every location. Here's the 9/25 forecast off the Cansips for 12/25-2/26. It has BWI +.5C, so say +1F. What happened at BWI? Every month was BN with an average for the 3 months of -3.7F. So it was too cold in Colorado, and who cares, and too warm where we live. P.s. I've already said in the other forum this winter will likely be AN. The question is, obviously, by how much.
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