mitchnick

Wish I had seen these before I made this post as I would have stuck them in with it. Stole them from my MA forum. Eps ensemble members for Christmas Day temps. Laughable.

And you probably thought it was always going to be that easy!

Larry, when you compare the last 3 days of the weeklies, they are struggling big time. I think we wait until closer to the end of the month and see if Chuck's research on the timing of cooling to stratosphere warmings comes to fruition. There's already a cool down for Friday that wasn't there a week ago, not to mention all the failed warmups over the last couple of months. To be clear, I'm not saying we won't see a break in the pattern from the extreme cold, just that it makes more sense to wait and see instead of relying on models with lousy skill and consistency that a winter-killing pattern is guaranteed.

As long as Canada stays at or BN, unlike many recent years, the east coast from Virginia north seems to have a shot, the further north being favored.

How about 2/14?

I don't disagree, but the use of emojis is out of control. If you disagree with someone, hit the disagree emoji. The fact is, every person in this forum qualifies as a weenie in some form or another, and there's nothing wrong with that. But to use the weenie or other emoji for the purpose of being disrespectful, dismissive, or just to take out your anger, needs to stop. Otherwise, we will continue to get the angst/anger against other posters imho.

Honestly, I don't base my thoughts strictly on these man-made indexes that are actually different depending on which site you use that comes up with the index numbers. Would I prefer a +PNA? Sure, but it can snow with something other than that with a well timed threat. And considering how many systems we saw come off the Pacific in the last 3 weeks, we'll have our chances, which is all we can hope for at any given time.

Odds of a favorable, general pattern may be against us in the east, but we get the bulk of our snows in meh patterns, and they are usually dirty storms (zr and/or ip). I'm of the opinion this winter will produce some moderate, at least, events.

Is Kemp Mill Records still around? They use to advertise a lot back in the 70's and 80's on DC101.

That's why I said "after New Years." But come January, average temps can produce, so I'mnot looking for BN temps.

Some things never change.

In keeping with typical medium/long range modeling, pattern changes are usually rushed by the models. My wawg (wild azz weenie guess) is that we see something close to those cold/snowy solutions advertisrd the last few days come to fruition not around Christmas, but after the New Year.

The market reacts to changes in model runs. I don't think they are any different than those on this board. And when it comes to commodity markets, it's more about getting ahead of consensus than the ultimate reality.

Last night's Euro was, but that's still 264hrs away, which is still too far away to be certain. Imho, it'll all come down to whether Christmas ends up being a day, more or less, before or after a cold frontal passage.

Definitely an elevation enhanced event as I'm only 600'.