mitchnick

End of the 6z Gefs, if correct, looks workable as it may be a bit wetter with marginal temps.

Geps may not be so bad and is probably the coolest of the 3 0z ensembles past the 12th. Gfs/Gefs is a cluster no doubt. As Chuck's pointed out, Eps ain't bad. I short, anything but what the Gfs/Gefs show. But at this point, any of the 3 is possible, or a combination, is possible. Iow, none of them is likely correct. Lol

About 1/2" up here in Hanover. Still light, unaccumulating snow falling.

No worries. 12z Euro has fresh Canadian air headed our way at the end of the run. Lol

Gfs suite has been adamant with bringing the cold back just before the 15th and was not as bullish on the period before/around the 10th as the Euro suite was. Frankly, as screwed up as the Euro suite has performed, I'm more inclined to go with the Gfs as crazy as it sounds. The Geps, at the end of its 0z run, was closer to the Gfs with well BN temps moving through the Midwest our way.

Idk if that trough out in the Atlantic on the far right of the screen is what's causing the SER or vice-versa. I would guess that unless it moves out, however, it will act like a 50-50 low and pump the heights over the east coast.

12z Eps run 500mb anomaly map Cape posted Monday evening on top for 0z 1/9. Last night's run of the Eps only 36 hours later on the bottom. More evidence the reliability of ensembles can match that of operationals.

I know. Hence "fantasy" snow.

GfsAI has another light to moderate fantasy snow near the end of the run.

They'll build back up...giving time for the SE Ridge to reform of course.

It will never end thanks to the SE Ridge. And we're up to almost January 15th.

Good luck. Other than a couple of quick pinches with the needles, you'll feel nothing. I say this confidently having had it done a few times and coming from a family of dentists.

Almost, but not yet. But that will come if we fail with snow. Trust me.

Got me pegged! Lol I'm just getting old and crusty.

I'm just tired of getting psyched for something good, only to turn out bad when, in retrospect, I could have seen it coming with a deeper dive. This effin' Niña is killing snow chances. And even if it does snow, they're weak, dry sauce. And the worse part is, we're stuck with it this winter.