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mitchnick

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    Hanover, PA

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  1. mitchnick
    Cansips was the only seasonal model showing any BN temps in the GL/east/NE. In that respect, it was, as you stated, the best in at least those areas. It was similar in 24/25 with a cooler forecast than other models. The Cfs2 and Euro have been boiler plate AN across the country the last 2 years. Speaking for myself, I don't care about the rest of the country or any other part of the world, fry or freeze.
  2. mitchnick
    Who cares
  3. mitchnick
    It didn't cave last year or the year before either fwiw, and did pretty well with the BN temps forecasts.
  4. mitchnick
    It hasn't happened yet! It's a forecast. Eps were too warm with the end of May forecast, soooo....
  5. mitchnick
    I sorta thought the whole discussion regarding Enso was how it effects weather. I don't think anybody really would care otherwise about equatorial Pacific temperatures outside of Pacific fishermen/shipping interests.
  6. mitchnick
    Looked good to me!
  7. mitchnick
    Looks like the Euro failed on this warm forecast.
  8. mitchnick
    @Stormchaserchuck1 How's the May NAO index off Newoundland looking so far if you don't mind me asking?
  9. mitchnick
    Had an inch up here in Hanover, with the next round underway. Nws has us totaling around 2" +/- thru Sunday. Since I hate mowing...this sux. But we do need the rain. The lake at Codoras State Park is at least 5' BN.
  10. mitchnick
    Hey, my alma mater! "In a 2023 paper, Robert Leamon of NASA and the University of Maryland (Baltimore County) made a striking prediction: The next El Niño would arrive in 2026." I was a Political Science major. They didn't have a met department, but I took every weather related Geography course they offered.
  11. mitchnick
    Speaking of down south, you're going to love that last few runs of the Cfs2, especially February.
  12. mitchnick
    We still don't know when it peaks or where residual warming/forcing resides as it decays. Those factors, IMHO, will determine whether the east and south have a chance at a big storm(s) in the second half of winter.
  13. mitchnick
    For the other parameters of the May Euro seasonal, go here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]} I'm not disappointed with what I'm seeing all things considered.
  14. mitchnick
    Don't know if anyone noticed, but since start of May FWIW, the Cfs2, which had been pretty AN for the winter, has backed down on the warmth quite a bit. Notwithstanding the usual long range Cfs2 caveats, it is, at least, a bit of a nod to the Cansips even if it still has a way to go. Here's a link to the latest 5H and surface temps starting at December. If you compare December and January to late April runs, you'll see what I mean. February's forecast just started showing up on May 1. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026050406&fh=7 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026050406&fh=7
  15. mitchnick
    The raw RONI and Cfs forecasts are usually way more extreme than the bias corrected, which often more accurate at this range. Bias corrected RONI still <2. I've never seen any of these posters mention the bias corrected.
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