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mitchnick

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  1. I wouldn't call it a head fake. I envision something more gradual with full tilt a month+ later than usual. But I could be wrong, soooo...
  2. In case you didn't experience or forgot what January, 1994 cold was like, enjoy this TWC rerun. You only hear music, but check out the forecasts and obs. Hard to believe we kept getting screwed with the zr and ip for most of the high precip storms.
  3. Traditionally, the Niño conditions do start to show themselves come September, but they really haven't shown themselves this summer yet either with cool temps. Though there have been/will be a few flashes of Nino, but not like usual. The -PDO and Niña base state have been hard to shake off. We're going to have to sit tight and wait until October or November.
  4. Cfs2 has been advertising a drop in the anomalies for about 8 days too, give or take, fwiw, before a resumption of warming and November peak.
  5. Another 1.15" last night. Ughh, the grass/weeds...
  6. This link has it from the Cfs2 around 2/3's down the page. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html There's also a link above the 850 forecast for additional info: https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/
  7. That's a crazy list of analog years with no rhyme or reason if you just consider Enso.
  8. Where? What period? F or C? Snowfall forecast? Not that details matter in a weather forecast.
  9. For someone allegedly concerned about cc, you and the rest of the worry warts sure seem to revel in the warmth. Lol
  10. What was their prediction at this point for last winter if you know?
  11. Just under 2" in 25 minutes and more to come.
  12. Crushed up here right now. Noah said he'd be back to get me, but he didn't have change for a 20.
  13. You haven't visited the Mid Atlantic lately, have you?
  14. It's been waxing and waning since February came into view. If you go to the actual Cfs2 site and check out the monthly forecasts, it's a little colder than what the TT site shows due to different time periods. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml
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