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mitchnick

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  1. mitchnick
    That's got to be exclusively 72/73 as DCA & BWI ended the winter with only 1-2" while parts of VA & NC had a record year.
  2. mitchnick
    I could be wrong, but I don't think the full link between Enso and climate was understood or established back then, or the ability to predict Enso states accurately. That might explain at least part of it.
  3. mitchnick
    The other site shows -.41 as of 9/10. Still a rise, but not as dramatic.
  4. mitchnick
    That 1 map sums up why 23/24 failed as a Niño imho.
  5. mitchnick
    It may not reach max forecast levels, but it's far from dying. There's another westerly wind burst coming in about a month, which will be the strongest if modeling is correct. After that passes it'll be November and we should have a decent idea about when it weakens and how fast. Probably won't be fast enough in my book unfortunately. Lol
  6. mitchnick
    Don't disagree, but more for my Mid Atlantic peeps who have suffered through enough snow falling within 500' asl with rain/mix at the surface. I witnessed it enough times living/working under or near flight paths near BWI to scar my weenie memory. Lol
  7. mitchnick
    September Copernicus (Euro related) DJF Monthly Temps & Precip
  8. mitchnick
    Monthly precip DJF
  9. mitchnick
    Monthly T2 DJF
  10. mitchnick
    A tug of war between higher temps vs. copious precip.
  11. mitchnick
    Except the 2 elephants in the room, 2/83 and 1/16, did make it up the coast, especially 2/83. Edit: Forgot 2/58 & 3/58. Up the coast as well.
  12. mitchnick
    Yep, it's been on the Cfs2 plot for a couple weeks and you can see the reduction of red later this month on this 850 anomaly pic before the mother of all WWB of this Niño hits mid to late October.
  13. mitchnick
    Maybe not, but it's off to a nice start on the 12 Gefs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026090912&fh=384
  14. mitchnick
    Meanwhile, for those planning on a fishing trip off Japan, PDO up to -.73 as of yesterday.
  15. mitchnick
    The odds of temps this winter averaging AN are high. Nothing is for certain in wx, so I wouldn't say it's a guarantee, but as close to one as you can probably get all things considered. December will likely suck for snow short of a fluke and, relative to average, will probably be the warmest. Beyond that, anything is possible and I find it notable the fact we have yet to see a toaster oven from any of the seasonals as a positive. If anyone wants to take a position that it's a strong Niño so the glass is cracked and only a few drops are left in it when comes to snow chances, that's up to them. But until I see reasonable consensus among seasonal guidance that a 96/97 or 23/24 is a legit possibility, as opposed to seasonal guidance ain't good enough to see that or some variation of that opinion, I'll remain positive in light of the potential a strong Niño gives for snow in the Mid Atlantic.
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