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mitchnick

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    Hanover, PA

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  1. mitchnick
    There's nothing suggesting it'll be that warm. I say that with the understanding that the Niño is at record levels, but the same models that have been showing a record Niño don't have it that warm. But actually you and I are on the same page wrt how the winter should play out despite any differences of opinion on modeling. Of course, that could change if modeling goes into the crapper as we approach met winter. Lol
  2. mitchnick
    Actually, I was just playing the part of a weenie with JI. But, since you mentioned it, analyzing this year's Euro seasonal in light of a failed Euro seasonal forecast from 23/24 is sorta beyond absurd too.
  3. mitchnick
    Cansips did better with temps around here last winter than the warmer Euro. So we toss.
  4. mitchnick
    We simply toss the Euro and run with the Cansips.
  5. mitchnick
    The single digit members (ala 96/97) are skewing it lower. Of course, that type year is on the table if the Canadian ridge bullies south. Better not.
  6. mitchnick
    The Euro's 23/24 winter forecast just stunk. As I previously posted, the Cfs2 was already showing a warm winter by mid September. This year, the difference between the 2 right now is not that great and they are similar to the Cansips, Jamstec, and NMME. So it's going to be a massive failure by all modeling or a consensus success. The only caveat being there's still time for modeling to change to something better or worse depending on one's perspective .
  7. mitchnick
    Boinnnnnng!!!
  8. mitchnick
    Let's hope not too much of a typically good thing.
  9. mitchnick
    Euro blew chunks with the 23/24 forecast thru the fall of 2023. Interestingly, Cfs2 forecast starting mid 9/23 was warm and not canonical Niño. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202309/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html
  10. mitchnick
    Maybe @Weather Will can post some of the monthly maps when he gets a chance.
  11. mitchnick
    For coastal locations, it'll be harder for snow, but it'll still be dependent on exact track and surface High locations. But if the precip forecasts from all the seasonal modeling are correct, there will at least be a lot of chances. If nothing else, it won't be a boring winter.
  12. mitchnick
    Updated Euro seasonal. A touch warmer for the winter months by around .5C. Still wet. Link to everything off this run. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
  13. mitchnick
    Link for everything on Euro seasonal https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}
  14. mitchnick
    Precip DJF & JFM
  15. mitchnick
    850 DJF & JFM
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