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mitchnick

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  1. mitchnick
    It may not reach max forecast levels, but it's far from dying. There's another westerly wind burst coming in about a month, which will be the strongest if modeling is correct. After that passes it'll be November and we should have a decent idea about when it weakens and how fast. Probably won't be fast enough in my book unfortunately. Lol
  2. mitchnick
    Don't disagree, but more for my Mid Atlantic peeps who have suffered through enough snow falling within 500' asl with rain/mix at the surface. I witnessed it enough times living/working under or near flight paths near BWI to scar my weenie memory. Lol
  3. mitchnick
    September Copernicus (Euro related) DJF Monthly Temps & Precip
  4. mitchnick
    Monthly precip DJF
  5. mitchnick
    Monthly T2 DJF
  6. mitchnick
    A tug of war between higher temps vs. copious precip.
  7. mitchnick
    Except the 2 elephants in the room, 2/83 and 1/16, did make it up the coast, especially 2/83. Edit: Forgot 2/58 & 3/58. Up the coast as well.
  8. mitchnick
    Yep, it's been on the Cfs2 plot for a couple weeks and you can see the reduction of red later this month on this 850 anomaly pic before the mother of all WWB of this Niño hits mid to late October.
  9. mitchnick
    Maybe not, but it's off to a nice start on the 12 Gefs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026090912&fh=384
  10. mitchnick
    Meanwhile, for those planning on a fishing trip off Japan, PDO up to -.73 as of yesterday.
  11. mitchnick
    The odds of temps this winter averaging AN are high. Nothing is for certain in wx, so I wouldn't say it's a guarantee, but as close to one as you can probably get all things considered. December will likely suck for snow short of a fluke and, relative to average, will probably be the warmest. Beyond that, anything is possible and I find it notable the fact we have yet to see a toaster oven from any of the seasonals as a positive. If anyone wants to take a position that it's a strong Niño so the glass is cracked and only a few drops are left in it when comes to snow chances, that's up to them. But until I see reasonable consensus among seasonal guidance that a 96/97 or 23/24 is a legit possibility, as opposed to seasonal guidance ain't good enough to see that or some variation of that opinion, I'll remain positive in light of the potential a strong Niño gives for snow in the Mid Atlantic.
  12. mitchnick
    Cfs2 still advertising the mother of all WWB's this Niño for late October into early November.
  13. mitchnick
    Depending on the model, no more than .5C in any 1 month in this area after cooling off around the same amount in August's forecasts. The Cfs2 was already much warmer at this time in 2023 as I previously posted. If we are getting a toaster oven that will seriously impact snowfall, we should know it beforehand as, imho, one of the seasonals will show it.
  14. mitchnick
    And the trend is our friend if you want it to keep rising.
  15. mitchnick
    Yep. None of the seasonals so far are a toaster oven.
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