mitchnick

Oh yeah...great start too! https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512300000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601120000

I doubt the cold pool is a problem. It's not not expansive and not very cold while surrounded by AN water temps. The -PNA otoh is. These runs make me think that SE ridge is real. Of course, it can change in 6 or 12 hours, which is a true testament of the accuracy of these so-called "predictive" models. Times like now when I wish we only had 936-1212! Lol

It had a pressing cold that never made it south. In any event, Gfs and Gem runs are crap assuming Gfs snow around 190hrs is fantasy

SE ridge. I was walking when I typed. Lol

12z Gfs and Gem both like the SECfor day 10 threat. Lol Impressive threat afterwards on Gfs fwiw.

Seems like a lot of mets feel that way, but down here anything short of near model and ensemble consensus ends up a fail or disappointment.

Whether you like Bamwx or not, he has some great explanations for coming pattern, and should watch.

BAM WX says walk away from the cliff.

Speaking of changing ensembles, Gefs' 6z run just took a pretty big jump toward the Eps. End of 0z on top and 6z on bottom. Lol

I should have added that with the SE ridge on the 6z Gfs, it offered a great overrunning threat at the end of the run. Too bad it won't be right.

Gefs continue to give us a SE ridge after multiple runs. It is a Niña still, so so I don't think we'll can write it off completely or assume the Eps will prevail.

Ensembles are supposed to trump operationals, but they can, and do, change just as fast as the operationals making them marginally more accurate than the operationals imho.

Looks like around 16" imby. If that's not just average, it's only barely over imby. Lol

Gefs definitely likes the period too.

At 312hrs, Gfs puts a tpv over Hudson Bay. Won't be shocked if we see it try another one before the end of the run.