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mitchnick

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  1. mitchnick
    I'm not defending the Cfs2, but all the models have their share of major fails and/or persistent biases at one time or another. That said, the point of my post was that the Cfs2 was confirming your call. You don't want confirmations from modeling for your calls? Fine....Chuck the models say you suck! Lol You know I'm just bustin' chops.
  2. mitchnick
    Heading toward the Euro weeklies/seasonal? Looks that way. Time will tell.
  3. mitchnick
    Cfs2, fwiw, has been advertising a little AN December, but not a blow torch.
  4. mitchnick
    Odd. Today is the strongest the weeklies have shown it at 10mb. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-10t?base_time=202610240000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202611090000
  5. mitchnick
    Today’s Euro weeklies has the trough in the south getting started by week 3 and deepens it the next 2 weeks. This is the earliest the weeklies have showed the southern trough. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202610240000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202611230000
  6. mitchnick
    This Niño has got to be a financial windfall for the YouTube mets.
  7. mitchnick
    I really don't know or care what he intended. It was a wag and is why I said "may have been" the reason. Lol
  8. mitchnick
    Can't speak for him, but he may have been just using the phrase to describe the atmosphere from the input of the record Niño.
  9. mitchnick
    Cfs2 replacement model snowfall prediction thanks to Prismshine Productions in the NE forum. I'll take it!
  10. mitchnick
    November looks shot in the east....no surprise there. December might have a chance looking at the Cfs2 and Euro weeklies, but it's a ways off for the weeklies at this point to be nothing more than a general idea.
  11. mitchnick
    Gefs fwiw
  12. mitchnick
    December was the only month that winter with a significant -NAO (-.96), hence the best month of the season.
  13. mitchnick
    Euro seasonal has it a bit west allowing a decent trough to develop in the SE. The link below is for NDJ. It holds through the rest of the winter too if you scroll forward. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_z500?area=NHEM&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202611010000
  14. mitchnick
    I noticed that too, but wasn't sure what to make of it. I guess time will tell who wins round 1 of the Euro model war. Fwiw, AIGFS has 2 cold fronts moving through after 11/1.
  15. mitchnick
    Yes. But I saw some other stuff that suggests the early warming increases chances for later warming events. But we don't want to put all our eggs in the "stratosphere basket" by any means. Best for it to just enhance our chances than to be the sole/direct cause as they often don't workout so well as most know.
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