mitchnick

BAM wx video regarding winter worth a listen imho.

They did a YouTube video on it too.

There is no warm warm forecast that guy won't embrace and no cold forecast he won't find reasons to poo-poo. Of course, that doesn't mean he won't hype cold/snow if it's in the forecast because business is business after all.

Fwiw from our friends at Accuwx.

Accuwx

October's Cansip run looks a lot like September's fwiw. Cooler up north of MD/PA line but on the dry side, except for March in ENE. 5H starts here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025100100&fh=5

Fwiw, Cansips updated October forecast for D-F looks a lot like last month's of around normal to slightly above as you head south. Temps https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2maMean_month&runtime=2025100100&fh=4 H5 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=namer&pkg=z500aMean_month&runtime=2025100100&fh=4

Might I suggest you go back there.

I really don't care about Dc, it's snowfall history or anything else with this conversation.ENSO ONLY PLEASE.

Per ice core samples at NP. Now we're even. Please, no more cc talk in this thread. Tia

We came out of a roughly 500 year mini-ice age around 1850 and it got warmer thereafter.

The regular Eps has been too warm at range since the start of August while the AI version has been better. Maybe the trend continues and maybe not. Either way, until and unless the regular Eps can prevail, I wouldn't be too concerned with that map. Otoh, even if right, we're real close to the +.50-+1.0C line, so a couple degrees F isn't a scorcher.

Since you mentioned MJO, you made me look! Lol Looks like all modeling has recently (day?) shifted back away from 4-5-6. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

That may the case, but I'm curious what the AI EPS shows since it's done better in the medium range than the Eps. That's all.