mitchnick

These youngsters will never learn

New to the area, ehh? Scraff can give you the name of the drinking holes if ur interested, I'm sure.

This oughta' send JI into a fit of rage.

Ok, Euro says 19th and Gfs says 18th. Lol

All we need from here is for the trough to close ala 1/25/00 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2026010912&fh=156

Trough was way too positive for our purposes.

Hope I'm wrong, but at 129hrs it just looks like a cold front. Maybe Euro is right with the 19th?

Comparing 5H anomalies 6z vs 0z, 0z looks better organized with the southern vort, but 6z has energy dropping south from the Great Lakes that wasn't there at 0z. That's a wild card.

You saw the stats on modeling that were posted. It's the worst. The problem is that when it shows something good, we make the mistake of wanting to believe this will be the time when it's right. Of course, it isn't. So now weenies in NE are us from last night for 6 hours until it pulls the rug on them like us.

At least you don't have much to lose.

6z Gfs hasn't given up on 15th/17th. Not huge but snow.

Yep. I'm thinking Eps reflecting the flatter "mess" of 18z. But we're far enough out to get too concerned. We do need to see 0z come back to a stronger, more consolidated vort imho.

Eps. 12z on top

12z on top, 18z below.

I hate to disagree. Too far west and rounder. I prefer 12z look. EDIT: Looks pretty different on the surface too.