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mitchnick

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    Hanover, PA

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  1. mitchnick
    Idk Don, but even I must admit Don's in denial on this one Buckeye.
  2. mitchnick
    It was last year at this time when the PDO started its dump. Interesting to see if we repeat. I know Larry uses Ncep(?) numbers, but I think they pretty much followed the same trend as this graph. Feel fee to correct me Larry.
  3. mitchnick
    Didn't realize this thread was here. I've been over the main Enso thread fighting the warmanistas with no help from @Stormchaserchuck1. Honestly, the Cfs2 does have historic potential written all over it for February and March. Coincidentally, latest 500mb runs for December looked similar at times to Euro seasonal fwiw.
  4. mitchnick
    From someone who has, for better or worse, followed the Cfs2 forecast follies over the years, the bias corrected SSTA plumes have almost always been more accurate, whether warmer or cooler. Fwiw
  5. mitchnick
    This month's Euro seasonal doesn't look that impressed for hurricanes/tropical systems beyond climo, with only the eastern Pacific showing a slightly higher frequency while all areas down in the intensity (ACE) department, except western Pacific where it forecasts straight climo.
  6. mitchnick
    Nobody is forcing anyone to consider any model. But if someone posts a model's SSTA forecast, what's so wrong or unusual about posting it's resulting weather forecast. It's done all the time.
  7. mitchnick
    The weather is what counts, and I'm not seeing anything different than previous extremes being forecasted by the same models forecasting your "global climate disruption." In fact, there's yet to be an agreement on the resulting weather.
  8. mitchnick
    I said weather in the east.
  9. mitchnick
    So you can post verbatim model conditions if they suggest a furnace but not if the same model suggests conditions otherwise?
  10. mitchnick
    Conditions on the earth a couple thousand+ miles from mby are meaningless to me except how they effect weather imby.
  11. mitchnick
    There will certainly be rainstorms as any winter, but considering the light tan is only +.5C and the next level up is only +1C, there would certainly be plenty of snow threats in there imho with such small AN progs. Plus, the individual month maps for January and February look even better.
  12. mitchnick
    You forgot to mention temps/precip on the NMME are pretty sweet for winter lovers in the east for Dec-Feb. Individual months look decent as well imho. Links start in December. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=T2ma_nmme&runtime=2026060800&fh=6 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month_nmme&runtime=2026060800&fh=6
  13. mitchnick
    The thought that you would question the great JB's claim of a weather record setter is shocking, just shocking.
  14. mitchnick
    I think he was just pointing out that the entire 1+2 was cooler than 82/83.
  15. mitchnick
    Gimme' 82/83 please! Surprise 7" in December then the Megalopolis storm in February. My brother and I had to push my late uncle's van during the Noon hour when BWI recorded 4" in that hour. Thunder and lightning all day was just surreal.
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