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mitchnick

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    Hanover, PA

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  1. mitchnick
    I'm impressed and excited. Look at that potential record breaking heat in the west.
  2. mitchnick
    We disagree on geographic labels.
  3. mitchnick
    In these parts, November snow is rarer than March snow so temps are pretty meaningless. I'd rather save the oil for when it counts anyway. Lol
  4. mitchnick
    Yet, the Euro-AIFS shows decent snow in southern Canada the 1st 15 days of November. I'd show further north, but Pivotal doesn't offer that map. Even some in the NE US.
  5. mitchnick
    Been beautiful up here since 10am with a NW breeze and a wonderful 71 degrees right now at one of the nearby Wunderground stations.
  6. mitchnick
    That bodes well imby too. I'd take that in a heartbeat.
  7. mitchnick
    Steve DiMartino's winter forecast. It's NY/NJ/PA centric, but his maps include part of this forum fwiw. https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2026/10/30/winter-forecast-2026-27/
  8. mitchnick
    Steve DiMartinio's winter forecast. Used to post on AmericanWx https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2026/10/30/winter-forecast-2026-27/
  9. mitchnick
    Lol. Only if you honestly want it warm it is.
  10. mitchnick
    Cape's going to luuuuuuuuv your posting that map. Lol
  11. mitchnick
    Lower mean today....underwater
  12. mitchnick
    I didn't quote Webb.
  13. mitchnick
    https://eos.org/editors-vox/global-impacts-of-ensos-reach-into-the-stratosphere https://www.google.com/search?q=what+does+the+stratosphere+have+to+do+with+El+Niño+&client=ms-android-tmus-us-rvc3&hs=lktq&sca_esv=e65bf6121730a79e&sxsrf=AKL5yDhbk3KYfKSBLv7Eej9pJfcM1C9qmw%3A1793207651672&ei=Yy3iat64KKvR5NoP7buWGA&biw=384&bih=692&oq=what+does+the+stratosphere+have+to+do+with+El+Niño+&gs_lp=EhNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwIjR3aGF0IGRvZXMgdGhlIHN0cmF0b3NwaGVyZSBoYXZlIHRvIGRvIHdpdGggRWwgTmnDsW8gMgUQIRigATIFECEYoAEyBRAhGKABMgUQIRirAjIFECEYqwIyBRAhGKsCMgUQABjvBUj-mQFQjR5YoJMBcAB4AJABApgBuAGgAaYnqgEENC4zNrgBA8gBAPgBAZgCHKAC7BzCAgsQABiABBiiBBiwA8ICCBAAGO8FGLADwgIIEAAYgAQYogTCAggQABiJBRiiBMICCBAhGKABGMMEwgIKECEYChigARjDBMICBRAhGJ8FwgIGEAAYFhgewgILEAAYgAQYigUYhgOYAwCIBgGQBgWSBwYyLjI1LjGgB_foAbIHBjIuMjUuMbgH7BzCBwkyLTE2LjExLjHIB-MBgAgB&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp
  14. mitchnick
    Agreed that if it rises fast, it won't be a good thing for a cold or snowy December especially in light of enso climo. But if you go to the link below for that graph, as recently as 10/14 or 10/15, the PV split (I'll call it for ease) wasn't even showing up on that weekly prog, and was very slow thereafter to show the extent of the PV's demise. So I guess, probably because I've lived in the M. Atlantic snow hole for so many years, I'll not worry about the state of the PV come December or trust the PV forecast at this distance. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202610140000
  15. mitchnick
    All the ensembles have been heading toward a SE trough (or weakening of heights as a possible precursor of the trough) in one form/location/strength or another consistent with seasonal modeling. Of course, they maybe, like so often, early with the pattern. But it's encouraging to see it happening nonetheless.
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