Heisy

18z euro vs 12z, make of it what you will. .

18z icon with a big shift SE more towards euro evolution .

Haha, not sold yet. Little interesting Ukie has a similar evolution, but like you said all of us should have learned our lesson by now after this year. Not buying until we see it shown 2+ runs in a row .

12z euro looks like Ukie at H5, even gets Philly in action. Poconos thru S NY demolished. I’d def chase personally if something like this happens…. Euro is phasing the two streams in the LR so no chance for anything but rain I’d guess… .

Similar to the ukie to a degree with the wide pass of the STJ vort that kind of drags the primary vort farther SE. euro even gets me in action down here just outside Philly which is what Ukie did too. .

The STJ vort is farther SE and kind of pulls the primary ULL farther S, if we can get that even farther SE were in even better business…. .

Wow 12z euro just came in like the Ukie to a degree at H5, big hit around the area .

Pattern isn’t terrible, but we have to get rid of these ULLs in the Midwest through confluence or even better +PNA response idk….Ensembles favorite lakes and interior again for this time period because of this. Frustrating… .

12z gfs has Northern stream racing ahead around day 7 supplying confluence with southern vort still in the southwest. .

2014 or 2015 (forget the exact year) had a solid March anafrontal snowstorm up here in Philly. I forget if it impacted you guys. However, you know winter is just about over when this discussion starts lol. .

Just for fun since there isn’t much else to discuss, the 6z GFS is a little faster N/S away from an anafrontal snowstorm. That’s what this run does but for farther N/W. Can see the stretched out LP. That being said this is the GFS beyond 7 days and the EURO looks entirely since it phases those streams much earlier….sure it’ll look completely different in 2 hours .

Edit: woops didn’t refresh and see that others had mentioned it. .

You can see the primary hanging on longer with the farther N pass of that vort on that map too. That’s what I maeant with BL temp issues near the coast this run. It’s one run though, see what tonight and tomorrow bring. I’m just hoping for a chase worthy event .

That’s what I meant, I trust Will, just not sure I see it the same way. It’s still a good run for a lot of people but SE? .

I’m confused though here the comparison, not ridiculing just asking…

Yea but I think since then Northern Vort doesn’t dive as far S it’s warmer in the BL idk hard to say because the snow mean ticked farther N .

Yea eps and control followed suite. Not as good of a run, doesn’t drop the core of the N/S ULL as far SE as 12z mean snow ticked N .

18z euro vs 12z… see what eps/control do in a little bit. Main vort seems a little farther S, southern energy/low little flatter .

By the way I liked the look of the 18z icon at the end of its range. The southern vort trended a little more progressive & main ULL had a little sharper dive look .

Yea for sure I would def take that as a positive this run. .

Yea the main vort strengthens in time to produce, but it’s def different evolution vs euro which phases in that STJ vort. .

It’ll get there in it’s own special way lol. .

18z gfs still letting the STJ vort escape east, still not in its useful range though… wouldn’t worry about it yet .

I think NYC region has a shot with this one… gotta get that CCB backed up into the region once the capture happens. We’ll see how the interaction between that southern vort plays out over next few days. Euro isn’t alone, icon is pretty similar and think looked better at 18z as well fwiw .

It’s close, but 58 dug a lot farther S vs what the euro is snowing. Big issue with this one is the HP. It’s really far west and more west than N. You can still see isobars from the primary near Lake Erie here. Torching the BL. We’d need the capture to happen a lot farther S to get into the ccb for dynamics. That highly favors N Pa through Interior SNE right now. NYC has an outside shot too. If you get a flatter wave from the STJ vort maybe NW can get some snow. Our only path to victory I see for the cities is if this capture happens a lot farther S than any model shows right now. .