madwx

Full sun here this morning after days of cloud cover. Gonna be a beautiful day, even as clouds fill back in the afternoon.

It's a lot easier to get Gulf of Mexico moisture when the GOM is in your front yard.

hundreds of millions of years ago, the midwest was under a shallow sea. I always thought it would be cool to see what that would be like, what I didn't know is that I'd get to see it in my lifetime.

It's crazy how much wetter the 30 year climate means will be when the data set changes from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 For MSN Jan 1.23" -> 1.46" Feb 1.45" -> 1.52" Mar 2.19" -> 2.26" Apr 3.40" -> 3.78" May 3.55" -> 4.02" (at least) Jun 4.54" -> 5.27" (estimated) Jul 4.18" -> 4.34" (estimated) Aug 4.26" -> 4.27" (estimated) Sep 3.13" -> 3.37" (estimated) Oct 2.40" -> 2.73" (estimated) Nov 2.39" -> 2.21" (estimated) Dec 1.75" -> 1.71" (estimated) Only December and November have seen slight decreases in precip and some months (Apr - Jun, Sep - Oct) have seen significant increases in precip.

It depends on how the shortwaves eject from the western trough but should have a few chances at thunderstorms starting Friday as well

We've got easterly winds throughout the depth of the troposphere. Not something you see every day.

Very efficient rain making. 0.92” here so far with 12+ hours of rain to go

also its crazy that most of Kansas has not had a tornado watch yet this year. In fact the state only had its first tornado last night.

The trend continues with the 18z NAM, further north and slower. Makes Sunday a little more interesting

Look at how paltry tornado watches have been across the northern half of the area the past year (or couple years)

the latest NAM has 500-1000 J/KG of ML CAPE over Wisconsin and Michigan early Sunday morning and has it lasting into the afternoon in Michigan. Previous runs had the low going from the Quad Cities to Toledo, the new run has it going from La Crosse to Detroit.

GFS and NAM are trending north with this weekends storm system, more in line with the Euro. Too bad the timing isn't great for the western lakes, otherwise we could have some good storm chances.

After the fog burned off this morning its almost all clear except for a few passing cirrus, temps warming into the 70s with a light northerly breeze. 10/10 day on tap

Getting some nice thunder tonight @CheeselandSkies

this pattern reminds me so much of something more mid summer-like (besides the temps), explosive convective growth in Iowa, modest mid and upper level winds and training thunderstorms later over Illinois.

Yeah, I've been doing calculations of how much of each state has been infected based on the fatalities and an assumed fatality rate of 0.7% and I have about 3.5% of people in Indiana infected right now which seems to match that data. Based on that only 4 states have had more than 10% of the population infected, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts. And 15 states have had less than 1% of people infected.

Midwestern farmers should invest in hydroponics the way rainfall has trended in the area the past 2 decades

Overall I’d say better. It doesn’t overmix like the HRRR does and has a more realistic convective representation than the 3KNAM. It’s not perfect but definitely an upgrade. It’s nailed a couple events in the past month that the others have whiffed on

Honestly this pandemic has been great motivation for me to get back in shape. With the lack of things to do/lack of places to eat out and the general fact that this hits people in poor health harder I’ve been working out more than I ever had. Lost 20 pounds since early March and hope to keep it going

I just got done with a good workout, I'm sitting out on the patio and I'm about to grill some dinner, I haven't been this chilled in awhile. I don't want to antagonize, we're all in this together and you have a lot of good points, but when I see incorrect information being used and I have the correct data, I have an obligation to spread the correct information. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ This site has more updated values (they scrape the data daily from each states websites), where you'll see that South Carolina is one of the laggards(along with a handful of midwestern states). Sure South Carolina is doing some good things, like loosening the lockdown, having a reasonable reopening strategy etc. but testing ain't one of those things, and until testing is an order of magnitude better, you (and a lot of other states) won't truly be in front of this

I think you guys are doing a reasonable job opening up but to say you are in line with the rest of states in testing is an outright lie, you have the second least amount of tests per capita in the nation, the US average is 30k tests per million and there are 20 states with over 30k test per 1M so no there aren't just "a few outliers"

It's a good thing y'all are ramping up testing because your current testing numbers are paltry.

HRRRv4 says wagons north, I'm gonna ride my new God tier model.

down to 31 this morning as one last goodbye to the cold, already up to 39 at 7 am on our way to the mid 60s

btw Black River Falls hit 16 and Sparta hit 20 this morning. crazy again for mid May