jojo762

Probably going to go out and give tomorrow along the dryline/triple-point in Western KS. Low-level moisture has trended upward a bit in guidance, and all CAMs develop convection along the dryline between 22-00z. Tornado threat is likely fairly minimal due to lack of richer low-level moisture and lingering CINh, but severe weather is quite likely with any sustained, strong updraft given background environment. Would not be totally surprised if a supercell did *try* to produce something around sunset as low-level hodographs will likely be more than sufficient -- 3CAPE is definitely a bit lacking, though, and again the concern for lingering CINh.

Some better agreement by the models today about Wednesday being "the day" for the system to eject into the plains. Admittedly the current forecast guidance would not exactly yield a chaseable setup with questionable moisture, veered/unsubstantial low-levels and potential for a strong cap. Personally not sure that models have a good grasp yet on what to do with this lead wave (that basically did not exist on the Euro until last night's 00z run).

17 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Well, the above few posts from last year didn't exactly age well.

It's still early season, at this point I'm just happy we're not locking into an extended winter-like pattern as we roll into April.

Eh, they aged okay but definitely not great. Late May last year wasn't exactly blockbuster for tornadoes, but there were many chaseable days -- that's all I can really ask for. That Wednesday Andy referenced turned out to be a frustrating day in the TX panhandle/western OK (drove from E KS for what amounting to a bunch of nice looking turkey towers) but some folks got some good structure in southwestern Oklahoma later in the evening.

Nebulous details of moisture quality, shortwave timing and orientation, as well as low/mid-level temps aside, it sure looks like we could see a legit threat of severe weather somewhere across the central/southern plains mid/late-next week as moisture begins to advect northward starting as early as Sunday and a trough develops out west.

Beyond that, things probably get fairly boring for a bit as NW/zonal flow becomes dominant across most of the country east of the Rockies.

I remember when we first started talking about that supercell when it was in SE MS... Wild ride. Hopefully folks in front of these significant tornadoes it produced were able to get somewhere safe. Nighttime tornadoes suck..

180+ mph g2g.......

Hopefully people in the path of this thing were aware...... This could end up being very bad, basing off current velocity and debris signature.

Several nearly bottomed out CC bins... Likely doing significant damage as we speak.

G2G approaching 150mph now. Yikes.

Supercell east of Heidelberg, MS appears to be strengthening.

Trio of discrete/semi-discrete cells to watch near the AL/MS border... None of them are particularly strong attm, but perhaps one can become dominant given downstream environment.

I'm not entirely sure how much longer this thing could last given the sizable amount of junk to its south that is about to interact with it. 

Typically extremely intense supercells are incredibly efficient at ingesting junk, so we'll see...

This has been on the ground for 50 to 60 miles at this point.

Just now, JasonOH said:

I’m pretty sure it’s still a tornado. Based on radar I think it hasn’t lifted at all.

0.3KFT g2g is ~150mph right now. Imagine it could be *actually* even stronger.

I digress... The velocity signature has not weakened. My god.

Seems like the velocity signature *might* be weakening... Strong, potentially violent tornado is still ongoing nonetheless.

CC debris ball is 2 miles wide now.

Velocity signature is as strong as ever right now. Wow.

Debris fallout evident on CC as far as ~25 miles north of the tornado. Jesus.

Long lead-time tornado warning issued....

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
505 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  North central Chilton County in central Alabama...
  Southern Shelby County in central Alabama...

* Until 600 PM CDT.
    
* At 505 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
  was located over Harrisburg, or near Brent, moving east at 50 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris 
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile 
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, 
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete 
           destruction is possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  Calera, Montevallo, Columbiana, Jemison, Wilsonville, Wilton,
  University Of Montevallo, Lay Lake, American Village, Shelby,
  Minooka Park, Beeswax Creek Park, Alabama 4H Center, Waxahatchee
  Creek, Highway 145 and CR 46, Kelley Branch, Spring Creek, Gaston
  Steam Plant and Shelby Shores.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3328 8641 3327 8640 3327 8643 3324 8644
      3324 8646 3320 8646 3320 8649 3318 8650
      3312 8646 3309 8651 3307 8651 3306 8652
      3300 8652 3291 8688 3305 8688 3306 8693
      3308 8693 3309 8695 3310 8694
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 248DEG 45KT 3290 8720 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...<.75IN
 

Violent, large tornado approaching Brent, AL now features g2g 200+ mph at 2.3KFT with several bins blacked out. 

numerous 120-135mph bins on the tornado approaching Brent, AL.

The atmosphere has a way on days like this of getting pissed off at us weather weenies calling bust... Yikes.

60dbz debris ball on the southern tornadic supercell now....

Strong tornado in progress in Birmingham metro.....