jojo762

Per latest recon the hurricane-strength wind-field has greatly expanded in the NE quad.

1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said:

Looks like it.

I rang it up on google maps earlier that it was going to take about 2 hours to go 40 miles from eastern NOLA to just a bit north of Slidel on I-59.

That is a pretty devastating "wobble"/multi-hour trend for New Orleans... a mere six hours ago this morning it looked like they might be saved from the eyewall of Ida tomorrow. But now it's looking quite likely that they will take it on the chin. Hopefully we can get some meaningful wobbles in the opposite direction.

Looks like NHC is pretty much following the DVT estimates which indicate ~the advisory wind speed/pressure.

Looks like basing off of the latest IR imagery, including the image above, that Ida is close to completing whatever "cycle" this was that cleared out the eye as deep convection is nearly wrapped around the entire circulation again.

Verbatim a T5.6 is a borderline category 3 hurricane. I doubt we are actually there yet. Final T# of 4.7 (~82.2kt/95mph) is probably fairly accurate attm.

4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Is it me or did it also start moving more Northward? 

Getting plenty of GOES GLM feedback for the first time in hours in the latest convective blow-up in the eyewall. Bombs away.

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

You mean category 42069

Nice.

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

This thing is booking, think we’re looking at a 960mb landfall.

Kind of a weird looking storm on IR too. Core looks decent, but rest of the storm looks like hot garbage on IR. Suspect its probably a product of sun/heating, but not sure.

Anyone have any clue when the next recon mission takes off into Ida? NHC recon schedule does not seem to indicate that one is taking off soon, but I might be reading it wrong...

Latest NHC advisory lowers max forecast winds to 115kt from 120kt. Not that it makes much of a difference.

Looks like max FL winds in the NE quad of 74kt and max SFMR of 63kt. Gonna take a few hours definitely to ramp back up structurally. Looks like a great time to get some shut eye for what will probably be a wild ride tomorrow.

Per recon the southwest side of Ida is exceedingly weak right now -- barely T.S. strength basing off of combo of FL and SFMR winds, which admittedly is not particularly surprising given current sat presentation in that quadrant + that quad had to deal with the higher terrain in Cuba... Extrap pressure down to ~990mb. Should get data from stronger northeast side soon.

3 minutes ago, Doc Jon said:

Can, anyone comment on that most recent recon data?

Recon found the pressure to be ~5mb higher, and the FL winds are about 75kt with SFMR winds at ~ hurricane strength.

Flying south now for another pass here shortly.

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Per recon dropsonde, the pressure is ~991 mb.

Cuba and the island of life do not appear to have had much of an impact on Ida... Pressure a little higher, winds a little lower -- circulation still intact. Last fly in the ointment has come and gone, not great...

Circulation appears to be in the Gulf now, bombs away from here. Gonna be a wild ride.

Also Air Force HH just left from KBIX (Biloxi, MS). Should be there in under 2 hours i'd imagine... 

1 minute ago, David Reimer said:

Climbed to get over Cuba and will now monitor it as it comes off Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.

I'm assuming the long holding pattern was them waiting for approval to fly over Cuba -- again -- too? Not sure exactly, also could've been to fix potential equipment issues. Weird mission.

NOAA HH has turned around to head back into the storm... lol wut

1 minute ago, dan11295 said:

It has been interacting with land. Might that be a cause?

I'm guessing so... Looks like their next set of data cut off all wind and pressure data.

NOAA HH just entered the core, unfortunately something about their wind data seems "off." FL and SFMR not correlating how they should be.

Not the most surprising occurrence, but it looks like Ida's outflow has greatly expanded on the western-side, and to a lesser extent the southwest side, of the system since ~19z. Upper-level WV imagery shows this quite well. 

NHC now explicitly forecasting a category 4 hurricane prior to landfall...

Also upped the storm surge for a portion of the coast: "Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft"

NOAA HH just left Tampa a short time ago... Should be near the COC in a bit over an hour.

24 minutes ago, andyhb said:

 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  61% is  12.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  82% is   7.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  76% is  11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  70% is  17.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  53% is  22.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  73% is  15.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  47% is  10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  31% is   5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

SHIPS RI probs are going berserk now, as expected.

Somehow, these almost feel too low… However, given how quickly Ida ramped up today, I do wonder if that also raises the chances of an ERC later on that “robs” Ida of additional intensification.