jojo762

Looks like Ida has reemerged into the water via Lake Raccourci.

Before this oil rig news gets too far, we should add that this is only being reported by a small independent source and has not been properly vetted and/or verified yet.

Wow...

Sounds like this Jokko Williams guy is saying that a chaser (or two?) went south to Grand Isle and their beacon (presumably SN dot) disappeared... Uh oh.

Incredibly they might have gotten one last dropsonde into the eye minutes before landfall. Crazy.

Landfall at 11:55am. Port Fourchon.

We are almost definitely minutes or second away from losing the Grand Isle cam.

In addition to the imminent clash with the NE eyewall, Grand Isle like has a significantly long time to go with onshore flow blasting storm surge.

Southern eyewall has easily the most lightning detected in it right now than I have ever seen in a hurricane eyewall.

Yeah it was my bad, I read their coordinates wrong and assumed they had passed through the NE quad -- it was in fact the SE quad.

NE quad from recon: 127kt FL/106kt SFMR. Likely a borderline Cat 4 right now -- as if it matters.

It is obvious at this point, but Grand Isle is going to take the full-force of this beast. NE quad winds + surge. Going to end up looking like Mexico Beach, sadly.

What could very well be the last pass through the true center from recon yields a 930.1mb extrap pressure.

Recon data in NW eyewall: FL winds of 111kt, and SFMR of 101kt. Still cranking.

Still probably have an hour or a little more until official landfall. Did anybody have 150mph or 933mb as their landfall intensity?

Moat associated with EWRC becoming more noticeable with each new scan... Too bad it is way too late to matter. Ida sputtering almost all day yesterday all but assured this type of scenario would play out.

Really do not like that the storm is choosing now to decide to start its turn more toward the north. Likely means that western portions of NOLA metro will be in the eastern eyewall... Which will cause substantial wind damage, and potentially impactful storm surge (unsure exactly how much surge since they are "inland" but most of that "land" is marsh... obviously there's the levee system too).

Wobble to the north now, evident on radar. While i'm usually not a fan of wobble PxP, it is important to remember that wobbles to the north could now signify the system is beginning its well advertised turn toward the north as well... Which clearly matters wrt impacts.

Port Fourchon, featuring a sizable petroleum complex -- nearly 2.5 miles in length from north to south -- is likely to take a direct hit... Leeville on Louisiana hwy 1 appears it could cease to exist... And to be entirely honest the southernmost portion of the levee on LA hwy 3235 (immediately south of Golden Meadow, LA) looks wholly insufficient to handle the forecasted level of surge. (recommend checking it out on google maps street view -- perhaps you'll have a different take.) If the levee protecting the hwy 3235 corridor is overtopped, or fails altogether, we are really talking about a whole new ballgame in terms of devastation with a large amount of homes and businesses all the way to US90 -- and beyond.

Dropsonde and FL data would make it reasonable to nudge this up to 135kt. A little surprised the 8am advisory didn’t do that actually.

I’m gonna venture to say this is faulty equipment.

It hit water in the NE eyewall.

Ida is really pulling off another Hurricane Michael with intensification likely to occur all the way into landfall. Given continued remarkable pressure falls, expect one of these passes by HH will eventually yield category 5 SFMR data.

FL winds >130kt in the northwest quadrant … talk about rarefied air.