frostfern

Looking ominous.  

Flint area going to get crushed with straight line winds and supercell mergers.

Getting that supercell look.

That notch looks interesting.

49 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Now I wonder if the southern end is where supercells will form. Or will this be a large bowing segment going through multiple states with imbedded rotation

I think the best chance of rotation is when the line interacts with any lake breezes later in the afternoon.  Problem is the the low level wind is strong so it would probably be over the water.  Otherwise the 0-3 km is kinda unidirectional.  Thats the only problem though.  CAPE and overall shear are impressive.

Getting the old skip over again.

There was a 5 minute torrential downpour with a few pea-sized pingers mixed in around 2am last night.  Not much in the way of CG lightning though.  Just a few flashes and soft rumbles.

On 7/12/2023 at 3:14 PM, hardypalmguy said:

below 40 is just as bad as above 100.

How about we lock you outside with no access to AC or heating for a few days and see which is more survivable.  I'll pick 40 every single time if it's not wet.  Wetness complicates the situation slightly as choosing between hypothermia and dehydration / heat stroke is a tough one, but you can at least dress for cold and wet.

My honest criteria is more complicated.  The worst is really anything between 32 and 50.  If it were up to me I'd skip the months with average temperatures in that range.    I'll maybe appreciate a sunny day in the upper 40s in late February or early March if the snow is all melted anyways.

22 hours ago, mjwise said:

Looking hazy and intermittently smoky on the surface on the smoke HRRR for Northern Ill starting Sat morning all the way through Sun.

It's baaaaaack.  

I miss heat and storms with good lightning.  Its lush again, but still an uninteresting summer up here and the long range is disappointing again.  

Its gone for now, but could cycle back.  Watching that southern one too.

That northern couplet is real.  Small rain-wrapped tornado.

11 minutes ago, Lightning said:

We'll see but I have seen many lines fall apart or be a shadow of what they were as they get east of Lansing.  Just hard to get excited when the past few hours were all modeled to be very active and all I have is 0.02" so far.    I would take hours of plain heavy rain as opposed to a 5 minute storm with <1/4".

I really think it will hold together or even build more south.  It’s only 9:30 PM.  These things typically die off in the early morning hours, and it will teach you before then.

I no longer have the energy to chase at night after dark.  If I had someone else cover some of the driving it might be doable.  Just too exhaused these days.  I really just want a nice big loud cracking and thumping storm IMBY, not wind and tornadoes.  There’s an occasional flash and rumble, but nothing frequent.  Same as previous July storms IMBY this year.  Mostly just heavy rainers.

5 minutes ago, Lightning said:

At least you are getting the rain.  Dry pavement here right now.  Quick showers that feed the north rains is all I am getting. . I hate when DTX this morning had MBY as ground zero for the heavy rains ... Flint northward win this one.  Maybe I can get a storm when the backend goes through.  No holding my breath that is for sure.

There’s no way that line is going to miss you and it will have lightning.  I would chase if it wasn’t so late.  Drought is past over up here but really no light show at all.  Just plain hard rain.

48 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Joe is one of the best, today looks like one for the L file tho

Surface based instability isn’t as important as 0-1km shear for IMO.    As long as SBCAPE isn’t zero, slightly elevated instability just north of a weak boundary is enough.  Lots of sun and deep mixing directly overhead creates more CAPE, but it makes the 0-1 km shear more unidirectional too.

Another stratiform snooze fest with next to no lightning.

14 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Timing isn't the biggest issue.

Ridge placement and environment are, both of which favor the southwestern/southern portions of the sub-forum for this upcoming stretch.

That story never changes.

1 hour ago, Lightning said:

I got nicked by that cell.  Hoping the next one gets here too.  I have pretty much been in the same camp as you.  

Kinda feels like this lately:

 

 

Completely skipped over this side.  Hope to finally get a good nocturnal light show at some point when the front comes back north.  This summer has not been cooperative.

Next 10 days looks wet now, possibly really wet if the next cutoff stalls in the right place, but no heat or high CAPE IMBY for a long time.  Still boring for summer, but better than drought and smoke.

16 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah. GFS has pretty strong WNW 500mb flow for the time of year over us next Tuesday/Wednesday, but suggests instability will be lacking.

Despite being a career chase for me, March 31 is too damn early for our season to start and finish.

We got smoke season instead this year.

4 hours ago, Brian D said:

Yeah, they don't tell you the nature of the weather that created them.

I remember living in Seattle where the pattern is extremely bimodal in early summer.  In June you get a lot of cloudy days where it barely gets above 60, then you get some offshore flow to burn off the stratus and you have a stretch of 80s.  The average high is dead smack in the middle, but "average" days aren't the norm at all.

Still feels like miss south will be the rule for me with the frontal zone refusing to push north of I-80.  High latitude Greenland block is good for shear/baroclinicity this time of year, but the constantly bad MJO / ENSO phase combo keeps the SE ridge from ever really flexing. 

17 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Hoping we have a July 2010 type late month with lots of storms for the whole area 

2010 was the good old days.