weathafella

I think the variability in the handling of the MJO will continue to cause some back and forth in the December guidance causing various fist bumping and bridge jumping for a little while longer which is a bit uncharacteristic as we approach the solstice but this high end strong Nino is not behaving like many have in recent years. I’m giving it another week before I make any declaration based on any evidence of how December untimely plays out.

I hear you! Unfortunately for those it matters sunrise also gets later for another month.

2009 says hi

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Every day is an opportunity to be thankful for what we have. I feel that way when I wake up and can put 2 feet on the floor and have another day of good health. Enjoy the eating fest!

The December relaxation period is actually trending less problematic with each run. NAO ftw.

Not sure about 12/2. My family is planning a dinner maybe that night but I may be able to show up for a short time. I’ll try either way. Just as an aside, winters haven’t been the same since we stopped going to Clarkes Boston.

High over Lake Huron and man it was bumpy all the way from BOS. This is not an insignificant system. Smoothing out just now thankfully. 33,764 feet per my elevation app. Looks like a pretty good thump for some-enjoy!

I think our window for wintry precipitation is 11/25-12/5 and then we snooze for a spell.

Really? Damn I’ve been sleeping since my college days…

That winter was during my freshman year in college in upstate NY. Snow and cold dominated.

Well it looks like we take a break for a spell beginning later in the first week of December probably into mid month and possibly beyond. GEFS has Pacific air flooding the nation below the Canadian border. By that time 40 for a high will feel ok so a few days of 45+ will feel even better. Hopefully we'll revert wintry in time for the Holidays but that's not usually how it's been working of late. Still this has a less ratter feel. But that's weenie talk.

I thought about spending thanksgiving there about 6 years ago but didn’t. This year I opted for San Francisco…lol. Milder will feel good for a few days.

RGEM still living off of its press clippings from 2015…

A little graupel on my walk just now.

EPS is tasty moving into the end of November into December.

Butt emoji?

You could tell things are different this year as qq struggles for relevance within his 5 ppd.

So let’s take the hypothetical that this week is normal. For BOS that means around 50-52. BOS climo max drops below 50 on 11/27. The drop is fast thereafter but my point is it’s very easy to be below normal for the next 10 days and not have any snow chances.

It's amazing how many friends my age think this November has been warm. I guess growing up with a few very cold Novembers during our formative years skewed people's judgement. Boston should finish the month solidly below normal considering they came out of the torch still -1.2. Normal high should drop below 50 by Thanksgiving and 3 degrees/week for about the next month.

Just a few days ago you could see ensembles trying to break down a potentially wintry pattern. Now they’re showing reload. If all this holds we could have a nice late November into the first part of December.

True story: I had a rental property about 50 miles east of LA 40 years ago and needed to drive out there one day. Of course this is well before the internet and streaming so I had regular radio on and they did a 1 hour interview with Moe Howard’s (Moe of 3 stooges) daughter. She basically said her entire life with her father was a hoot! Someone let the pope know that normal highs for PSM this time of year are still well into the 40s.

10-15 below normal is so meh….

See you at 18z.

I’d much rather below normal November this year vs past years. We just got our mid October to mid November gas bill. 60% higher therms vs a year ago same period with 4 less days vs a year ago. If you’re not noticing the difference this November vs past few you’re not really interested in anything but snow. Snow in this part of the world has been scarce in November as long as I’m alive. If we happen to get something in the next 2 weeks that’s beyond a minimal amount I think that’s a good sign for the upcoming winter.

Funny we’re heading to Chicago Sunday driving this time before going to California the day before Thanksgiving. Coming back to Boston by car through the lakes especially returning the end of tday weekend could be interesting.