weathafella

I will probably taint for a spell unless the low consolidates more than expected.  I have a doctors appointment at 9AM-bad timing unfortunately.  My expectation is 2-3 for mby.

31 minutes ago, George001 said:

The Canadian is a great model, it should not be discounted. 

lol….

Flakes here now 

Euro today says 1-3/2-4.

I can understand he frustration with posters behaving like babies but for me I consider that time to move to other endeavors.  But it sucks when you are trying for discussion and the usual suspects chime in forget it or everything sucks and I wish we all died….

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully we can avoid any major torching. GFS kind of shows how. We get some days in the 40a but no warm rainstorms. Then pattern reload out west toward month-end which makes sense since all the ensembles show that too as MJO goes back around to phase 6/7

The post relaxation period looks like a great pattern and hopefully more durable than the upcoming colder period.  MJO suggests it’s possible.

Everyone prepared for the big warmup for a few days around 1/25 give or take a few days?

7 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

Maybe a permanent thread entitled "Winter Sucks and I Need Negative Attention" pinned at the top would help alleviate a lot of these posts.  

It’s a natural progression from the early/pre winter panic threads.

People got all giddy from one good model suite maybe 2 days ago.  Then the rug got pulled and everyone's in a bad mood again.  Keep the snow jones in your back pocket until it has a better chance of reality.  Also, while the 16th probability has gone down, it's not dead yet.  Same for the 20th.

Remember the words of Richard Pryor when all the arguments fail….”well fuck it then!”

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. They’ll have a legit shot at it if they go into February at 3.8”. But I have a feeling the upcoming week is going to put a dent in it…even if neither system is a blockbuster. 

BOS is at 4”.  3.8 Sunday and 0.2 in December

And then there’s the 84 hour NAM….

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro…. No dice.

 

I didn’t think that was settled since it only goes to 90 hours.   I didn’t think it was a terrible look at hour 90.

That's a pretty big jump NW on the 12z Euro vs 0z.

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take the UK.

The heavy rain it gives you?

I think it’s way too premature to toss this.  GFS actually brings qpf well west and kind of shows a double barreled strung out structure.  Having cmc as the most robust of the 12z suite so far does not give me warm amd fuzzies but even 108+ hours out this system is not at all able to be tossed or accepted.  

Euro still well offshore with minimal impact verbatim.  Trying for an inverted trough which could be a sign that we’re heading for a more robust solution in the coming days.

1/19-20 sne and NNE particularly Maine.

Big time nuke on 1/19 for BOS

I like the timing on gfs.  My wife’s returning from Chicago after a long time caring for her mom.  Gfs says she may get in before the meat of whatever happens comes.  Flight due 9pm Tuesday night.

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

holy shit, on the gfs the storm evolves into a BLIZZARD for all of eastern mass! Inside 7 days, an actual fucking BLIZZARD! 

Whoop there it is!  

I think if we take an average of the British today (UKMET-Euro) we’d do fine...lol.

Tip starts the thread and the euro immediately says “not so fast!”

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We here you there 

Ice 

I thought we were talking about UKMET.  Silly me!

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Glad we don’t live there. 

You do.  The low runs west of you on the ukmet.