WEATHER53

No need to look at a whole bunch of other factors. With that high severely misplaced, we are in trouble

That high running off Maine just as it starts is no good for 12/2. Further west by 350 miles is needed

43.7 for a high which is lowest of season

It takes 2.5 days for models to cycle thru the CAB so look for either tomorrow night or no later than noon Saturday for sizable snow amounts to appear uniformly

I had to laugh. 0-15” What a science

He’s not a snow lover and his comments to me are unusual for him so I’m quite hopeful and 12/5 looks good analog wise

Well then you three!

Me too

Keith is concerned about events thru 12/6 Hapoy Thanksgiving my man!

The real Santa just arrived in NYC My temp has held steady last 3 hours

That’s a lot like what blizzard if 66 in Salisbury did for me at the same age

And I drive thru cornfields coming lup from Westminster to Manchester and I think there was 5’ of snow and not drifts

I peaked at 71.5 and am down to 46.5 10 hours later

Temp dropping 1.5ph and I think that continues with close to a 35 degree drop in 18 hours by 8am Turkey time daylight

Your 12/4-5 that I believe in is still on Models will cycle and show it some snd then not . Busy time and then analogs say 12/20-21

CAB The good snows portrayed last night in 10 of 100 panels still has a 1 in 10 chance and the models are now cycling through the other 9 out of 10

Now if that takes an A track over Atlanta then DC looks good and if it cuts and then supposedly transfers we might get some warm front overrunning snow and then drizzle

71.5 for my high with ominous looks approaching

Going to be ripping when the cold front blasts thru. If we were to pop 70-75 it would be Mega Front action of 40 degree drop in 24 hours

Yes his is stellar. My records started in 1966 and really got going 1980-present . What happened from April into Setptember and what’s been happening last 15 or so days, each with a weighted average. When I find , for example, that May and June with near historically wet then July with very high heat indexes then August dry and normal temps and Nov 1-15 damp dreary snd chilly-what followed all that? When I can find 4 out of 5 matches or 7 out of 10 then I reveal my thoughts I like 12/4-5

3/4 days ago I responded to Ji that I was excited about 12/4-5. That comes from my memory and records of analog past events

So DCA would be 20 at 1 am

Amen and I have been getting crucified for years for saying this. It’s good to have a more popular poster finally get on board Lets go over the needed changes. Nothing beyond 5 days out. Drop the microscope approach and do a broader naked eye or binoculars approach stop trying to find out why the last forecast needs changing ingest more AI analog historical outcomes accept the FACT that 50 different outcomes is Not a forecast nor prediction but rather a needless cover all bases conglomeration There are mire but until and unless the consumers of models stop paying for and extolling the virtue of failing models then nothing will change

Exactly Our forecasting system is broken but many cling to it quite vociferously. Some can navigate impressively getting stations installed on public and private lands, they have talent and contacts and expert execution. I wish they would apply that talent to NOAA and NWS and bring about change. I’ve offered suggestions and not just complaints. But I’m a minority voice in that

January will deliver guaranteed