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Posts posted by lee59

  1. 35 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

    What site are using to track the latest gusts?

    I actually saw that on the Weather Channel. Scituate Ma., where they have someone reporting live, had a recent gust to 68mph. Winds now picking up here.

  2. 35 minutes ago, wdrag said:

    Hi... will update OBS thread TITLE amounts, maybe around 8P as we get going.  One thing am pretty sure of... we get big wind and power outages CT/LI and am staying with the near 70MPH gusts.  

    More when I get a new handle on everything after a day of work, and installing (w Nick Stefano and excellent support from Weatherflow help desk) new weather station.  Hopefully it does well. 

    Good luck with the weather station. I just checked out the tempest, very interesting. I currently have Davis.

  3. 23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

    Remember when the models had Monday as cool and wet? Now we get warm sectored. The usual warm spots in NJ may make another run on 80° with enough sun.

    New run


    Old run



    Yeah that seems to be the question, is Monday in or out of the warm sector

  4. 3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

    Yeah, the warmer departures to the north pattern has been locked in since last winter.




    With that warmth up north, if we get some good cold air passing over the warmer than normal Great Lakes, could be some big lake affect in the snowbelt areas.

  5. 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

    Brilliant sunshine provided for another unseasonably warm October day. Temperatures soared well into the 70s across the region.

    Newark reached 70° for the 173rd time this year. That tied the record set in 2010. Four of the five years that saw 170 or more such days have occurred since 2000 and three have occurred since 2010.

    Tomorrow will be a bit cooler but still unseasonably warm. A more seasonably cool weekend lies ahead. Early next week and again later in the week, storms could bring a moderate to significant rainfall to parts of the region. No sharp cold shots appear likely through the remainder of October.

    The following locations are on course to challenge or establish new record high lowest monthly temperatures for October (through October 20):

    Allentown: 40° (record: 38°, 1971)
    Boston: 46° (record: 45°, 1971)
    Bridgeport: 43° (record: 41°, 2004)
    Islip: 42° (record: 40°, 1971 and 2017)
    New York City-JFK: 48° (record: 46°, 1971)
    New York City-LGA: 51° (record: 47°, 1971)
    New York City-NYC: 47° (record: 45°, 1971)
    Newark: 46° (record: 45°, 1971)
    Philadelphia: 46° (record: 45°, 1882, 1927 and 1931)
    Poughkeepsie: 38° (record: 35°, 1971, 1995 and 1996)
    White Plains: 44° (record: 40°, 1971)

    In northern Maine, Caribou has yet to experience its first freeze of autumn. The prior record latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The normal first freeze (1991-2020) occurs on September 25th, which was an increase of 2 days over the prior 1981-2010 base period.

    The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

    Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

    Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

    The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

    The SOI was +12.18 today.

    The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.619 today.

    On October 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.334 (RMM). The October 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.312 (RMM).

    Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.8° (3.9° above normal).


    It seems the warmth over the past number of months  has been more extreme, relative to normal, the further north you go.

  6. 9 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

    Normal high today is 60 Give or take a degree or two depending on what part of the region you’re in

    Just for perspective…

    Actually a little higher than that in the immediate metro area, 63 Central Park and 64 Newark, 62 Islip. But to your point it is already 60 in Central Park, although a lot of the more rural areas are quite a bit chillier.

  7. 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

    A heavier shower moving out over the Long Island Sound resulted in a rainbow.





    Yes I saw a rainbow in my area, looking toward the north shore area.

    • Like 1
  8. 4 hours ago, psv88 said:

    Come...the park lol. lets use the park in the mid winter then too...

    I like what someone recently said, that Kennedy is a good temperature representation for those going to the beach, Newark is good for those going to the city and Central Park a good representation for those going to the park. They all have their place. Considering there is no foliage on the trees during mid winter, why not use Central Park. Of course this time of year that foliage makes a difference for daytime highs.

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