87storms

7 minutes ago, TSG said:

There's a few posters that should look into a medical mj card, or maybe a xanax Rx. I have to imagine some of you are taking years off your life at this point

do it with me.. BREATHE IN, 1.... 2... 3..., BREATHE OUT

so you're saying a good indica (or part of a gummy) can help?

asking for a friend.

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m getting very concerned for the viability of spring skiing. March into early April is some of the best in northern New England. That’s my favorite time to hit up sugarbush, sugarloaf, Stowe and Wildcat. But their base is pathetic. Last weekend it was down to dirt and rock between the moguls at sugarbush and Killington.  I got into a really dicey spot on vertigo head wall as half way down on the steepest spot there was no snow for a good 15 feet. Had to sideslide into the woods and make some tight turns to get out of that jam. If they don’t get at least several more feet they won’t last long at all once it warms. 
 

Worst part is out west is awful too. East had no snow until Jan then was cold but kinda dry. The west has been warm and dry!  This spring season is at risk of being an epic fail. 

sounds like some good mountain biking lol.

i do like skiing, but haven't been in years (thought seven springs was fun, though).  the west vs east skill level thing might actually be similar for mtb...i'm learning there's some pretty rugged stuff here even if the west has higher terrain (though the biking does look awesome out there and new england is a goal as well).  side note...the mtb nationals was held at gambrill this past fall.

36 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Right now the timing is still decent with the CAA pre-storm. The PBL improves on approach, which should keep the event either as straight snow, or a touch of rain before changing to snow. The ground temps will cool as snowfall chills the surface with elevated surfaces and grassy areas first to go. It's a standard event, and with it being overnight Sat into Sunday AM, impacts should be pretty low. More of a stats padder by the looks of it. I haven't dug too deep into the event since I've been working and have projects I've been working on for a spring conference, but from what I've seen, its a borderline event with WWA potential for portions of the sub. I don't foresee this changing to something more significant. Missing a prominent southern stream influence to get it to more SECS territory. 

interesting.  usually there's a defined shorthwave or surface low, but this one just kinda pops precip from the 700 layer it seems (i'm not knowledgeable enough to know exactly).  i'll have to look into the details/caa more.

also, after i posted i checked out some of the other models (icon/cmc) and was expecting a whiff, but it looked decent lol.  maybe most people are just ready for a  secs/mecs at this point, but i'm good with a stats padder.

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is a drive-by post telling you, "La Ninas in the Mid Atlantic suck." 

There's several variables necessary for us to get solid storms in the sub-forum in a northern stream dominant setup. Small shifts in amplitude and longitudinal structure of the mean trough can mean whether we get a decent hit or it scurries to the north/south. 

That said, the GFS was a broader look, but it still managed to get snow into the area with a solid snowfall for Rt 50 on south. A sharper trough should help areas to the north. Time will tell if this trend continues, but the setup is far from dead. I would just temper expectations for places north of I-70 for this one. Further south you are, the better the chances are at the moment.  

i think another point about this system is how much of it will stick after a week in the 50s.  i know it can if temps fall quick enough, but it's another variable working against us here.  i've been looking at the gfs periodically and was trying to figure out how it's even getting that stripe of snow.  i guess it's due to mid level forcing because the surface low is ots.

did a loop over at little bennett this afternoon.  ground was still muddy in spots, but doable.  definitely felt good to get a hiit workout in.

i'm considering buying a home in frederick.  this potential storm is going to play an important role in my decision-making.  i'm kidding...sort of.

Just now, MDsnowPRO said:

Do you have a allergy season routine ?

i really don't lol, though i expect an uptick in pollen soon.

sounds like i need to start preparing for allergy season

looked like some flakes mixed in here a little while ago during the light band that moved through.  was driving at the time...wasn't too exciting, but noticeable.

2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

UK Met at 144

this is the energy i need to motivate me to get new tires on my jeep.

regardless of what happens from here, i'm starting to feel my yearly mindset transition from "it's winter, so we should have frozen lakes" to "if it's not gonna snow, let it be mild".  the upcoming forecast is a "game on" to me, though as always in february i'm game for a storm...i'll still be tracking.

20 hours ago, WeatherShak said:

34.5 degrees. Pretty stoked to get this. Really wanted the Tempist but this was on sale at Costco and a good compromise with the wife.

that's on my list of goals (i'm still renting).  i didn't even realize costco sold those.  i have a membership through my mom, but i never go...might have to check that out.  i know davis is also a popular brand.

While the name commanders has grown on me, I can’t get over the fact that there were more fun options available.

i've seen more impossible setups than what's depicted for tuesday.  i'll tune in for 18z/0z.

i didn't think i'd say this, but the name "commanders" is growing on me.  i think they might have gotten the rebrand right, though the rollout was definitely weak.  they still need a new stadium, though.  

i'm just glad that i don't have to call them WFT anymore bc that was miserable.

5 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Thank you. I never understand the pessimism by early February. We had quite a lot of it in here during January too.  Some years we get our biggest snows in March. 

it can snow into early april here, but i do think the ROI gets suspect by early march.  by then, i start tracking cherry blossoms and march madness.  hopefully, we can get one forum-wide snowstorm before spring starts making an appearance.

seems like we're just too close to the surface low.  the areas getting the ice storm are on the western side...in some case, much further west.  surface winds are still out of the south/southeast into western nc/wv and pa.  even if temps are in the low 30s...i don't think that'll be enough.  far western ky/tn has temps in the 20s right now.

snow would have been fun, but it's been a little while since we had a washout.  free car wash.

definitely not a big fan of the name change.  i don't hate it, it's fine, but they could have had more fun with it...instead, they went corporate.  i don't agree with others who say wft was better.  i thought it was kind of annoying actually.  jerseys are a bit disappointing, though.  i expected better based on some of the players' reactions leading up to the rollout.

got an hour of outdoor hoops (practice sesh) in today.  had to get that out of my system before the next cold snap settles in.

8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

But some people are going to be expecting forecasts around ice potential a bit more than 12 hours in advance of the onset...

exactly, it's called forecasting for a reason.  if no models existed, there would be no forecasting beyond extrapolating on prior/current conditions.  nowcasting takes as much skill as a layup line.

i could see that weekend system either weakening upon approach or cutting a little bit inland.  either way, it's a nice airmass in front of it.  seems like snow to start would be a pretty solid bet...assuming there's actually a storm and it's not just noise.

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Sunday looks terrible 

the clipper is sketch, but looks like a vigorous southern vort on the gfs.  hopefully the other models come on board.  kind of difficult to buy in yet.

we need the friday wave to slow down by 6 hours, or something like that.

gonna need to deal with precip chasing cold for the late weekend system (which i think we actually do better here), assuming it's not a slider...we'll see what the gfs paints.