87storms

another batch moving in.  not sure how much loss of daytime will impact it, but we'll see.  i'm pretty much done with this pattern.  it's time for some regularity.

this weather pattern is unlike anything i've ever seen here, at least in the summer.  it feels like the tropics outside, and has for generally the last month.  remarkable stuff.

this week's rains have definitely been of the periodic wave variety.

gfs says have an umbrella ready.  region-wide 0.5"+ through tonight.

looking at satellite it's gonna be difficult to avoid the rains this afternoon.  i don't think the short range guidance do a real good job of smoothing out the precip.  maybe they're too focused on convection.

the downpour last night was wild.  woke me up at 2am and it lasted at least 30 minutes.  just kept teeming.  legitimate stuff, but went largely unnoticed due to the timing.  some of the nearby rain gauges are showing 1.5-2" of rain today and that seems believable based off of what i saw.

9 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Yeah I'm snoozing so far this summer on severe. Granted, I've been busy with work and I moved... But I have not been impressed IMBYs

we've done much better in the rain department than the squall department.

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Per the obs thread - slight risk already in place for Friday from roughly DC and then to the north and east. 

Day 3 risks are fraught with potential to bust

i'm not finding this to be a particularly impressive severe season at all.  i guess we've had a few storms, but not imby.  last year seemed better overall.

we're clearly in the boring storms period of weather.  not a fan of relying on leftover debris from systems coming from nw.  that's very clipper-like and we are absolutely horrendous at clippers.  might need something more organized from the ohio valley or a frontal passage...or a mcs is always acceptable.

9 hours ago, yoda said:

13z HRRR tries to bring a small line through DC around 20z (4pm) and then that is it

ended up being a spectacular afternoon lol.  maybe those cells hold together from pa.  not very inspiring, but who knows.

not the greatest setup today, but hrrr does have some activity early afternoon and then late afternoon.  who gets what and when, who knows.  the more sun fuel the better, so maybe we can get a few hours of it.

20 hours ago, yoda said:

00z NAM soundings are meh to decent... 25 kts shear is meh

yea, might be more garden variety.  cape is decent.  looks like late afternoon or early evening would be the best chance.

looks like wednesday is the next chance for anything decent if we can get enough daytime heating.

4 hours ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah HRRR is very impressive this evening and then again overnight into tomorrow morning

latest hrrr still likes overnight.  might be one of those lines of showers that wake people up because of torrents as opposed to thunder.  

yesterday's storm was definitely electrical here.  pretty good storm overall.  not much wind, though.  interested to see how the weekend plays out.  nam is hit/miss with the next wave this evening, spotty tomorrow, and then overnight saturday thru sunday looks like a washout.

5 hours ago, osfan24 said:

I'm sure it was somewhat of a factor or exacerbated the situation, but the bottom line is they had a very intense, long-duration event and the topography of the area literally checks all boxes in terms of what you would look for when it comes to a town and flash flooding. It is basically built in a valley surrounded on all sides by steep hills, is a narrow street lined with buildings, sits next to a major river and is also built on top of a river. It's essentially sitting in the bottom of a bucket or bowl. Fill up cups of water and dump them into a bowl from all sides and watch what happens.

The other evidence that this is almost entirely topography driven is that nearby Catonsville received even more rain than Ellicott City. While there was some flooding, it was not the catastrophic damage we saw on Main Street. Catonsville is more developed than Ellicott City, but it doesn't have buildings that sit near the Patapsco, nor is it built on top of a river.

flooding and white water rapids flowing down a main street are pretty different.  i'm not gonna say i'm right...not enough knowledge in this area...but i gotta lean towards development off the bat as being a significant issue here.

17 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

No, we haven't. This is like 175% water after ice cubes melt, in the air and stuff. It's not thunderstorm producing. 

we may not have gotten much severe, though we rarely do well with that because we're the king of breeze, not gusts - which are usually more localized here unless we're getting a derecho (and that occurs about as often as a blizzard).  this is a palm beach airmass.  i expect gully washers and some lightning.  any wind is a bonus, if you like you wind.

we can do well with storms in these stagnant type air masses.  here's hoping for some good bangers this afternoon and/or tomorrow.  the lwx disco mentioned lightning as a risk:

The severe (large hail/damaging wind) threat this afternoon
should be relatively limited given marginal lapse rates and
shear, but a few strong wind gusts are possible with more
robust/water- loaded updrafts. Frequent lightning may be a
hazard given large areas of updrafts in the 0 to -15 C region,
suggesting lots of suspended small ice particles (graupel) which
would be favorable for excess charge separation. This could
prove especially hazardous given the holiday weekend and lots of
ongoing outdoor activities, so even though storms may
technically not be severe, they could prove just as dangerous.

On 5/24/2018 at 3:13 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

This severe stuff drives me crazy. It's always Slight or MRGL Risk. UGH! Remember when thunderstorms were so rich? 

still early in the season.  all things considered, we've done pretty well in that category so far.

finally a good soaker here with the new incoming stuff.  no thunder yet, so it seems like that part of the storms is fading.

some of our better storms take this southeast track from the m/d line.  i'm interested in seeing how far south this goes.  i've seen some electrical storms with that trajectory before, for whatever reason.

6 hours ago, Round Hill WX said:

Hell of a light show for the past 2 hours here in Round Hill. 

that thing came through poppin' at around 3am last night.  woke me up.  nice fireworks display for about an hour.

To echo others, vivid lightning on the backstretch.

Still rain and lightning (loudest thunder yet just now). Had some decent gusts here for a while. I’m gonna go with a B+ grade here.

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Straight up monsoon outside.  Initial few wind gusts but the story here has been the heavy, heavy rain and lightning.  

Same. Overall healthy storm here. Just not severe, but how many here are.