Indystorm

TWC now has their TorCon up to 9 in the high risk area.  It was 10 on 4/27/11.

It is interesting as well that Amarillo has issued a blizzard warning for early Wed pre dawn hours  and not too far se of there we have an SPC meso discussion for a possible svr wx watch this Tuesday evening.

Yes, definitely a sleet/snow/sleet mix in my part of Griffith.  Interesting temp vertical profile.

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Terrible News

I extend my deepest condolences.  Valued him as member of the WGN weather team.

HRRR progs SiG TOR around 3 in the affected area late this afternoon into the early evening.

Did not expect svr possibilities that far nw so soon.  NAM seems to be discounting cloud breaks and clearing showing up on satellite as SPC notes.   Could be more interesting than  initially expected for today .

So far this season a number of parameters are similar to 2011.....slow start to season and low number of tornadoes.....moderate La Nina, cold outbreak in far southern regions.  I am somewhat apprehensive about what this spring may bring.

20 minutes ago, hoosierwx said:

Today is the ninth anniversary of the big outbreak that included the Henryville tornado. The funnel cloud that eventually became that tornado passed about 5 miles to my south.

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Yeah, that spring was so doggone hot temp wise.  This outbreak and the abnormal warmth are what I remember.

I well remember March 12, 2006 when the KC area in the morning had temps in the 40's with much warmer air aloft and severe storms that morphed into tornadoes across MO and central IL with Springfield IL being hit with two tornadoes that evening.

GFS has been hinting at something in this time frame as well.  But it's a ways off yet.  Wait and see.  

Well, I just got my first Covid vaccine today at Munster Community hospital.  (Pfizer)   Here's to science and our first responders!

Looks to be mainly QLCS severe with a possible few spin ups unless a greater degree of clearing can take place.

17 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Obviously there's more to it than this, but with the western/southwestern drought already pretty far along and likely to continue/worsen and the bona fide Nina, it does set off some alarm bells in my head for a potentially active Spring severe season in the Midwest.  Certainly if it does turn out to be active, it won't be a thing where you look back and wonder 'gee, how did that happen'?

I'm thinking that the dry line will be displaced farther east than usual which has seemed to have happened in recent seasons with a  relative lack of Plains activity.  Way out on the models, of course, but I'd watch the March 4-5  time frame now for lower and possibly mid MS valley for severe wx.

I have to admit the wind is increasing more than I expected for this system.

But spring and svr wx season is coming...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
442 PM EST MON FEB 15 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHWESTERN DOUGHERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
  NORTHWESTERN BAKER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
  EASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
  EAST CENTRAL EARLY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
  
* UNTIL 515 PM EST.  
      
* AT 442 PM EST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ARLINGTON, OR 12 MILES NORTH OF  
  COLQUITT, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS   
           MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE   
           HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
           BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE   
           DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  MORGAN AND LEARY AROUND 455 PM EST.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
COMMISSARY HILL, IVEYS MILL, MILFORD, CRESTVIEW, BERMUDA,  
DOUGLASVILLE, HOLT, PATMOS AND DAMASCUS.  
  

Nor do winter warnings often occur from southern TX to Maine.

Just now, schoeppeya said:

Seems like there is actually a decent sized Carmel crew on here

And I used to live in Fortville for six years so I pay attention to what is going on down Indpls-Carmel way.

As radar indicates the heavier returns are now approaching the Kankakee valley from the sw.  That 700 mb low in eastern KS is great to ensure we get the goods in Chicagoland.

42 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd say it's increasingly likely that somebody in Cook county pulls 20".  Maybe around 50/50 odds of 2 feet.

Record breaker over Jan. 1967 storm......23 inches I believe.

That Chicago LES band extends as far ne as Muskegon.  Chicago will really get it today.

9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Could get into rarefied air depending on how this plays out.  The only time Indianapolis had a snow depth of 17"+ was in the last week of January 1978, when it peaked right at 20" on Jan 27-28, 1978.

And I was living in Indpls at that time attending seminary.  Apartment where I lived lost power for two days.  I feel fortunate enough to have experienced that storm and Chicago's Jan. 26-27 1967 historic snowstorm as well while living in Hobart Indiana.

Aside from our Chi-town area concerns I just saw that 2.5 million Texas customers are without power due to an excess of demand over capacity with the power grid due to the storm.

3 minutes ago, Courtney_snow said:

Can we defund the NWS and models? Absolutely worthless. If models are only accurate a day out, we don’t need them. I can look outside and see what it’s doing. 

Models are not the be all and end all in forecasting even though we have fun with them here.  They are a useful tool to be used with good old fashioned synoptic meteorology..

Just now, Frog Town said:

I gotta ask the question again.  If this keeps trending stronger/amped, could Blizzard conditions materialize somewhere.  And if so, where's the most likely place.  

I've been reading that NWS is not expecting wind and duration to meet the criteria at present.  Mainly heavy snowfall rates.

1 minute ago, IWXwx said:

 

That's why I trust Hoosier and Ricky.  lol